Two months ago, I peered into my crystal ball to predict this season’s inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Now, after the rigors of preseason camp, I’ve gathered up a lot of intel and feel more dialed in on how this year could play out.
Keep in mind that the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids and seven at-large spots are given to the next highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 in the 12-team Playoff.
What’s changed?
Then: Utah (No.4); Texas (No. 5); Oregon (No. 6); Notre Dame (No. 8); Alabama (No. 9); Penn State (No. 10); Miami (No. 11)
Now: Kansas State (No. 4); Oregon (No. 5); Texas (No. 6); Alabama (No. 8); Miami (No. 9); Notre Dame (No. 10); Penn State (No. 11)
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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: The Athletic’s 12-team bracket
1. Ohio State
As expected, Will Howard has emerged as the starting quarterback, and because of his experience and running ability, he will be a big upgrade from that position last year. He’s gotten himself in much better shape and has really turned heads with his speed, clocking over 22 mph on the GPS. Word is that he’s throwing better, too, so expect plenty from the Buckeyes’ loaded receiving corps — Emeka Egbuka, Brandon Innis and budding superstar Jeremiah Smith (No. 6 on this year’s Freaks List). The run game, with its 1-2 punch of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, will be much crisper with Chip Kelly taking over as offensive coordinator.
Defensively, the line is big and rugged. Linebacker Cody Simon is primed to take the next step as the leader of the defense, while converted safety Sonny Styles should be a force alongside him. Keep an eye on young Arvell Reese. He’s making big strides. The secondary has plenty of talent and savvy, but the addition of Alabama transfer safety Caleb Downs will make this defense elite. I’m told he just sees the game differently than most. He will be a true difference-maker.
A trip to Oregon will be Ohio State’s toughest test this fall, but win or lose, the Buckeyes are ready to make a national title run.
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2. Georgia
A 13-1 season with a No. 4 finish in the AP poll doesn’t sound bad, but by Georgia’s standards, it felt like a big letdown. Getting pushed around by Alabama in the SEC title game was a gut punch. This is still a deep and talented squad; in the trenches, no team is better. The Bulldogs are about 10-deep on the offensive line with NFL talent and the same on the defensive line. The linebackers are big and athletic. Mykel Williams, who is slated to play a bunch at outside linebacker in addition to his usual defensive end role, has top-10 talent. Safety Malaki Starks is another star. The rest of the secondary had to be replaced after the NFL Draft.
Carson Beck is currently the top QB prospect for the 2025 draft. He’s very smart and accurate and moves pretty well. Brock Bowers will be missed after taking over games and particularly saving the Bulldogs against Auburn last year, but there are still excellent tight ends on the roster. Outside, Georgia lost Ladd McConkey, a slick slot receiver, as well as Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. Rara Thomas (23 catches, 383 yards in 2023) was booted from the program this summer after his arrest on charges of cruelty to children and battery. Georgia did add big Colbie Young from Miami and London Humphreys, a rangy sophomore from Vanderbilt, to boost the corps and help out Dominic Lovett and Dillon Bell. Florida transfer Trevor Etienne (1,472 yards, 15 TDs in two seasons as a Gator) is being counted on to help spark the running game.
Georgia’s schedule is much harder than it has been in a long time. The Bulldogs open against Clemson and have road trips to Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky. They face Tennessee in Athens and play Florida between the games at Texas and Ole Miss.
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3. Florida State
No coach has been better at working the transfer portal than Mike Norvell. His 2023 team that went 13-0 and got snubbed by the CFP selection committee was a testament to that. And that’s part of why I expect Florida State to come out of the ACC this season despite returning only eight starters. It won’t be easy replacing Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along the defensive line, but the staff is really excited about transfers Marvin Jones Jr., a defensive end from Georgia, and Darrell Jackson, a defensive tackle from Miami listed at 6-5 and 328 pounds who has run 20.6 mph in pads. Jackson, No. 5 on the Freaks List, will be a menacing presence in the middle of the defense along with Joshua Farmer, helping take some pressure away from key returner Patrick Payton on the edge.
Keep an eye on transfer linebacker Cam Riley, a smart, physical player who has impressed with his athleticism. Offensively, there’s a lot of optimism surrounding quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. The former Clemson and Oregon State starter has enough physical tools, especially in terms of his arm strength and size, to be a good weapon for Norvell, who has a great knack for fitting his offense to the skill set of his quarterback. Alabama transfer running back Roydell Williams is a good option running between the tackles; Lawrance Toafili is a shifty all-around back; and Cam Davis is a big, fast freshman who has turned heads in camp. Malik Benson, another Tide transfer, is a big-play threat FSU is hoping can break through in 2024.
The Noles will get an early test this Saturday against Georgia Tech and then face a good Memphis team in their third game before hosting Clemson in early October. Later, they’ll get road games at Miami and Notre Dame and host North Carolina. If DJU shows he can consistently beat people with his arm, these guys are talented enough to win at least 10 games in the regular season and get the ACC title.
