The NFL regular season is two weeks away and this weekend is a big one for drafts, redraft and dynasty. It’s so exciting that we’re on the doorstep of what will be another great NFL season.
What’s more fun than hitting on a draft sleeper with nearly zero cost? Or, for that matter, simply hitting on a rookie who fell in your rookie draft, even if not considered a “deep” sleeper? The answer to both questions is “very little.” Whether late in the first round, or at the end of your rookie draft, having a draft pick pan out is always as exciting as it is impactful.
I realize the term “sleeper” can be defined in many different ways. For this article, I’m simply focusing on a few players who aren’t marquee names but who have every opportunity to see field time over the next year or two, and the opportunity to be the next Puka Nacua, Jayden Reed, Tank Dell or even De’Von Achane. While hitting on a non-first round rookie player takes as much luck as it does science, we can still take a well-informed spin of the wheel.
We’re going to go round-by-round (dynasty rookie draft ADP), with the exception of the first, talking about at least one player from each to consider. As always, any ranking data comes from the world’s first and largest dynasty site DynastyLeagueFootball (DLF) where all my, and others’, rankings can be found.
Round 2
I’m already on record as saying the 2024 rookie draft has the deepest second tier of players I’ve ever seen. This makes for some great drafting late into the first round to very early into the third. I have two players I’m looking for in round two.
Jaylen Wright, RB, MIA
Overall: 16 Positional Rank: RB3
I didn’t want to like Jaylen Wright’s tape as much as I did, especially considering his somewhat meager collegiate resume and lack of significant receiving production. But not-so hidden in the stats is his light usage and 7.4 YPC mark in 2023. For what it’s worth, he also tallied a career high in receptions with 22.
To be sure, there are holes in Wright’s game. Though he blazed a 4.38 40 at the NFL combine, he doesn’t possess the hip swivel or phone booth agility that I normally look for in my backs. But we’re also talking the second round here. His size (5-foot-10/210 pounds) is fine, his run-style is fluid and bursty, and he possesses enough agility, when combined with his speed, to leverage space. While I’m concerned about his rookie-year situation in Miami, I’ll draft him in my rookie second round as the required capital is low and he’ll get a chance to produce sooner rather than later.
Bo Nix, QB, DEN
Overall: 27 Positional Rank: QB5
I’m not going to mince words here. I believe most fantasy managers, including in SuperFlex leagues, are missing the boat on Nix, especially as this year’s rookie QB5. Residing in the Pacific Northwest, I had a lot of opportunities to see Nix in action and, with five years of collegiate experience on his resume, I have a reasonable level of confidence that he’s the real deal.
Nix can make all the throws, is heady in the pocket and has the mobility to churn out material yardage with his feet when plays break down. He possesses a passer-first mentality while using his mobility to move the pocket to extend plays.
I’m not ready to call him the next Drew Brees, but let’s just say that I won’t be completely surprised if he’s one of the top two quarterbacks from this class when we look back years from now.
Round 3
Jalen McMillan, WR, TB
Overall: 22 Positional Rank: WR13
If you follow my work here, you know I’ve been pounding the table for McMillan and I’m nothing if not persistent and consistent — here he is again!
The beautiful thing about this offseason is that McMillan has dropped into the third round rather consistently, sometimes into the late selections of the round. While I’m comfortable drafting him late in the second round, I’ll take the bargain in the third when I can get it. In my 14 dynasty leagues, I drafted him in 11, though I did trade him away in a SuperFlex league as part of a package to take a shot on Justin Fields.
McMillan is a crafty receiver who can get to, and on top of, the secondary in a hurry. He’s a fluid route runner who knows how to get open. If not for injury, he would have pushed Rome Odunze to be Washington’s top receiver in 2023, as he did in 2022. McMillan outproduced Odunze in 2022 in two of the three categories, though the two similarly produced.
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Pick up The Athletic 2024 Fantasy Football Guide to read expert evaluations.
Buy
Round 4
Jordan Whittington, WR, LAR
Overall: 45 Positional Rank: WR22
Move over my target from earlier in the year, Malik Washington.
Truth be told, I loved Whittington’s Texas tape and was shocked when the 6-foot-1, 202-pound receiver fell to the sixth round. A five-year player at Texas, I’ll offer that his skill-set and ability is far better than his pedestrian production as a Longhorn.
I’ve been watching from the opening of rookie camp to see if the intelligent and reliable Whittington would pop and, though it didn’t come until two weeks ago in the preseason, there has been talk. He’s flying up rankings lists as you read this! In fact, you may now be lucky to find him in the fourth round of rookie drafts. Puka Nacua is fresh in the minds of all fantasy football managers and it’s a coincidence that Whittington’s path looks eerily similar. Nacua, himself, was also late-drafted by the Rams — Round 5.
I may break the internet with this statement but I like(d) Whittington’s game and tape more than that of Nacua when he entered the draft.
Round 5
Jared Wiley, TE, KC
Overall: 48 Positional Rank: TE5
The Chiefs got a steal when they selected Wiley in the fourth round, though tight ends are notoriously difficult to project to the NFL, let alone fantasy.
When drafting rookie tight ends, while I do look for skill-set, ability and dynamic athleticism, I’m far more interested in two other variables: 1.) Quarterback quality 2.) Scheme. Without question, the Chiefs possess both. Travis Kelce remains a top player at the position, but he also turns 35 in October. Wiley is going to have to wait a year or two before getting a chance to do his best Kelce imitation. But what if the injury bug bites?
Projecting tight ends into the NFL remains a top difficulty and this holds true for fantasy as well. A steep learning curve, when combined with having enough size-speed dynamic to be, not only a viable threat in pass patterns, but also as a dependable blocker, immediately limits the field. Mix in the fact that most top tight ends don’t come from Round 1 of the NFL draft, but instead Rounds 2-4, and the challenge becomes clear.
Give me a young player who showed ability in college, plays with a seasoned future HOF quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, and behind one of the best tight ends to ever play the game — Jared Wiley is not guaranteed to be the next Travis Kelce, but he’s got the most fertile soil of any 2024 rookie tight end. And in your rookie fifth round? Yes, please!
Summary
All offseason I’ve heard dynasty managers talking about finding the next Puka Nacua, Tank Dell or even Brock Purdy. If it were only so easy. The ingredients required to make a late-round sleeper hit are many, varied and often obscure. So much so that you will fail far more times than you will succeed.
For my money, I always start with quarterback quality, offensive consistency/scheme, which includes coaching stability, then mentorship. Not being “the guy” to begin their careers is an important element in removing pressure and finding production in Year 1. Add a pinch of an unsettled depth chart and you have just the right mix for your sleeper “cookie.”
I hope you enjoyed this look at my favorite 2024 rookie sleepers. If you have any questions or comments, please consider leaving a note below. I look forward to interacting with my readers. Please give me a follow on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff
As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!
(Top photo of Jordan Whittington: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
