HOUSTON — The conversation came at the conclusion of this calamitous start, a first-year manager maintaining direct communication with one of his ballclub’s most deified figures. Intrigue had long left Minute Maid Park when Joe Espada found Justin Verlander inside the first-base dugout.
“I mean, f—, the damage has been done, whatever,” Verlander said. “I’m good.”
Verlander had secured nine outs and staked his team to an eight-run deficit. Not since May 16, 2013, had Verlander yielded eight earned runs in three or fewer innings. Few starts of his fabulous career had been worse than this one, but Verlander vowed he could continue it.
“Whatever you need,” Verlander told his manager, a meaningful gesture meant to spare the Houston Astros’ bullpen. Espada said the two men discussed “some things he felt, some things he saw” before reaching a conclusion.
“You know what, JV, we feel good where we’re at right now. We’re going to hand the ball to someone else,” Espada said he told him.
There is thought this is still akin to a spring training buildup and solace taken in the shape of his slider, but Sunday offered a sobering snapshot of Verlander’s state. His search for anything resembling consistency reached its nadir beneath a national audience. Pulling him after three innings of the Astros’ 12-6 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks involved little torment.
Justin Verlander is 3-6 with a 5.30 ERA this season. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
Looming decisions may be far more distressing. Nineteen games remain in the regular season and time is fading for Verlander to find himself. If he doesn’t, the discussions won’t seem near as simple as what transpired Sunday.
“I would not bet against someone with that pedigree and how good this guy has been for a very long time,” Espada said. “I just know that he’s going to go back and work and try to figure some stuff out. This guy has been very good for a very long time.”
Because of it, Verlander has earned the benefit of every doubt and the extension of any runway. The Astros will give it to him, but the calendar and pursuit of a championship wait for no one, not even those bound for Cooperstown.
Nothing Verlander did Sunday night pacified the paranoia this fan base harbors of him pitching in a playoff game — a sentence and sentiment that, two months ago, seemed inconceivable.
The eight earned runs Verlander allowed to the Diamondbacks were his most in 127 regular-season starts as an Astro. He struck out zero batters for the fifth time in a 523-start career that spans 19 seasons.
Verlander has an 8.78 ERA across his past six starts. The first two preceded his placement on the injured list with what the Astros described as “neck discomfort.” Verlander has never specified the injury any further, instead directing reporters to a “medical staff” that the team does not make available for interviews.
“I felt good physically,” Verlander said, “but obviously the results were atrocious.”
Verlander has not thrown a pitch in the sixth inning since May 29. His season ERA swelled to 5.30 after Sunday’s nightmare, after which Verlander seemed at a loss to explain his struggles. The mechanics he vowed to fix following his last start felt better, he said. The feel for his pitches he didn’t have six days prior in Cincinnati returned.
“Seemed like they had a really good game plan and saw some pitches pretty well,” Verlander said before a brief pause, “in some surprising spots.
“Tip your cap.”
Verlander never specified what he meant, whether he was upset at his pitch sequencing or if the Diamondbacks had detected something in his mechanics. Even if they did, some of the same problems that have plagued Verlander since his return from the injured list repeated themselves.
Verlander’s command has cratered, creating deep counts, inefficient innings and forcing him to throw his worst-performing pitch. In four starts since being activated, Verlander has thrown 61 percent of his pitches for strikes. Verlander boasted a 68 percent strike rate last season and, before his stint on the injured list, threw them at a 66 percent clip this season.
On Sunday, Verlander received six called strikes on the 34 secondary pitches he threw. Failing to land them in the strike zone or generate chase forced Verlander to rely on a four-seam fastball he isn’t commanding with any consistency.
Seven of Arizona’s eight hits arrived against a four-seam fastball, including two home runs by outfielder Pavin Smith. Verlander averaged 94.1 mph on the 41 four-seamers he threw but appeared to leave far too many in the middle of the plate.
“It’s more the vertical shape that we’re looking for,” Espada said. “There was some there, but that part of it is not quite there yet and that’s how we know JV is on — when you see the inches of vertical (movement) on his fastball. He’s working through it, man, he’s working through it.”
Teams are 20-for-46 against Verlander’s four-seam fastball across his past four starts. Last year, Verlander allowed a .235 batting average on the pitch. He had not permitted a higher one since 2014, the last season he finished with an ERA north of 3.50.
Comparing that Verlander to this one is impossible, but the numbers illustrate how imperative it is for him to harness a better feel for his secondary pitches. On Saturday, pitching coach Josh Miller marveled that “the slider looks like it’s back to where it was a handful of years ago.” A day later, Arizona stacked six left-handers and two switch hitters in its lineup to neutralize it.
The Diamondbacks took 32 swings against Verlander and whiffed four times. None of them were against his three secondary pitches. Only four lineups in the sport chase less than Arizona, but Verlander’s inability to throw any secondary pitches in the strike zone staggered him.
“I found myself behind a lot because I wasn’t able to land them, and they did some damage on some fastballs because of that,” Verlander said. “I thought the fastball was better today overall. The off-speed was a bit inconsistent location-wise, which got me in a little bit of trouble.”
Much of Verlander’s other misfortune will be analyzed across the next seven days. Houston’s rotation is expanding to six for a looming stretch of 16 straight games. Presuming Verlander stays on turn, he will next start Sunday in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels.
How the Astros configure their rotation after that stretch could be contingent on playoff positioning. Have they clinched the American League West? Is there a realistic chance of nabbing the first or second seed in the American League and receiving a bye through the Wild Card series?
If the answer to either scenario is no, throwing the team’s most trusted starters seems mandatory. This version of Verlander can’t be considered one of them, meaning there may be just two more starts for him to shift that thinking.
“We have to go back to the drawing board and get him going,” Espada said. “We need him.”
Continued dominance from Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Yusei Kikuchi have proved Houston can survive without Verlander. Youngsters Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti have outperformed him, even if both are entering uncharted territory with their workloads. Stowing them in an October bullpen should suit them well.
Verlander, though, has made 523 regular-season appearances. Not once has he come out of the bullpen. He did appear in relief during Game 4 of the 2017 American League Division Series, but only due to Houston’s distrust in many of its high-leverage bullpen options.
No such situation exists this season. If Verlander is not a traditional starter and maintains this level of performance, finding a place for him on this postseason pitching staff is almost impossible.
“If we get there and when we get there, we can have those discussions,” Miller said Saturday. “His resume speaks for itself. If he pitches the way he can pitch, we’ll know where we’ll be at that point.”
(Photo of Justin Verlander, center, surrounded by teammates in the third inning Sunday: Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