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4. Kansas State
In my first projection, I had Utah here. No knock on the Utes, but I’m going all-in on the Wildcats. I’m buying quarterback Avery Johnson as that big of a breakout star. The 6-2, 195-pound sophomore is a dynamic threat who has folks inside the program very excited about his arm talent. He’ll be even more of a problem with the backfield combo of D.J. Giddens, who finished fifth in the Big 12 in rushing yards last year, and Dylan Edwards, Johnson’s old Pop Warner teammate. Inside the program, there is a feeling this is the most talented collection of receivers the Wildcats have had in years. Top O-lineman Cooper Beebe will be missed, but O-line coach Conor Riley is an accomplished developer up front, and he has a lot to work with. North Dakota standout Easton Kilty will help a lot in the trenches.
Ball State DB transfer Jordan Riley has looked like an impact guy on defense, where his physicality is a great fit. The Wildcats have a solid cornerback tandem in Jacob Parrish and Keenan Garber. The 6-3 Donovan McIntosh looks like a future star in the secondary. Of the toughest tests on the schedule — Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State — only the game against the Cyclones is on the road. For quite some time, head coach Chris Klieman and his staff have been considered the conference’s best group when it comes to game-planning and making adjustments. I like their chances even more with such a dangerous offensive backfield.
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5. Oregon
I’ve bumped the Ducks up a spot since June. I expect Dillon Gabriel to make a run at the Heisman this year. He has three dangerous wideouts in Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart and Trae Holden, along with two gifted tight ends in Terrance Ferguson and Kenyon Sadiq, a 6-3, 245-pound sophomore who is one of the fastest players on the team. Watch out for him. Versatile Jordan James (759 yards, 11 touchdowns, 7.1 yards per carry last season) is the next game-breaking Ducks running back. The O-line also is outstanding.
Defensively, the Ducks are pretty special up front. Jordan Burch is as gifted as any D-lineman on the West Coast. If he takes the next step in his development, he can be dominant. On the other side, Matayo Uiagalelei is a potential first-round pick. He’s listed at 6-5 and 275 pounds, but with his change of direction, balance and body control, he moves like he’s 240. Transfer Jamaree Caldwell is a twitchy 340-plus-pound force inside. Linebacker Jeffrey Bassa, a former high school safety and wide receiver long valued for his coverage skills, is now a legitimate 230-pounder who is very physical and a great leader on the field. Corner Jabbar Muhammad headlines a talented secondary.
Folks inside the building are confident in the culture of this team. In the middle of the schedule sits the visit from Ohio State. Beyond that, I think the only other team the Ducks will face that has anywhere near their talent is Michigan. Unless Gabriel gets hurt, expect at least 10 wins in the regular season. The Ducks figure to be a dangerous team this winter if some of their younger talent keeps developing.
6. Texas
The Longhorns drop one spot from my previous projection. Texas is already without two running backs for the season. Christian Clark tore an Achilles just days after star C.J. Baxter blew out his knee. Jaydon Blue (431 yards last year) will be the top back; both he and Quintrevion Wisner are very fast. Baxter’s ability to bang in between the tackles will be missed, and Jerrick Gibson will be counted on to replace that punch. Fortunately, the O-line should be outstanding and the passing attack scary. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is a three-year starter with plenty of arm talent and an extremely deep receiving corps. Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond is almost as fast as Xavier Worthy — and stronger than the Chiefs’ first-round pick. Bond had a remarkable camp, I’m told, as has fellow burner Silas Bolden. Two transfers have been key additions to the defense: UTSA edge rusher Trey Moore and Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba.
I’m also told that backup QB Arch Manning has really blossomed this offseason; the ball is leaving his hand much better as he has continued to physically mature.
7. Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin has elevated the Rebels’ expectations after a strong 2023 and an even stronger NIL commitment to upgrade Ole Miss’ beef in the trenches. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has first-round tools and a lot of playmakers to work with, so expect plenty of fireworks. Ulysses Bentley, the former SMU running back, is a home-run threat every time he touches the ball. Dart made big strides in 2023, taking much better care of the ball. This the most talented team Ole Miss has had since perhaps the Archie Manning days. The Rebels get Georgia and Oklahoma in Oxford, too. They do have to visit LSU and Florida, but Kiffin’s team should be favored in both games.
8. Alabama
Life after Nick Saban will be fascinating. Kalen DeBoer has proven to be a terrific coach, and he inherits a spectacular quarterback in Jalen Milroe, who shined during the second half of last season as the Tide rallied to win the SEC and make the Playoff. DeBoer has gushed about Milroe’s talent and work ethic, and I’ve heard he’s picked up the new offense very well. Fans know he’s going to make a lot of “wow” plays; the next step for him is to consistently make the routine ones.
