HOUSTON — Hello, Astros fans. Welcome to an idle October. Hope you’ve found something to pass the time.
Other than not renewing the contract of third-base coach Gary Pettis and announcing Mauricio Dubón’s thumb surgery, the club has maintained relative silence during the postseason.
General manager Dana Brown maintained “nothing is off the table” this winter. Alex Bregman’s future will dominate the discourse, but broader questions about the franchise’s direction are apparent. A payroll bloated with dead money, an aging roster, a diminished farm system and several holes to fill might force some difficult decisions.
Whether Brown and his front office can navigate them will be fascinating. Whether owner Jim Crane is willing to carry another record payroll — and cross the luxury tax for a second consecutive year — is even more so.
These are the same leaders who last winter threw $95 million at one reliever after another had shoulder surgery. Expecting something similar this offseason feels unwise.
“We may have to get a little bit creative,” Brown acknowledged earlier this month.
How creative? Many of you have ideas.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
If the Astros don’t make a serious run at signing Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez to a long-term deal, does it make sense to trade them even though it hurts the 2025 team? Or will they be content with only recouping an MLB Draft pick after they leave in free agency? — Aaron M.
History suggests they’ll be content with gaining a draft pick, Aaron, but the franchise is approaching a crossroads that must prompt serious consideration about trading one or both players.
If precedent is a guide, the Astros aren’t going to give the sort of contracts needed to keep even one of Tucker or Valdez. Their farm system remains in desperate need of a boost, too, but Crane has long claimed the team’s championship window will never close while he’s in charge.
Replenishing the farm system while maintaining the Astros’ status as a contender should be one of Brown’s foremost goals this winter. No easier path exists than exploring trades for one of these two impending free agents, even if it goes against the club’s previous patterns. Remember, nothing is off the table.
If Tucker’s 21.2 WAR since 2021 didn’t already demonstrate it, Houston’s nonexistent outfield production during his absence last season accentuated how vital he is to everything this team wants to accomplish. The Astros already need another outfielder with Tucker on the roster. Trading him away — along with the potential of losing Bregman — could cripple them beyond repair.
The surplus of starting pitching Houston accrued this season might make it easier to part with Valdez, whom MLB Trade Rumors projects will earn $17.8 million during his final year of arbitration eligibility.
What are the chances of the Astros trading Valdez, and do any teams strike you as reasonable possibilities as trade partners? — Alan Z.
Framber Valdez finished his age-30 season with a 2.91 ERA. (Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
Any National League team with hopes of contending should be clamoring for Valdez, Alan. It stands to reason Houston wouldn’t trade Valdez to an American League foe, especially if it wants to contend in 2025, but wilder things have happened.
If Valdez is made available, one parallel situation could be worth analyzing: the Baltimore Orioles’ acquisition of Corbin Burnes last winter.
Burnes, like Valdez, had one more year of club control remaining and made $15.6 million during his final trip through the arbitration process. Both sport career ERAs of 3.30 or lower and are two of just 11 pitchers to throw 710 innings since 2021.
In return for Burnes, the Milwaukee Brewers received infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall and the 34th pick in the 2024 draft. Ortiz was a consensus top-100 prospect, and Hall had been one before an uneven beginning to his major-league career.
This is not to suggest the Astros would receive an identical package in a hypothetical trade for Valdez, but it offers at least a baseline of what another club got for a similar pitcher. It should also be noted that teams expressed an interest in Valdez last offseason, when he held a far higher trade value than he will this winter.
And, so as not to dodge the question, it’s difficult to pinpoint Houston’s chances of trading Valdez. The club could’ve done it with other players it had no prayer of re-signing — George Springer, Carlos Correa and Gerrit Cole, to name a few — but never did. The franchise is in a different position now than ever before.
What will the starting pitching rotation look like next year? With Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti, that’s a solid core four. Bringing back Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia, J.P. France and eventually Cristian Javier and José Urquidy crowds the position with a lot of quality. Who stays and who goes? — David B.
It does seem crowded, right, David? Add in the possibility of another external addition — be it a reunion with Yusei Kikuchi or another veteran, stabilizing starter — and it makes even more sense to explore a trade from this area of depth.
