It was a rough week forecasting games.
I went 5-4 straight up and once again missed all three of the stat stuffers. Worse yet: My streak of correctly predicting three consecutive upsets went up in flames because North Carolina couldn’t protect a 20-0 lead against Duke.
So, now I’m 32-13 picking outright winners and 3-2 on my upset specials.
We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There is only one Top 25 matchup, but plenty of intriguing games.
Most passing yards
UNLV, ranked for the first time since moving up the FBS level in 1978, welcomes Kyle McCord, the nation’s leader with 364.8 passing yards per game, and the Syracuse Orange to Allegiant Stadium in what should be a very entertaining game. McCord (380-plus passing yards, three TDs) will put up numbers, but the Rebels are going to pull out the win and cover the six-point spread.
Most rushing yards
UCF is coming off a crushing home loss to Colorado as a two-touchdown favorite and is traveling to Gainesville to face a Florida defense that’s allowed a combined 550 yards rushing in its last two games. I expect a heavy workload for RJ Harvey (25-plus carries, 190-plus rushing yards, two TDs) in a game that exceeds the 61.5 over/under line. Florida, a slight underdog (+2.5), rallies to win behind Graham Mertz (300-plus passing yards, two TDs) in a Saturday night upset in The Swamp.
Last season, RJ Harvey (@rjharvey07) impressed us with a speed of 19.6 mph, but now he’s hitting an incredible 20.8! 🔥 #UCF has a gem 💎 #ReelSpeed pic.twitter.com/U91DfLUdU9
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) October 1, 2024
Most receiving yards
Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman has been flinging it a lot and De’Zhaun Stribling has been on the receiving end of some big plays. His 10 catches of 20 yards or more are tied for second nationally. I’ve got Stribling down for eight catches for 190-plus yards and two touchdowns and for the Cowboys to escape with a four-point win at home against West Virginia.
Five big games
No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M (-2.5)
Missouri has not been very explosive on offense (15 plays of 20-plus yards) — which is a big surprise. Neither have the Aggies (19 plays of 20-plus yards) — which isn’t. This comes down to which team establishes the run better and takes opportunities away from the other guys. Nate Noel (100-plus total yards, one TD) will keep the Tigers in it, but Le’Veon Moss (100-plus total yards, one TD) and Marcel Reed (60-plus rushing yards, one TD) will make more plays before Nic Scourton secures the five-point Aggies’ win with a sack and fumble recovery.
SMU at No. 22 Louisville (-7)
SMU is tied for the national lead with 14 turnovers gained. Louisville committed its first three turnovers of the season in last week’s 31-24 loss at Notre Dame. At home, Louisville will do a better job protecting it and Tyler Shough (250-plus passing yards, three TDs) will find a way to outduel Kevin Jennings (230-plus passing yards, three TDs) in a thrilling game the Cardinals win by a field goal.
No. 12 Ole Miss (-9.5) at South Carolina
Ole Miss lost to Kentucky last week, and South Carolina crushed those same Wildcats, 31-6, in Lexington on Sept. 7. Yet Ole Miss is a strong favorite here. Lane Kiffin’s team posted gaudy numbers against a soft early schedule — 600-plus yards and 40-plus points in each of the first four games — but managed only 353 total yards and 17 points in the loss to Kentucky.
The burning questions for me: Can South Carolina slow down Tre Harris and Juice Wells (a former Gamecock), and can Ole Miss block SEC sack leader Kyle Kennard? Either way, I expect a thrilling one-score game won by the Rebels on a late Wells touchdown.
No. 4 Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas
Sam Pittman’s team has an opportunity to improve to 2-1 in the SEC for the first time since 2011. That, however, will be a tough task. Arkansas hasn’t defeated a top-five team since 1999 but has won the last three meetings against the Volunteers.
Here’s the reality: Arkansas QB Taylen Green has been pressured a lot, and the Vols stuff the run (1.6 yards per carry allowed) and get after the quarterback as well as anyone. Arkansas will become the first team to take a lead on Tennessee this season, but Nico Iamaleava (220-plus total yards, two TDs) and the Vols take home a 10-point win.
No. 8 Miami (-10.5) at Cal
Cal’s defense has been the story, holding opponents to 14 points or fewer all four games and picking off an FBS-leading 10 passes. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza, meanwhile, is a Miami-born kid doing a good job protecting the ball. This all feels like a recipe for disaster for the Hurricanes. But Cam Ward (300-plus total yards, three total TDs) is special and Miami finds a way to survive a thriller yet again.
