The head of the House Democratic Caucus said Tuesday that he’s expecting conservative Republicans to cave and back a Senate-passed budget bill when it hits the floor of the lower chamber, which is scheduled to happen later this week.
Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said Republicans frequently gripe privately about parts of President Trump’s agenda, but then drop their reservations under pressure from the president when it comes time to vote.
“It’s pretty clear that House Republicans generally say one thing when they’re in an elevator with us or with you,” Aguilar told reporters in the Capitol. “And then they do something else when they are given an opportunity to vote on the floor.”
Aguilar is predicting those dynamics will also govern the debate over the sweeping budget blueprint passed by the Senate last week, which has drawn howls from a number of House conservatives who fear it will pile trillions of dollars onto the national debt.
Conservative Republican in the House, however, insist that won’t be the case.
A number of them said Tuesday that they’ll oppose the Senate bill if Johnson brings it to the floor — a threat that would doom the proposal in the House, where Republicans have only a hairline majority.
To up the pressure on the hold-outs, Trump invited a number of conservatives to the White House on Tuesday afternoon. Several of those Republicans have refused the invitation, including House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris (R-Md.), who suggested there’s nothing the president can say to change his mind.
“There’s nothing that I can hear at the White House that I don’t understand about the situation,” he told reporters.
The debate is the latest — and perhaps most consequential — challenge facing Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) since he took the gavel in late 2023. The budget proposal is a crucial step in enacting Trump’s domestic priorities — including an extension of tax cuts, a crackdown on immigration and an expansion of energy production — because it empowers Republicans to pass the package through Congress without Democratic obstructions.
House conservatives, however, are furious with the budget drafted by Senate Republicans, saying the spending cuts it promotes are insufficient to rein in deficit spending. They’re also up in arms over the Senate’s adoption of a budget gimmick empowering upper chamber Republicans to claim that the tax cut extensions will add $0 to the debt — a far cry from the $4 trillion deficit impact estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.
Aguilar, though, said Democrats anticipate that those hold-outs will experience a change of heart when the pressure grows from the White House and they’re being blamed for blocking Trump’s agenda.
“Speaker Johnson is pretty good at counting to 200, but he clearly can’t count much beyond that — without Donald Trump putting his thumb on the scale. That’s why he’s bringing ’em down to 1600 Pennsylvania. That’s why it’s a full-court press,” Aguilar said. “But many of these Republicans who say that they are no votes will ultimately cave.”
“Generally, the only one who we can believe is Thomas Massie, who’s principled and if he says he’s a no he’s going to be a no,” he continued. “Everyone else generally will say one thing until they get a phone call from the president.”