The most salient national security aspect of Bob Woodward’s new book “War” is his revelation that Russian President Vladimir Putin was likely emboldened to invade Ukraine in February 2022 after President Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
We concur with that assessment.
We have long argued that the “permissive environment” established by Biden and his national security team was taken as a greenlight by the Kremlin — and increasingly on a global basis by Putin’s arsenals of evil, China, Iran and North Korea.
Effectively, the West has been in a global ideological third world war ever since Putin’s ground forces began their ill-fated march towards Kyiv. The post World War II order as we have known it has been destroyed, yet this White House acts as if its equilibrium can be restored if we “defend” democracy into perpetuity.
Unfortunately, we cannot do that. There is no reset button.
Think of everything major that has happened globally since February 24, 2022, as a series of falling dominoes. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, after it begins to falter, begets the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas. Oct. 7. leads to Israel declaring war against Hamas. Iran and North Korea begin supplying Russia’s army in Ukraine with weapons and munitions.
Khamenei launches a ballistic missile attack against Israel in April. Jerusalem kills Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, along with most of his top commanders.
Iran strikes Israel for a second time on Oct. 1, as the Israel Defense Forces widen their ground invasion of Lebanon to enforce U.N. Resolution 1701. Now we await Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet’s response to Tehran.
Meanwhile, North Korea is becoming increasingly involved in Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, including unconfirmed reports that Kim Jong Un is sending 3,000 troops to fight in the Donbas.
Nor has China been quiet. Not only is Beijing increasingly supplying Moscow with dual-use technologies and components for use by Putin’s sputtering war machine, but Xi is also continuing his navy’s bullying of Filipino commercial and naval vessels in the South China Sea.
Most ominously, the People’s Liberation Army keeps practicing for a blockade of Taiwan. The most recent such exercise was earlier this week. Notably, Xi traveled to Fujian province in China, which faces Taiwan across the strait. Xi’s messaging to Taipei was unmistakable just days after Taiwan celebrated its National Day: I am coming for you.
If unchecked, Taiwan and eastern Europe may be the last dominoes to fall in this increasingly kinetic global war Putin and Xi are running against Washington, Brussels and their western allies.
The next domino, however will likely be Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Biden has repeatedly pledged that Khamenei will not obtain nuclear weapons on his watch. Yet Iran is on the cusp of nuclear breakout, if not already there. White House officials have made clear that Biden does not want Israel to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities as part of their forthcoming retaliatory attack.
Yet a failure to strike them would be insane. It would only embolden Iran to accelerate its completion of its nuclear weapons program. It would give Putin the strategic check he needs against Washington to guarantee an uninterrupted supply of Iranian munitions, drones and ballistic missiles via the Caspian Sea.
This White House madness has to stop. Biden and his national security team, as led by Jake Sullivan, is emboldening Putin and his Axis of Evil allies to continue escalating their war against Western liberal democracies.
Biden’s red lines are increasingly turning green. “Don’t” has become “do” for Iran, Israel, Russia and Ukraine. The Biden White House and the U.S. are increasingly irrelevant. The “big stick” President Theodore Roosevelt once wielded has been reduced to a twig.
Democracy is not dying in darkness, but it is at risk of dying in the fields of Ukraine, in the sands of the Middle East and in the waters surrounding Taiwan.
Biden has allowed far too many dominoes to fall, and he still fails to comprehend how they are all connected. Defending the next domino that topples is not going to prevent all of the dominoes from falling.
Biden’s evergreen escalation paralysis has in effect created a deadly purgatory for our country’s national security interests. Our allies — particularly Ukraine and Israel — are paying with their lives.
Equally alarming, Biden’s escalation fears are infusing Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign for the presidency. While campaigning in Las Vegas, Harris, when asked about the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, responded by saying, “We’ve got to de-escalate.”
Like Biden, Harris evidently fails to grasp that every time the Biden-Harris White House utters the word “de-escalate,” solid green lights go off in the heads of Putin, Xi, Khamenei and Kim Jong Un. They invariably respond by taking another step up the escalation ladder, causing more dominos to fall and harming our national security and that of our allies.
The White House must reverse course. Biden can start in Ukraine by authorizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to use U.S. made ATACMS, British made Storm Shadows and French made Scalps to interdict Russian military targets and destroy them wherever they present an imminent threat to Ukrainian forces or civilians.
Ditto recognizing that now is the time to put an end to Khamenei’s nuclear weapons program before it becomes operational. That means getting Israel the 20,000-pound bunker-busting bombs it needs to hit deep inside Natanz — and for Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to stop sending warning letters to Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to placate anti-Israel staffers in Foggy Bottom.
Israel is not our enemy. Putin, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are — and China is preparing and angling to become one as soon as it can get into this fight over Taiwan.
Kneecapping and handcuffing our allies is not a winning strategy to ensure liberal democracy defeats tyranny in the 21st century. It only emboldens our country’s enemies and imperils our national security.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
