Oregon fans who were mad that Ohio State was the betting favorite to win the national title despite Oregon’s win against the Buckeyes earlier this season can rejoice. The Ducks are the new favorite to win the national title.
Granted, it took Ohio State’s second loss of the season for the top-ranked Ducks, the only undefeated team left in the country, to become the favorite. Oregon is +350 on BetMGM to win it all. The Buckeyes, which somehow lost 13-10 at home to Michigan, didn’t fall far. They are in the next group of favorites at +450, alongside Georgia and Texas, which will meet in the SEC title game.
Notre Dame, which rebounded from an early season home loss to Northern Illinois to finish the regular season 11-1, is fifth in the odds at +900. The Fighting Irish are somewhat unproven, with one win against a team in the current AP Top 25 (No. 24 Army), but have been blowing teams away lately. Notre Dame is on a 10-game winning streak, and only two of those games were remotely close. The Irish beat Louisville by seven points in late September, and this past week, USC had a drive to tie the game in the last four minutes, but Notre Dame got not one but two pick-sixes from their end zone to put the game away.
The Irish are a tough team to evaluate because of a softer schedule. Their season-opening win at Texas A&M has lost some luster.
Penn State (+1000) and Tennessee (+1800) are next in the odds, but the team after that is the one that will turn some heads: Alabama. The Crimson Tide are +2200 to win the national title despite a 9-3 record.
Alabama could benefit from Miami’s loss at Syracuse on Saturday. The Hurricanes dropped to 10-2 and missed out on the ACC title game. Alabama is No. 11 in both polls, three spots ahead of No. 14 Miami. The polls don’t carry any relevance, but they could be a sign of how the College Football Playoff rankings will look on Tuesday. If Alabama enters this weekend at No. 11, the Crimson Tide are likely in with an SMU win against Clemson in the ACC title game. Even if Clemson, which is 9-3 and well below Alabama in the polls, wins, Alabama could jump SMU and get in that way.
Either way, Alabama will be a talking point ahead of the CFP reveal on Sunday, just like last year. Also like last year, the last spot in the field will be up for debate, as Alabama would have to take it from a team with fewer losses. Last year, 12-1 SEC champ Alabama got the fourth spot in the field ahead of 13-0 ACC champ Florida State, who was without starting quarterback Jordan Travis due to injury.
College football fans across the country may be sick at the thought of another debate about Alabama, but the odds reflect the idea that Alabama is a dangerous team if it makes the 12-team field.
College football national title odds
SMU (+3000) follows Alabama, and then there’s an interesting mix of teams at +5000: Clemson, Indiana and South Carolina. Indiana is viewed as a virtual lock to get into the 12-team field, but those odds show little confidence in the Hoosiers doing much once they get there. Clemson is another 9-3 team that just lost to South Carolina but does have a guaranteed path to the field if the Tigers win the ACC. South Carolina is unlikely to make the field but could join the debate with Alabama.
It’s also likely that the odds for teams like Alabama, South Carolina, Miami (+25000), BYU (+25000) and Ole Miss (+50000) will change drastically after Tuesday’s rankings. It would be odd if anything shifts among these teams between Tuesday and the Sunday reveal because none of them are playing this weekend. We don’t know how many of these teams will get in yet, but we should know the final pecking order on Tuesday, barring a surprising change of heart from the committee.
As for teams playing this weekend, Arizona State (+8000) and Iowa State (+15000) are both longshots to win it all from the Big 12, as are Boise State (+10000) and UNLV (+25000) from the Mountain West.
(Photo of Traeshon Holden: Tom Hauck / Getty Images)
