LAHAINA, Hawaii — Before this week, I’d heard stories about “Maui magic,” how games inside the Lahaina Civic Center just somehow got good when the final buzzer neared.
Now I get it.
Consider this one last dispatch from Hawaii. One final disclaimer: Many thanks to the kind people of Maui, who so graciously hosted the college basketball community this week only 15 months after wildfires ravaged the island. Devastating to see the damage in person, but in speaking with several locals — many of whom lost their homes, or worse — it’s clear how glad they were that the Maui Invitational returned to its rightful home. Me too.
Now, back to basketball.
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As Maui Invitational marks 40 years, it returns to a home forever changed
1. Auburn deserves to be No. 1, a ranking befitting the country’s best team
And Johni Broome — the closest thing we’ll have to Zach Edey this season — is the current front-runner for National Player of the Year. Long season, I know. But after Feast Week, the dust always settles somewhat, and right now? Broome is the barometer for every other player in the country.
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Marks: After winning Maui, Auburn and Johni Broome look like college basketball’s best
The same should be said of his team. As of this writing, Auburn is the only team in the country with a top-five adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking, per KenPom. It has beaten three top-12 teams, plus Memphis, which is probably going to be in that range come Monday’s new AP poll. (If it isn’t, and UConn, which shockingly went 0-3 this week, is ranked higher, then the poll is more of a farce than normal.) Broome deserves so much of the spotlight behind Auburn’s incredible start, but frankly, Bruce Pearl’s team has all the pieces necessary to win a national title.
This is clearly a defensive miss by Memphis big Moussa Cisse, but what a find by Chad Baker-Mazara, one of the more underrated utility players in the country:
After Auburn blew out North Carolina and Memphis, a lot of the conversation is going to be offensively oriented, not wrongly so. But the reason I’m so high on the Tigers? Don’t forget they trailed by 18 vs. No. 5 Iowa State and clawed all the way back to beat a team with a top-five offense in its own right — mostly by getting stops. Check out the first few possessions of the second half, when Auburn started to mount its comeback. First, Baker-Mazara recovers with his length and pokes it away from Keshon Gilbert, maybe the best guard I saw in Maui:
A few possessions later, Denver Jones denies Tamin Lipsey near the sideline, Broome forces Joshua Jefferson back to the center of the court — and Dylan Cardwell is there waiting with timely help. Only, it’s not timely; it’s calculated. Watch how Cardwell steps up as soon as Broome puts a foot out to block Jefferson’s initial read to Lipsey:
And then, the game-deciding defensive stand. This is just really good stuff from Denver Jones. Miles Kelly overplays Gilbert once he receives the handoff, and Jones takes a step to his right to fake like he’s going to stay with Cyclones guard Curtis Jones — but it’s actually a stunt, which is effective enough to force Gilbert ever so slightly back into Kelly, who pokes it away for the game-saving steal:
Auburn’s offense deserves its love, too. But its defense is the reason it picked up its best win this week, over a Cyclones team that should challenge Kansas for the Big 12 title.
2. UConn goes 0-3. Time to panic?
There won’t be a more shocking result this Feast Week than the two-time defending national champs going winless in Hawaii, including a one-point loss to Colorado in which it led by double digits, and then a blowout loss to feisty Dayton. Clearly, these aren’t the same Huskies of the past two years — but why?
Because defensively, UConn is pretty “dreadful” right now, to use Dan Hurley’s own words. In three games, UConn allowed 1.34, 1.20 and 1.31 points per possession to Memphis, Colorado and Dayton, respectively; it accordingly dropped all the way to 84th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. As of this writing, the Huskies are one of the worst teams nationally in terms of 3-point defense — and plays like this are why. Solo Ball either miscommunicates or loses track of his man on the weak side, takes a gamble to try doubling Dayton big Zed Key and winds up wildly out of whack, which just wrecks UConn’s defensive rotations:
Not to belabor the point, but c’mon. Samson Johnson lifts to hedge, isn’t quick enough getting back, Alex Karaban covers for him — but then Johnson doubles again, rather than assuming Karaban’s man. That prevents Ball from staying with Colorado guard RJ Smith in the corner, and eventually Hassan Diarra is left in no man’s land trying to cover two guys. As soon as he commits to Smith, boom, there’s the pass and open 3 for Julian Hammond III (who had 16 points and four 3s this game):
These sorts of rotational errors simply didn’t happen the past two seasons with UConn’s continuity. And while they’ll get better — Hurley and his staff are too good for them not to — the Huskies’ long-term upside probably isn’t what we thought it was. Still almost certainly an NCAA Tournament team, but any dreams of a three-peat seem like just that right now: dreams.
