Biden narrows Trump's lead in swing states after debate debacle: Survey

MixCollage 27 Jun 2024 10 01 PM 2840

President Biden, in the wake of a poor debate performance and growing calls for him to step aside, has narrowed Trump’s lead in the key swing states, according to a new survey.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, published Saturday, showed Biden leading Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the incumbent is now within the margin of error, per the survey.

Overall, the poll found that Trump is leading Biden by only 2 percentage points across the seven states — 47 percent to 45 percent. This is the closest Biden has been to overtaking Trump since Bloomberg started tracking the seven states last October. 

The poll also showed Biden narrowed the gap with independent voters, with Trump and Biden being tied at 40 percent. In a previous poll, the former president led the incumbent 44 percent to 36 percent. 

The widest gap between the presumptive party nominees came from the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Biden’s home turf. The survey shows Trump received 51 percent of support from Keystone State voters, compared to Biden’s 44 percent.

This was Bloomberg’s first poll after the June 28 debate, which was hosted by CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The president’s lackluster performance on stage — where he stumbled over his words and had a raspy voice — has raised concerns among Democrats about his ability to beat Trump in November or serve as president for another four years.

“While the first 2024 presidential debate appeared to alarm some Democratic leaders, our surveys of swing-state for Bloomberg News show the matter has done little to change the underlying dynamics of the contest,” Morning Consult US political consultant Eli Yokley wrote alongside the poll release.  

Respondents generally found that Trump performed better in the debate, with more than half saying he won, while only 13 percent said Biden was the victor. Fewer than one in five respondents believed that Biden was the more coherent, mentally fit or dominant participant.

About 20 percent of those polled said the president was mentally fit, while nearly half said the same about Trump. Of those polled, 44 percent said Biden, 81, was too old to be president, while 8 percent said Trump, 78, was too old.

Bloomberg’s poll runs counter to national surveys released in recent days, including the highly anticipated New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed a widened gap post-debate. Trump had a 6-point advantage, up from 3 points last week. A subsequent poll from the Wall Street Journal also showed Biden trailing the former president by 6 points.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index shows Trump in the lead by just over 1 percentage point, bringing in 44.2 percent support compared to Biden’s 43.1 percent.

Since the debate, a growing number of Democrats have called on Biden to stand down as the Democratic nominee and allow for a new person to take his place. 

About 40 percent of those polled said Biden should continue his campaign, while 55 percent said he should withdraw. Roughly 30 percent of likely Democratic voters said he should leave the race, per the survey.

Of potential replacements, Vice President Harris had the highest support, with 42 percent supporting her taking over from Biden. Still, more than half of voters also said they would oppose such a move, the poll found.

A third of survey takers said they supported California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) as a replacement, while 36 percent said they would support a Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.) candidacy. 

About half of those polled said Trump should continue his campaign, while 44 percent said he should stand down. Less than one in ten Republicans believe the former president should withdraw, per the poll.

Biden has said insisted repeatedly since the debate that he is not stepping down. 

This survey was also the first from Bloomberg/Morning Consult since Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in May in his New York hush money case. Roughly 62 percent of voters said the former president is dangerous in light of the conviction — an increase from 59 percent who said the same in February.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,902 registered voters in the seven swing states from July 1-5. The margin of error was 1 percentage point.

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