ORLANDO, Fla. — When Saturday had finished and Bay Hill had been declared the winner on points, one man was left smiling as he walked off the 18th green.
Collin Morikawa made a 12-footer for birdie, putting himself at 10 under par after the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and in the lead at the fourth signature event of the PGA Tour season. He is not without challengers — Russell Henley is one stroke behind, followed by Corey Conners and Jason Day — but Morikawa can surely feel it, the chance to win.
It’s been a long time. Too long, in the eyes of many. But explainable by Morikawa, who for all his week-to-week consistency also admitted after Saturday’s 67 that he hasn’t played well here in the past because he has often shown up with his game in a bad place. And just overall, there have been too many weeks since his last win — the 2023 Zozo Championship — when he was just trying to find a feel and to ride it. That’s no way to win.
Now? Morikawa, long considered one of the game’s best iron players, is no longer living on reputation.
“We’re looking all the way back to 2021,” Morikawa said when asked how far back he’d have to go to match the feeling he has right now.
Morikawa won the 2021 Open Championship, his second major win in two years. He was a 24-year-old wunderkind back then, all of it right there in front of him. He’s now 28, still firmly in his prime, yet the possibilities feel muted. He’s a Ryder Cup stalwart but is seen as more of a compiler on tour. There’s no denying the talent of someone with three runner-ups, eight top 10s and zero missed cuts in the past year. The lack of trophies still makes it feel incomplete.
Which is why Sunday is so important for Morikawa. It’s why it’s so important for the PGA Tour — he’s the No. 5 player in the world, and that guy needs to win. The four men ahead of him in the world rankings are out of contention, and though the three behind him on the leaderboard would be great stories in their own right, none would fill out the red cardigan that goes to the winner in the same way.
Collin Morikawa, SOLO LEADER through 54 holes. 😤
📺 NBC & Peacock | @APInv pic.twitter.com/ppujZo4me0
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 8, 2025
Morikawa has made it this far by playing the game the course has required of him — he’s sixth in the field in strokes gained off the tee, which makes it that much easier to be second approaching the greens. “Hit a lot of greens, hit a lot of fairways, 2-putt a lot. Yeah, it’s very simple, honestly. It’s just very hard to do,” Morikawa said.
The setup at Bay Hill this week has been nothing short of astounding, a model for how the PGA Tour’s signature events should operate. If we’re going to limit the field to nearly half that of a normal player list and hand out gobs of money to those in attendance (four years ago, the Arnold Palmer Invitational’s purse was $9.3 million; this week it’s $20 million), the least that can be done is provide a significant challenge.
That has happened, with cool weather and stiff winds making par a great score Thursday. Even as the temperature warmed and the winds let up coming into the weekend, the course is such that at least one player called the greens “bordering on unplayable.” Take that as an endorsement for the setup. The rough is so thick and so penal that you must hit fairways, then nail your approach shot. Unlike most other weeks on tour, you cannot just hack it out of the rough, find the right part of the green and have a birdie putt.
And those greens. Oh my, those greens.
“Glassy,” Day said.
Said Henley: “You got to play a lot of break and not hit it very hard on a lot of putts, and that makes it hard to make the putt.”
Collin Morikawa was one of the few players Saturday who made their putts. (Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)
That’s what we saw again and again Saturday, mishits and misreads ejecting one player after another — 13 players were within three shots of the lead as the final group played No. 3, and four were as the sun set over Orlando. Justin Thomas flirted with the lead, only to find water on No. 6, bogey it and never be heard from again. Day was in a four-way tie for the lead after back-to-back birdies, then bogeyed the last three holes on the back nine, needing a back-nine 32 to give himself a chance Sunday. Wyndham Clark was the last man on the range Saturday afternoon, using all the clubs in his bag as he appeared to be in search of something; he never found it, shooting a front-nine 40 to go from solo second to 13th place. Shane Lowry had the lead, lost it, got it back and then lost it again.
It was the kind of day where if you were faking it, you probably got found out. But right now, that’s not Morikawa.
“I would say the guys that are winning on a constant basis, they’re playing free, and that’s how I’m going to go out tomorrow,” Morikawa said.
(Top photo: Richard Heathcote / Getty Images)