Lastly, Hurley also sorely misses Donovan Clingan, whose ability to defend physically without fouling — not to mention his rim protection — was so integral to UConn’s run last season. Both of UConn’s primary bigs, Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr., fouled out vs. Memphis and Colorado. That was especially critical down the stretch vs. Colorado, when the 6-foot-8 Karaban got stuck as UConn’s de facto center. Reed’s foul tendencies date back to Michigan — he had 12 games with the Wolverines with four or five personal fouls — but I might consider starting him over Johnson if I were Hurley. It’s a slight drop-off in terms of rim protection, but Reed is fouling at just under half Sampson’s rate through seven games, per KenPom — 4.9 vs. 8.4 percent of possessions — while offering a major upgrade as a rebounder. Reed is a top-15 offensive and defensive rebounder on a per-possession basis, per KenPom. But in the wake of this week’s nightmare, those are the sorts of thought experiments UConn’s staff will be toying with.
3. Memphis guard Tyrese Hunter, a transfer portal All-American?
Wisconsin guard John Tonje — who has two 30-point-plus games vs. high-majors already this season — is my front-runner for “Best Transfer Portal Pickup” through November. He’s been sensational, and the reason why the Badgers are 7-0 with the best offense of Greg Gard’s head coaching tenure. But if I were picking the five best transfers so far this season nationwide, Hunter — the former Iowa State and Texas guard — would easily be one of my picks. He’s been awesome and is experiencing the sort of late-career shooting renaissance that Penny Hardaway last authored with David Jones.
Jones, Memphis’ leading scorer last season, never shot above 30 percent from 3 in his first three seasons at DePaul and St. John’s. But in one season at Memphis, he canned 38 percent of his triples — and took 6.5 per game, so a decently high volume — and earned first-team All-AAC honors. Hunter is on a similar trajectory. Unlike Jones, he’s steadily improved as a 3-point shooter throughout his career — from 27.4 percent as a freshman to 34.2 percent last season — but doing this? Becoming a top-60 shooter nationally, at 52.4 percent from 3? Hunter made 12 3s (!!) in Memphis’ consecutive wins over UConn and Michigan State, and three of his seven career games with four-plus made 3s have now come in his first month at Memphis. He’s had some fortuitous bounces — like this one — but he’s not afraid to let it rip if he gets an inch of daylight as a pick-and-roll handler; he’s made seven of nine 3s in those situations, per Synergy:
And playing alongside PJ Haggerty and Colby Rogers, who can also both shoot and handle, Hunter is going to get more than his fair share of open kickouts, too:
Do I expect Hunter to shoot that well all season? No. The rims in Maui were certainly kind to him, and I counted at least three 3s that he either banked in or got a favorable roll, including the one above. But Hunter’s confidence is legitimate, and he’s going to have the green light in Hardaway’s offense. Memphis is the nation’s best 3-point shooting team through November, making just under 47 percent from deep.
More generally, beating both UConn and Michigan State is huge for the Tigers’ NCAA Tournament resume, since their conference schedule in the American is so lackluster. Now they need to take advantage of their four upcoming high-major nonconference games vs. Clemson, Virginia, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. This is clearly the team to beat in the AAC and should be ranked in the top 20 at minimum.
4. North Carolina’s frontcourt might be a fatal flaw
I’m not really a “take” guy — unless we’re talking about the New York Jets — and I especially try to stay away from bold proclamations early. But I’ve now seen North Carolina play five times in person, and, well, let’s say this stat kind of says it all:
North Carolina has now allowed 50 points in the paint twice in seven games this season (also versus Kansas). They allowed 50 points in the paint just twice combined over the previous 2 seasons.