O-T-T-T-O-G-O!!! pic.twitter.com/rM5fG6PxxY
— CFB Home (@CFBHome) September 30, 2024
Upset alert
No. 10 Michigan at Washington (-2.5)
The Wolverines have defeated USC and Minnesota by identical 27-24 scores in back-to-back weeks despite throwing for a combined 118 yards with Alex Orji at quarterback. It makes perfect sense to believe Michigan is due to take a loss in a rematch of last year’s national championship game.
GO DEEPER
The Michigan-Washington rematch is a battle of rebuilds that don’t look the same
But the Huskies have struggled to win tight games against good running teams such as Washington State and Rutgers thus far. Kalel Mullings will force some more missed tackles (10) and run for 100-plus yards and a touchdown as Michigan wins another game by a field goal.
Kalel Mullings This Season
77 Carries
540 Yards
6 Touchdowns
7.0 YPCTop 5 RB In College Football〽️
— Will Johnson Enjoyer 〽️ (@WillJEnjoyer) October 1, 2024
Week 5 report card
• I had a bad week picking games, but I’d do it again to watch another all-time classic between Georgia and Alabama. I predicted Kirby Smart would put an end to his misery against the Crimson Tide, with a late field goal delivering a two-point win for the Bulldogs. Like Georgia’s defense, I didn’t envision 17-year-old Ryan Williams doing the unthinkable on that 75-yard touchdown strike. But what an amazing bleeping game!
• I still can’t believe Duke is 5-0. I thought for sure Mack Brown would continue his head-to-head streak against Manny Diaz. I thought UNC’s Omarion Hampton (150-plus rushing yards, three TDs) would get the last word over Blue Devils quarterback Maalik Murphy (250-plus passing yards, three TDs). Nope. It was Duke’s Peyton Jones scoring on a 20-yard touchdown run to complete the amazing comeback.
• Colorado’s Travis Hunter had a big performance to raise his status in the Heisman race, catching nine passes for 89 yards and one touchdown and intercepting KJ Jefferson once (as I predicted). But the Buffaloes shut down Harvey and blew out the Knights 48-21. I said UCF would win a close one by a field goal because of Harvey’s exploits (169 total yards, one TD). Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr. led all receivers last week with 12 catches for 192 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-27 loss to Old Dominion.
• One of my worst set of predictions came in the Utah-Arizona game. I said Utah’s Micah Bernard would blow up against Arizona. He finished with only 91 yards rushing, about one-half of the 180 yards I predicted. And I said Utah would cover the spread and win by two scores. Didn’t happen. Arizona rolled, 23-10.
• My penchant for predicting the right stat stuffer a week or two early continued with the leading rusher. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty — my pick to lead all rushers in Week 4 — ran for 259 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-24 win over Washington State. I predicted a close game. I was wrong.
• Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel did not lead all FBS passers last week or eclipse the 400-yard mark against UCLA for the 10th time in his career. But he did throw three touchdown passes and the Ducks beat the Bruins by more than two scores — as I said they would — in a 34-13 victory. I also believe Oklahoma still misses him badly. North Texas’ Chandler Morris — my pick to lead all passers in Week 3 — did it last week, with 439 yards and five touchdowns in a 52-20 win over Tulsa.
• I said Kansas State would cover the spread and beat Oklahoma State by eight points behind a solid performance from Avery Johnson (200-plus total yards, two TDs) and by keeping Ollie Gordon II in check (70 rushing yards or fewer). The Wildcats cruised to a 42-20 win in Manhattan behind Johnson (319 total yards, five total TDs) and did hold Gordon in check (76 rushing yards).
• I said Notre Dame would keep the ball on the ground against Louisville (rushing for 200-plus yards), force the Cardinals to settle for field goals in the red zone and get revenge for last year’s road loss with a six-point win. The Irish didn’t run it as well as I thought they would (117 rushing yards), but they did win the game, 31-24.
• I told you Illinois would keep it within a touchdown and much closer than the 18-point spread against Penn State because Luke Altmyer (10 TDs, zero INTs this season) wouldn’t commit a turnover. He threw his first interception late in the fourth quarter. I correctly forecasted Penn State prevailing because of its running game, with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combining for 160-plus yards and two touchdowns. They finished with 196 combined rushing yards and two scores.
(Photos of Cam Ward, Oskie: James Gilbert, Bob Kupbens / Getty Images)