One caveat in your question is presuming Javier, Urquidy or France will be able to contribute next season.
All three underwent major surgeries — Javier and Urquidy on their elbows, and France on his shoulder — and nothing about this team’s return-to-play procedure has inspired much hope they will pitch meaningful innings next year.
The lack of any substantive updates on McCullers’ condition makes it impossible to predict his timeline and could make it imperative to explore an external addition.
Still, Garcia seems primed to pitch a full season alongside Valdez, Brown, Arrighetti and Blanco. Ryan Gusto remains on the 40-man roster and would’ve started the final regular-season game if not for inclement weather.
Fellow prospects A.J. Blubaugh, Colton Gordon and Miguel Ullola — along with, perhaps, an unheralded player who takes a leap next season — might afford enough depth to compensate if Valdez is traded.
Why doesn’t the Astros’ homegrown talent ever seem interested in a hometown discount? Who wouldn’t want to play with the same guys in the playoffs every year for a little (or even a lot) less money? — Mark H.
FanGraphs has a metric called “dollars,” Mark. It converts WAR into a dollar scale based on what a player could earn in free agency. It measured Yordan Alvarez worth $50.8 million in 2022, $34.4 million in 2023 and $42.1 million in 2024.
Alvarez made the league minimum in 2022, but that June he signed an extension that paid him $7 million in 2023 and $10 million in 2024. The deal bought out three of his free-agent seasons, too. As a result, Alvarez will make $26 million in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
Since 2022, only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have a higher OPS than Alvarez. Ohtani is 30 and making $700 million. Judge is 32 and making $360 million, including $40 million this season, his first after free agency.
Yordan Alvarez’s contract has been a relative bargain compared to similar upper-echelon hitters. (Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
Alvarez will make $115 million through his age-31 season. Signing that extension forfeited the potential of a more lucrative payday but guaranteed generational wealth. At the time, only Wander Franco, Fernando Tatis Jr., Buster Posey and Mike Trout had signed bigger deals before reaching salary arbitration.
Bregman did something similar in 2019 when he signed a six-year, $100 million extension before reaching arbitration. He was worth $205.9 million across the life of the deal, according to FanGraphs’ dollar metric.
That metric isn’t absolute, and in Alvarez’s and Bregman’s cases, the arbitration process likely would’ve still limited their earnings. The fact remains: Given their production, both men played on extremely team-friendly deals.
Forrest Whitley had an outstanding season for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys. Will he be a major part of the 2025 bullpen? — Jeff T.
He should be given every opportunity, Jeff. If he doesn’t seize it, though, his future is murky.
Whitley is out of minor-league options, meaning if he doesn’t make the club out of spring training, Houston must expose him to waivers. Given his performance at Triple A this season, the quality of his stuff and his pedigree as a 2016 first-round pick, it’s difficult to see him passing through unclaimed.
Losing Héctor Neris, Caleb Ferguson and Kendall Graveman to free agency should give Whitley the clearest runway he’s ever had to become a bona fide contributor to the major-league team.
Which rookie will have the best season for the Astros next year? — Chad S.
Zach Dezenzo is the easy answer here, Chad. He’s a candidate to fill both vacant corner infield spots, perhaps whichever one the Astros don’t address with an external addition.
Are Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick trade capital? — George H.
They could be, George, but neither did much to enhance their value this season. Last winter, Dana Brown all but acknowledged the Astros shopped Meyers and pulled him off the market in hopes he’d seize the center-field job.
Meyers became a Gold Glove finalist but posted just a .646 OPS and .286 on-base percentage in 513 plate appearances. McCormick followed up a breakout season with a .576 OPS in an injury-plagued campaign that saw him get optioned to the minors.
McCormick still has a career 107 OPS+, and before this season, he had a .786 OPS in 1,184 major-league plate appearances. Whether this year was a blip or a sign of decline is the question Brown must ask himself.
Both men have minor-league options remaining, which helps their trade value. That top prospect Jacob Melton harnessed consistency late in the Triple-A season should’ve put Meyers and McCormick on the clock. Non-tendering one — or both — could be a more logical outcome.
(Top photo of Kyle Tucker: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