— Jared Berson (@JaredBerson) November 28, 2024
Here’s another that will make UNC fans want to avert their eyes: Per KenPom, UNC is offensive rebounding under 30 percent of its missed shots for the first time since … 2002-03, Matt Doherty’s last season. Gulp.
North Carolina fans will berate Hubert Davis for not signing a starting-caliber center this summer, but none of the bigs UNC flirted with — Aaron Bradshaw (currently not with Ohio State’s program), Jonas Aidoo (injured, has played 20 minutes all season), and Cliff Omoruyi (averaging 5.8 points and four rebounds in under 20 minutes per game vs. high-major opponents) — have been awesome at their new schools. The fact of the matter is, the Tar Heels were never going to be able to replace Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram’s productivity in one offseason, especially not while also retaining first-team All-American RJ Davis. UNC’s staff clearly overestimated what junior center Jalen Washington and graduate forward Jae’Lyn Withers were capable of — and whiffing on 6-foot-7 Belmont transfer Cade Tyson, who has played three minutes or less vs. UNC’s four “real” opponents, doesn’t help, either. It’s early, but with the Tar Heels now 0-3 vs. high-major opponents, it’s at least fair to question whether Davis can coach his way around this suboptimal roster construction.
Just watch what Michigan State big Jaxon Kohler, a fine but hardly special player, does to Washington. Washington’s lack of strength is apparent as Kohler backs him down, and then he cooks Washington with his footwork, getting the UNC junior to leave his feet completely going for the recovery block. Stay down, man!
Withers is more of a tweener at the four, but if I were Hubert Davis, I’d instead consider starting five-star freshman Drake Powell, whose confidence and role grew mightily in Maui. Powell — a projected lottery pick, and arguably the team’s best defensive player — had the game-deciding 3 vs. Dayton, then dropped a career-high 18 vs. Michigan State, including four made 3s. He’s still relatively raw, but his upside is so high, and his willingness to stick his nose in for rebounds, and the athleticism to get them, despite only being 6-foot-6, is encouraging. Maybe Davis doesn’t pull that rip cord before Alabama comes to town next week, but it feels like a matter of time leaving Maui.
5. On Michigan State and Iowa State
Two more things before we all pig out on Thanksgiving leftovers:
• Michigan State’s shooting woes are well-documented. After going 4-of-16 from 3 vs. UNC, the Spartans are now 361st nationally (out of 364 Division-I teams) from behind the arc, making just 22.4 percent of their triples. But dare I say, I’m cautiously optimistic about Tom Izzo’s team long term in spite of them? Sparty’s defense is legit (17th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and top 20 in defensive rebounding rate). But on top of that, Xavier Booker, the former five-star big, finally seemed to realize he’s 6-foot-11 with pogo sticks for legs against North Carolina. His 12 points and seven rebounds came at the expense of UNC’s complete dearth of size, but a win is a win. If Izzo can get Booker going a little and keep Tre Holloman (four 3s in Maui) ascending, MSU might end up being a top three or four team in the Big Ten. My not-so-hot take: Freshman guard Jase Richardson, who missed the UNC game due to an elbow to the head suffered against Memphis, is this team’s clear best player by February.
• Iowa State deserves better than to be relegated this deep in a column. The Cyclones were a possession away from beating Auburn, and building an 18-point lead against that type of wagon is one of the more impressive halves I’ve watched a team play this month.
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Sure, T.J. Otzelberger’s defense is turning teams over like normal — but can we talk about his offense? Iowa State is top five in adjusted offensive efficiency right now, per KenPom, and has scored at least 82 points in every game this season. Otzelberger has never had a team finish in the top 30 of adjusted offensive efficiency in eight seasons as a head coach, but he’s also never had guards that can go like his quartet of Gilbert — the best guard in Maui this weekend — Lipsey, Jones, and Milan Momcilovic, who had 24 points and six 3s vs. Colorado on Wednesday. Per Synergy, Iowa State is in the 99th percentile nationally in transition offense, shooting a blistering 80 percent on 2s and 41.7 percent on 3s in the fast break. Will be fascinating to see if that keeps up in Big 12 play, but if so? Why can’t the Cyclones win the conference?
(Photo of UConn coach Dan Hurley: Marco Garcia / Imagn Images)
