Can you believe it’s almost Halloween? Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg and Browns beat writer Zac Jackson are ready because they’ve been eating candy and dressing up as football betting experts all season.
GREENBERG (3-5 last week, 27-21 overall): So it was a rough week. I started 2-0 and then lost five of six. That’s how it goes. How the Chargers’ loss to Arizona went down is why you shouldn’t gamble. Or I guess, why I shouldn’t. Good thing I bet small and take something to get a few hours of sleep.
But we’re back on the wagon.
Who’s excited for Navy-Notre Dame? This would be a really fun game to go to. I should’ve thought ahead and made plans to go to MetLife Stadium before the Bears game in Washington, D.C., on Sunday. I could’ve taken the Acela like I’m Peter King or something.
Anyway, No. 24 Navy is undefeated and 12.5-point underdogs to No. 12 Notre Dame. This is probably where the Midshipmen’s dream season takes a detour. I was all set to take Navy but then I saw that the public and The Athletic staffers are all on board, so I decided to jump ship and go with Notre Dame -12.5. I don’t like myself.
I really wish I got to an Indiana game before Kurtis Rourke cut his hand. (It wasn’t on my list last week, but I did indeed bet Indiana over Nebraska. Wish I didn’t bet small!) It’s awful timing for Rourke to be out as ESPN’s “College Gameday” is coming to Bloomington this weekend. The Hoosiers can still win against Washington without Rourke, but I’m taking under 53.5.
I’ve got two more for you. Your Toledo Rockets -2.5 over also your Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green hasn’t covered since its first three games of the season, a win over Fordham and close losses to Penn State and Texas A&M. But the Falcons have covered their last two against Toledo, albeit as big underdogs. The Rockets won a tight one 13-7 with a backup QB at Northern Illinois last week. They win another close one at home.
Sure, your college rivalry is intense, but Toledo has a rocket pointed at Bowling Green. pic.twitter.com/t3JGNSnjUC
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) October 23, 2024
And we’ll close with Miami (of Florida not Ohio) -21 over woebegone Florida State. Is Cam Ward playing? Why is this spread so low?
JACKSON (4-4, 24-24): Did you know Indiana hasn’t allowed a first-quarter point all season? I hate that Rourke is out, but let’s ride that trend: Indiana-Washington first quarter under 10.5.
I’m against you in the Battle of I-75. I just think Bowling Green has been the better team in this series the last few years and has its best group. It should be a first to 21 or so type of affair, and I want the Falcons +2.5.
Speaking of Rourke, and of the MAC, let’s go home: Ohio -6 vs. Buffalo. I think those magical 2 1/2 quarters Buffalo put together against Toledo were the peak for this Buffalo team. Bobcats get a bounceback win.
I’ll also take Auburn +2.5 at Kentucky and Cincinnati-Colorado over 57. It might go over 77.
GREENBERG: Baltimore-Cleveland is one of six games with point spreads of a touchdown or more. The Ravens should win by 20, but who can bet against the Jameis Winston magic?
What kind of topsy-turvy world are we living in when Denver is a 10-point favorite over another NFL team (well, Carolina)? I mean, they have won three of their four wins have come in blowouts, but still. The Broncos have only been favored twice this season. The Chiefs -10 at the Raiders is tempting, regardless of whether Gardner Minshew or newly acquired Desmond Ridder starts at QB. I can’t see myself taking the Jets -7 at New England, but that feels like a New York win.
I’m going to pass on the big spreads. I’ll take one home favorite, the Steelers -6 against the Giants on Monday Night Football, and three road favorites: the Vikings -3 at the Rams on Thursday Night Football, the Packers -4 at the Jaguars and the Bears -2.5 at the Commanders. Could these all be trap games? Absolutely. Does anyone ever win money betting favorites in the NFL? Unlikely. But three of the four favorites are clearly better and I like a hyped-up Bears team after their bye week against Marcus Mariota and the Commanders.
JACKSON: I was right about Georgia last week. I’m generally right. Sometimes I just get cheated by the officials or the weather or occasionally, I just buckle under the pressure of what awful things the commenters might say about me if I continue to go 1-3 in NFL picks each week.
After watching seven games of the Browns’ offense and then two quarters of Sam Houston State and FIU Tuesday night, I need a therapist more than I need anything else. But onward we trudge, because there are winners to be found.
The Ravens are on a short week after a wild win — and 90 snaps for their defense. The Browns are going with Jameis Winston. I’m not sure the Browns can win, but getting more than a touchdown? Sign me up for Cleveland +9.
I’ll go with Cowboys +4 Sunday night at San Francisco. Both teams are kind of a mess in their own ways. I’ll take more than a field goal with a Dallas team that’s coming off a bye. And we’ll close with Seattle +3 with Buffalo coming across the country.
It’s Massillon-McKinley week in my neck of the woods. Part of the mythology is that, for a long time, a lot of people actually believed it was the only high school game that Las Vegas books would put on their boards. That would be illegal, of course, but so are the parlay sheets that have been listing this game since I was a kid.
Did you ever read the Sports Illustrated story on Massillon-McKinley 30 years ago centered around the 100th game?
GREENBERG: I must have, but I don’t remember it. I miss the days of Leigh Montville writing about high school football. At that point in 1994, I was probably still mourning Big Red’s loss to West Branch in the state semifinals. I refuse to go watch NFL games at Fawcett Stadium (sorry Tom Benson) in Canton because of those memories. (Also, I hate preseason football.)
But I will definitely take McKinley +33!
JACKSON: I think 33 is a bit much. I’ll give you McKinley +29 for the first round of drinks at Ohio-Kent State on Nov. 6. Reminder, Kent State is now the only FBS team that doesn’t have a win.
GREENBERG: Respect to Kennesaw Mountain Landis State University.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Riley Leonard: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