The Tide have three talented backs in Jam Miller, Justice Haynes and Richard Young. Five-star freshman wideout Ryan Williams has been dazzling in camp; the 6-foot, 170-pounder “is unbelievably fast,” with great hands and ball-tracking skills, according to one Tide assistant. Washington transfer Germie Bernard has also looked superb. He’s not a blazer, but he’s a strong, polished wideout with soft hands who figures to lead the team in receiving.
The secondary had to be rebuilt, but Michigan transfer Keon Sabb is a high-level talent, and the young corners have impressed. The Tide’s schedule includes three rough SEC road trips: at Tennessee, at LSU and at Oklahoma. They host Georgia, Missouri and Auburn. Week 3’s road trip to Wisconsin should be a decent test. Getting to 10-2 in a transition year with a slate that includes five teams ranked in the preseason top 16 would be impressive.
9. Miami
The Hurricanes have had a handful of false starts over the past decades, but this is the most talented roster the program has had since Larry Coker was head coach. The Canes have their best quarterback since that era, too, in transfer Cam Ward. He has a strong arm, is excellent at throwing on the move and can extend plays. Coaches says he has leadership qualities Miami has been lacking for some time, and that Ward’s the first player in the facility every day, arriving around 5:30 each morning. The big challenge for him will be taking care of the ball better, but it helps that this will be the best O-line he’s played behind, so he won’t need to be scrambling as much. Ward can rely on a deep backfield led by former Oregon State star Damien Martinez, who turned heads in his first carry in a live scrimmage when he bounced off a defender and went 70 yards for a touchdown. Houston transfer Sam Brown adds to a promising group of receivers.
Miami’s D-line also has been bolstered in a big way thanks to the portal. Ex-Louisville defensive end Tyler Baron has been impressive, as has Marshall transfer Elijah Alston.
The Canes know hype won’t help them win any games, but this is a group brimming with confidence. They know they’re much different than they were two years ago, when they lost to Clemson and Florida State by a total of 72 points. Last year, they beat Clemson and almost beat FSU in Tallahassee with a backup quarterback. Can they bring that level every week?
10. Notre Dame
Since my early-summer rankings, the Irish lost left tackle Charles Jagusah for the season after he suffered a torn pectoral muscle less than a week into preseason practice. That’s a big blow for a team that was already trying to replace two starting offensive tackles, including the best lineman in the country last season in Joe Alt. Graduate student Tosh Baker has experience, and freshman Anthonie Knapp, a promising if slightly undersized prospect, is also in the mix. It doesn’t help matters that the season opener is at Kyle Field, which can be a raucous environment, and new Texas A&M coach Mike Elko is a defensive whiz who knows new Irish quarterback Riley Leonard, whom he coached at Duke, better than anyone. The hunch here is that Leonard and the offense will settle in quickly. There are fewer concerns about the defense, with multiple studs on the D-line and in the secondary.
Some good news: The backfield, even with Audric Estime in the NFL, is deep. Shifty Jeremiyah Love, who played the bowl game at 188 pounds, is up to 212 and looks primed for a big year. Jadarian Price is right there with him. Young Aneyas Williams is showing flashes of Kyren Williams in terms of his all-around game. Freshman LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, a 240-pound thumper, has continued to wow coaches in camp.
The schedule after the opener is quite manageable, with only visits from Louisville and Florida State looking daunting. Even if the Irish stumble in College Station, 10 wins seems very realistic.
11. Penn State
I toyed with the idea of putting Utah or Missouri here, but I just don’t see the Big Ten only getting two schools into the field in the first year of the 12-team field — while the SEC gets five in. The Nittany Lions still have a lot of freak athletes, especially on defense. Their offense is the biggest question mark; out went offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich and in came Andy Kotelnicki, who did a superb job at Kansas, especially in the run game.
Quarterback Drew Allar can move, but not like the QBs Kotelnicki had to work with in Lawrence. Allar looked pretty good in his first year as a starter (25 touchdowns, two interceptions) but really struggled in big games against Ohio State and Michigan, in which it felt like Penn State didn’t really trust him. Allar does have a pair of top running backs, but this team must find a way to become more explosive in the passing game. Opening at West Virginia is going to be tough. The Nittany Lions also visit USC and Wisconsin, but they should have an edge in talent against almost every team on the schedule aside from Ohio State, which visits State College on Nov. 2. Anything worse than 10-2 would feel disappointing.
12. Memphis
Head coach Ryan Silverfield’s program has a lot of momentum after beating Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl en route to a 10-win season. Memphis has retained its big stars after there was offseason demand for star quarterback Seth Henigan (80 total TDs over the last three years) and freak WR Roc Taylor. The backfield is outstanding again: There’s Mario Anderson (South Carolina’s leading rusher in 2023), speedy Sutton Smith and versatile UMass transfer Greg Desrosiers Jr. The Tigers’ defense also has been strengthened with the arrival of Elijah Herring, Tennessee’s leading tackler last year, and Kobee Minor, an honorable mention All-Big Ten corner from Indiana. I doubt the Tigers will get by Florida State in September, but I think they win out from there.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Sam Hodde, Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire via Getty)
