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Good morning. During last night’s Cowboys win over the Giants, we saw sloppy play and injuries, reminding us that Thursdays should only be for teams coming off bye weeks. At least Micah Parsons’ X-rays were negative after he was carted off late. Here’s what else to know.
Today, we’re looking at:
- Caleb Williams, so far
- Former Bill on Josh Allen
- Week 4 watch guide
- Poll: Faith in Lazard?
Threads of Caleb Williams’ rough start
This year’s first overall pick entered the NFL with especially lofty expectations. Part of it was due to him publicly setting career goals like “immortal” and “legend” before playing a snap.
Meanwhile, the Bears added talented receivers, and many called Chicago the best landing spot for any No. 1 pick in recent history. Accordingly, the hype grew.
You can’t fault Williams for confidence — in fact, I admire it — but the fanfare now seems ridiculously premature.
The stats tell the story of a below-average rookie quarterback. His 59.3 completion percentage and 5.3 yards per attempt each rank 27th, while his 26.8 QBR sits 29th, ahead of only the albatross Deshaun Watson and the benched Bryce Young.
Since 2011, nine quarterbacks have been drafted first overall. The most ultimately disappointing top picks had QBRs under 40 while entering their fourth starts, and only the Urban Meyer-coached Trevor Lawrence had been worse than Williams.
QBR Entering Fourth Start
The good news for Bears fans? Williams is not the problem. At least, not the main problem. From The Athletic’s Derrick Klassen:
“Williams has been playing NFL football on Hard Mode through three weeks. Let’s start with the run game. Chicago’s rushing offense is about as bad as it gets. The Bears are 30th in rushing success rate (25.5 percent) and dead last in yards per carry (2.7) on early downs.
“[As for the offensive line,] the film is littered with clips of linemen, particularly along the interior … being slow off the ball or generally being outmatched by the guy across from them.
“Despite it all, Williams showed the stuff that got him drafted with the No. 1 pick. You could see him throwing away from a defender’s leverage in the quick game and sliding around the pocket with a firm base under him to get to a checkdown.”
There’s hope, especially with OC Shane Waldron admitting his own play-calling needs to improve. In one GIF, here are Williams’ two best plays from Week 3, evidence of his elusiveness in the pocket and arm talent:
When The Athletic’s Bears reporter Kevin Fishbain reviewed Williams’ most recent All-22 tape, he had this to say:
“The key for the Bears to finally get a deep ball was the protection. [When the] Colts didn’t blitz, the Bears were able to double-team, and Williams had a clean pocket.
https://x.com/ChicagoBears/status/1838626051817119845
“It’s too simple to say, ‘As long as Williams has time to throw and players get open, the offense will start clicking.’ But the Bears can take [their] two touchdown drives and see [that when Williams had adequate protection, Chicago scored].”
With their offensive line giving up the third-most sacks in the NFL, don’t expect many clean pockets for Williams. But in those rare instances, we should start to see the promise. This week’s matchup with the Rams defense — which ranks 32nd in yards allowed per pass attempt — is the perfect get-right spot.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Josh Allen, the ‘toddler’ and leader
Damien Harris announced his retirement in March, but he was there in Buffalo last season when the Bills made the switch to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator and Josh Allen took off. Three games into this season, Allen is still ascending.
So when Damien joined co-host Chase Daniel and me on the Friday episode of the “Scoop City” podcast, we asked him: Why is this QB-OC marriage thriving? Here’s what Damien had to say:
“Josh is literally the world’s biggest, strongest, fastest toddler. He’s so playful. He loves to joke. He loves to have a good time. And when you’re a guy that’s that talented and that can win you games at the level of Josh Allen can, relax and be a little bit loose, that’s the way you’ve got to ride.
“Joe Brady’s as cool as the other side of the pillow. And he coached at LSU, so he’s been with guys who had that superstar nature. He’s been a part of those cultures where it’s like, ‘We just show up and we play ball. It don’t matter what you call. Let us call the plays. Because whatever you put on a call sheet, we’re going to make it work.’
“Look at the emergence of Jimbo (James) Cook. Josh Allen is like, if I’m going to be the best version of myself, we’ve got to get this dude going in the pass game and the run game. Joe Brady is getting James Cook involved, and that’s because Josh Allen wants him involved.”
Back to you, Jacob.
Week 4 Watch Guide: Two fantasy sleepers
Before we get to this week’s schedule, I quickly checked in with fantasy guru Jake Ciely after reading his Week 4 rankings.
Two of his Week 3 sleepers, Jauan Jennings and Diontae Johnson, hit in a big way last week. Which two is Jake most confident in this week?
“Assuming the Panthers keep it close, Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard should be a sleeper lock given that, dating back to Week 12 last year, he has at least 9.1 points (with a ceiling of 22.4) in every game that he’s had 14+ touches.
“And Baker Mayfield is primed for a bounce back, especially with Chris Godwin primed to go off against the Eagles — they struggle mightily against slot receivers.”
The remaining Week 4 guide:
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET: Keep an eye on Andy Dalton and Diontae Johnson, who exploded in Week 3 and now face 0-3 Cincinnati’s secondary, which has struggled to stop anyone. Dalton — a former Bengal — and Johnson are both in contract years. This is a perfect chance to boost their bank accounts with another strong performance.
- Bengals at Panthers (FOX)
- Broncos at Jets (CBS)
- Jaguars at Texans (CBS)
- Saints at Falcons (FOX)
- Eagles at Buccaneers (FOX)
- Rams at Bears (FOX)
- Steelers at Colts (CBS)
- Vikings at Packers (CBS)
Sunday at 4:05 p.m./4:25 p.m. ET: Jim Harbaugh’s 2-1 Chargers will be without star safety Derwin James against the 3-0 Chiefs, as James was suspended one game for “repeated violations of playing rules” intended to protect players. Unfortunate timing as their defense (third in EPA) faces Patrick Mahomes, their biggest test yet.
- Chiefs at Chargers (CBS)
- Patriots at 49ers (FOX)
- Commanders at Cardinals (FOX)
- Browns at Raiders (CBS)
Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET: One of those circle the calendar games as Josh Allen’s 3-0 Bills face a 1-2 Baltimore team desperate to reach .500.
Monday at 7:30 and 8:15 p.m. ET: The 3-0 Seahawks and Mike Macdonald’s talented defense (first in defensive EPA per play) get their first true test against a 2-1 Lions team with a young, talented offense. Vic Tafur sees Seattle pulling off the upset.
- Titans at Dolphins (ESPN)
- Seahawks at Lions (ABC)
Need tickets? Go here. For streaming info on Fubo, click here.
Poll Results: Faith in Lazard?
On Tuesday, we asked which early-season receiver breakout you expect to continue: the Jets’ Allen Lazard (61 percent of votes), the Colts’ Alec Pierce (14.3) or the 49ers’ Jauan Jennings (24.8).
You overwhelmingly believe in Lazard because “he’s the clear No. 2 in NY,” says reader Jennings, and “he’s not injury dependent,” says another reader, plus the most appropriate reason: “RODGAS LOVES HIM.”
I couldn’t have put it better myself, David. See you Monday.
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