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Tonight, Week 2 begins. Which means it’s time to check Jake Ciely’s Week 2 fantasy football rankings. Already? Where is the time going??
Below:
- Quick look at Bills-Dolphins
- Packers Week 2 QB?
- QB deals (and rankings)
- Worried about Burrow?
AFC East Battle: What to watch tonight
The Dolphins are favored by 2 1/2 (per BetMGM) against the visiting Bills tonight. Surprising, as Buffalo is 11-2 against Miami since drafting Josh Allen in 2018.
Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa is 1-6 against Buffalo, throwing more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6) in seven career starts against Sean McDermott’s defense.
The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video. Here’s what I’ll be watching for, besides the quarterbacks:
- Buffalo’s run game. Josh Allen is (rightfully) an MVP candidate, but in Week 1, the Bills ran the ball on early downs at their highest rate (per the Cook Index) in their last 82 games with Allen. Buffalo is now 8-2 since promoting Joe Brady to OC (with strict instructions to establish the run). Expect the Bills to control the clock with plenty of James Cook in this one.
- Miami’s explosiveness. Keeping it in check is key for Buffalo, particularly in the screen game. As Joe Buscaglia notes, the Bills struggled to stop screen passes in Week 1. It’s a strength of the Dolphins offense with the lightning-fast Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane, if he suits up. Raheem Mostert is out.
With the Bills (No. 3) and Dolphins (No. 8) high on The Athletic’s Power Rankings, plus their combined offensive strength and defensive weaknesses, I expect a high-scoring affair. My take: Bills 30, Dolphins 27.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Love possible, but Willis likely to start
The Packers are keeping the door open for QB Jordan Love to return on Sunday, but all signs point to QB Malik Willis getting the start against Indianapolis while Love recovers from his MCL sprain.
Green Bay has used draft capital on quarterbacks in three straight drafts, selecting Sean Clifford (2023 fifth round) and Michael Pratt (2024 seventh round, now with the Bucs practice squad after Green Bay released him) and acquiring Willis from the Tennessee Titans (for a 2025 seventh-round pick).
Willis’ first start for the Packers would be against a formidable defense. Indianapolis has experience and will be looking to bounce back from last week’s loss to Houston.
Willis has made only three NFL starts, all as a rookie in 2022. The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman explored how Willis is preparing. Meanwhile, the Colts are expecting Packers coach Matt LaFleur to rely heavily on running back Josh Jacobs (fantasy alert!) on Sunday.
Back to you, Jacob.
QB Watch: Contracts vs. rankings
Early this a.m., Mike Sando published a comparison of his QB Tiers against historic contract values. A fascinating look into why today’s trend of awarding top-tier contracts to mid-tier quarterbacks wasn’t always as common.
It’s a deep dive into the best/worst values of the past 10 years, comparing average pay per year with Tiers rankings. Four notable players:
Best values:
- 2024 Brock Purdy. QB Tiers rank: 12th. Contract rank: 80th. Purdy is on his seventh-round-rookie contract — worth less than $1 million annually — until next season. He represents the greatest value since 2014, and possibly ever.
- 2017 Dak Prescott. QB Tiers rank: 14th. Contract rank: 74th. A close second to Purdy, the now $60-million per year Prescott made just $635,000 at the time in the second year of his fourth-round-rookie deal.
Not so good:
- 2024 Trevor Lawrence. QB Tiers rank: 16th. APY rank: 2nd. That’s the biggest deficit for any Tier 1-3 QB in the 10-year history of QB Tiers. Here’s how Lawrence can still justify the deal.
- Deshaun Watson‘s on-field work alone made me expect to see him among the very worst values. But as of pre-Week 1 rankings, he’d only fallen to Tier 3, according to NFL decision-makers.
Be sure to take a look at the full piece for more.
Ask The Athletic: Joe Burrow concern levels
In case you missed it, Bengals beat reporter Paul Dehner Jr. looked at why Joe Burrow struggled in Week 1. For nearly 50 percent of you, Burrow’s hesitation cost you a survivor pool. It impacted many more through fantasy football. Here’s Paul:
💬 “Burrow finished 21-of-29, but only six passes were thrown more than 7 air yards down the field … [He] continually looked quick to bail out to throw short of the sticks rather than wait for a better option to develop … Just one of the six throws made it out beyond the sticks …
[Notably,] “Burrow stated explicitly after the game that his wrist felt good and he was comfortable in the pocket. What he has yet to say since the injury is that the wrist feels 100 percent.”
When he did throw it, Burrow seemed fine. But this is concerning, especially after he fidgeted with his wrist throughout the game.👇
Around the NFL
With Deshaun Watson facing another lawsuit, Mark Puleo shares a timeline of Watson’s legal troubles since his first sexual misconduct allegation in 2021. Despite the latest accusation, Watson will play Sunday.
Zak Keefer’s feature on C.J. Stroud‘s leadership in Houston is worth your time.
Former Giants offensive lineman Jason Whittle does not want to be known as Patrick Swayze’s son, despite the internet’s insistence. Tim Graham’s story shows why Whittle should be known instead for his actions after 9/11.
Is benching Daniel Jones an overreaction? Giants reporter Dan Duggan says yes, as there’s “no assurances that backup Drew Lock will be a significant upgrade.” HC Brian Daboll agrees, and we’ll see Jones against the struggling Commanders in Week 2.
Tyreek Hill called for a Miami-Dade police officer to be fired after the wide receiver was detained during a traffic stop outside Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.
Yesterday’s most-clicked: NFL Week 1 best and worst coaching decisions.
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