There are a number of big games this week in college football and my model has a projection for each one. There’s nothing drastically different in any of the biggest games of the week. My projection model likes the betting favorites to win, but likes Oregon, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and USC a touch more than the spread in the biggest games of the week.
My model favors Ohio State by just two points in Eugene against the Ducks, which is even tighter than the 3.5-point spread on BetMGM. Penn State is projected to beat USC by 3.5 points in Los Angeles. Big Ten teams have not done well when going west so far this season. In the SEC, my model likes Texas by 13.5 points against Oklahoma and Ole Miss by four points at LSU.
In one of the more notable differences of the week, my model only favors BYU by half a point against Arizona. That spread was 5.5 points earlier in the week, but has been moving to Arizona. Make sure to get your bets in early in the week!
For context, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 7 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my Week 6 best bets, which are based on my model’s projections.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 7 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
(Photo of Jaydon Blue: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
