Our Browns writer Zac Jackson took a break from chronicling that familiar brand of misery to do the picks this week with Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg, who is trying to put together a bankroll to buy the White Sox.
GREENBERG (5-2 last week, 24-16 overall): I’m a little surprised I went 3-0 in the NFL, considering I passed up the layup bets on “my” teams, the Bears and Steelers. I don’t know if I overestimated the Jaguars and Raiders or underestimated Chicago and Pittsburgh, but I’m guessing it was a little bit of both.
But wins are wins. (I’m 11-3 overall the last two weeks, no big deal.) I did not think the Bills were going to come through late Monday night, that’s for sure. But somehow, they survived.
Let’s flip our usual script and talk about the NFL first because I can’t fathom how excited Cleveland is for the ALCS; I mean the Battle for Ohio. Did they cancel school? Is Deshaun Watson the most unpopular athlete in Cleveland history? Has he passed José Mesa yet?
What perfect timing for Joe Burrow to come to town and try to actually win a game there. I hit on the Bengals last week in the Meadowlands, and while I know it’s on his defense to come through, if Burrow can’t win in Cleveland this time, he should just hang up his cleats and retire to Athens to bartend at Tony’s. Maybe I’m biased against the Browns because I read you and Jason Lloyd, but give me the Bengals -5.5.
JACKSON (4-3, 20-20): Burrow has never won in Cleveland. It feels like I’ve never won an NFL pick, at least not since Burrow was playing for Athens High.
Under 41.5 in Browns-Bengals changes that. The Browns will show up and play defense. It will be a slog. I’ll ride this wave of Browns unders until it stops. As for your question about Watson specifically, I’ll just say this whole thing is exactly the zero amount of fun that it appears to be. I’m interested to see the reaction of the home crowd Sunday.
That’s my only Athens, Ohio, pick of the week. Though I’m tempted to take our shared alma mater, Ohio University, in a major revenge spot +4 at Miami Ohio, that one just missed making my final list.
I stink at the NFL, as noted above, but I’ll take Seattle +3 this week in what should be a high-scoring one, and I’ll take the Niners -1.5, too. The Chiefs probably win the Super Bowl again, but for right now they’re overdue for a loss.
GREENBERG: I don’t love the board this week, and nothing is really jumping out at me. Road favorites were 9-0 last week, and the Bengals are one of six this week. Of the remaining five, the only other one I like enough to take is the Chargers -2.5 at Arizona on Monday Night Football. I don’t like betting against the Steelers, but if I did, I’d take Aaron Rodgers and his best buddy Davante Adams -2 at QB-confused Pittsburgh as well.
Otherwise, I’ll take two essential pick-’em home teams: the Niners -1.5 against the Chiefs with you and the Vikings -1.5 over Dan Campbell’s leg-chewing Lions in an NFC North slobber-knocker. I originally had the Lions but flipped it. I want to see how Detroit plays without Aidan Hutchinson. Should be a fun game.
So let’s get to college. Who do you like? I can read your mind: You’re taking the under in Bowling Green-Kent State, aren’t you?
JACKSON: Of course I am. I’m expecting Bowling Green to be playing its backup (actually third) quarterback. It’s the week before BG-Toledo, a backyard rivalry that’s like Auburn-Alabama with more parking lot violence. Give me under 55.5 all day.
UCF is going backward despite having some major offensive talent. The UCF defense is No. 96 in EPA against the pass and that’s bad news against an Iowa State team that’s top 20 in EPA per pass and might be rolling to 11 or 12 wins. Iowa State -13 for me.
Let’s go with Kentucky-Florida under 43. This Kentucky defense is real. The rest, well, it’s not good. Florida is better than most expected but lost quarterback Graham Mertz. I just think this is 17-16 either way.
Friday night, autoplay on Purdue +27.5 with Oregon off the huge win over Ohio State and flying across the country on a short week. Hold your nose and do it.
GREENBERG: I can’t, in good conscience, bet on Purdue, but I see the logic. I’m curious how many Oregon fans make the trek to West Lafayette, Ind. I was at dinner with two of the Ducks faithful Wednesday night, but I believe the rest of their party died of dysentery. Should be a fun visit for Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, though. I believe he was in Drew Brees’ recruiting class. Or was it Bob Griese’s?
I’ll also take that BG-Kent under 55.5, and I’m continuing my run with Army -15.5 over East Carolina at home. The Pirates are coming off a 55-24 loss to Charlotte. (The 49ers are 17-point ‘dogs to Navy this week if you’re really interested in investing in our military.)
We know the Commodores are legit after following their Alabama upset with a win against Kentucky, but can they beat a MAC team by four touchdowns? That’s the play this week: Vanderbilt -25.5 over Ball State.
And lastly, we should pick a game people are actually going to watch. This is as square as it gets, but give me Georgia-Texas over 55.5. Like a lot of people, I got burned on that total last week in Oklahoma-Texas, so I think America deserves the points here.
JACKSON: I want Georgia moneyline +165. Who has Texas played?
(Clearly, I’m not afraid of being wrong)
I’m also leaning toward Northern Illinois -3 at home over Toledo. I’m not sure what happened in that Buffalo game a few weeks back, but NIU might just be the best team in the MAC by a significant amount.
GREENBERG: I won’t tell Matt Eberflus or Nick Saban you’re betting against their Rockets.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Quinn Ewers: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
