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AFC South: Three-headed beast?
The Colts haven’t won the division since Deflategate. The Texans, Titans and Jaguars haven’t faired much better, failing to advance past the divisional round since Blake Bortles and the Jags blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead to Tom Brady in 2018.
Each team is eyeing a division title in 2024, but let’s start with the favorite.
Texans in 2024
Biggest question: Can they build off a breakthrough season? Using the window of C.J. Stroud’s rookie contract ($8.2 million cap hit in 2024) to gear up for a title run, they made headlines this offseason with big acquisitions in DE Danielle Hunter, RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs. If health is on their side (they lost nearly 160 games to injury in 2023, most in the league), there’s no reason why HC DeMeco Ryans and Stroud can’t improve, even in a stacked AFC.
Position to watch: Offensive line. Specifically, their health. Last season’s second-highest paid line set a record with 82.1 adjusted games lost, per FTNFantasy, with 14 different linemen seeing snaps. Star left tackle Laremy Tunsil also dealt with an omnipresent knee injury. This excuses their slighty-below average finish, with PFF ranking them 19th in pass blocking and 20th in run blocking. There’s legit upside here.
Fantasy sleeper: RB Jawhar Jordan. Mixon and backup RB Dameon Pierce share something in common: both struggled in zone concept runs from 2022 to 2023. Then there’s Jordan, a 2024 sixth-round pick who thrived in a zone-based run scheme at Louisville (6.23 yards per carry). His burst and long speed stands in stark contrast with Mixon and Pierce, making Jordan a high-upside stash and a strong fit in Houston.
Better than in 2023? Yes. Despite BetMGM listing their win total lower than last season (at 9.5), they gave the Texans the eighth-best odds to win the Super Bowl. But with four talented AFC teams in their way — Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals and Bills — give it another year before Stroud and company make it out of the Divisional Round.
Jaguars in 2024
Biggest question: Can they protect Trevor Lawrence? The Jaguars will need to do better than 29th in pass-block win rate, which evaluates the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. While that may be misleading — Lawrence’s average time to pass was 2.4 seconds in 2023, similar to his 2022 Pro Bowl season (2.44) — no offensive lineman had a PFF overall grade above 70.0, and PFF ranked the unit 27th in the league (injuries and suspensions contributed). Adding former Pro Bowl C Mitch Morse from Buffalo should pay dividends.
Position to watch: Receiver. Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones and Jamal Agnew, three players who turn 30 soon, are gone. Their replacements are the much younger first-round pick Brian Thomas (21) Gabriel Davis (25) and return specialist Devin Duvernay (27). This should help Jacksonville stretch the field, as Davis has the second-most yards per reception (16.7) since entering the league and the rookie Thomas posted 17.3 yards per reception at LSU in 2023. The biggest beneficiary should be …
Fantasy sleeper: WR Christian Kirk. Is he a “sleeper”? No, but can he ever be drafted high enough for me? Again, no. Kirk returns as Jacksonville’s slot receiver after finishing 12th among all wide receivers in first downs per route run per Fantasy Points Data, one of the best metrics in predicting success among WRs. With legitimate deep threats to open the middle, Kirk could again finish as the eleventh-best receiver.
Better than in 2023? Slightly. The Jaguars added six free agents who are expected to start, nine draft picks and a new defensive coordinator (former Falcons DC Ryan “Crazy Eyes” Nielsen). This new-ish team desperately needs Lawrence to take the next step.
Colts in 2024
Biggest question: Can Anthony Richardon stay healthy? After the 21-year-old Richardson lasted just four games in 2023, they signed last season’s Comeback Player of the Year, 39-year-old Browns legend Joe Flacco, as an insurance policy. They’ll hope he remains just that, but I’m skeptical given Richardson’s lengthy injury history. Consider: in the last five seasons, Richardson has suffered at least eight injuries.
Position to watch: Safety. After strong safety Julian Blackmon, who had a career year in 2023, it’s questionable with free safeties Rodney Thomas II (2022 seventh-round pick who was benched at the end of last season) and Nick Cross (2022 third-round pick with four career starts). As James Boyd wrote, “Proven veterans Quandre Diggs and Justin Simmons are still available in free agency and it would behoove the Colts to snap one of them up before it’s too late.”
Fantasy sleeper: WR Josh Downs, when healthy. One of Richardson’s favorite targets during spring practices, Downs is looking to build off a rookie franchise-record 68 catches. He averaged a respectable 63.3 yards and 5.3 catches during his first eight games before injuring his knee, which led to a notable drop in every receiving category. I expect second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell to take snaps from Alec Pierce, not Downs.
Better than in 2023? Yes, thanks to continuity. It’s possible that year two of the Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson pairing yields the Colts first playoff appearance since 2020. The easiest schedule in the division helps, but Richardson must learn to slide.
Titans in 2024
Biggest question: Is Will Levis good enough? After one of the NFL’s busiest offseasons, the Titans’ sophomore quarterback has a new HC (Brian Callahan), OC (Nick Holz) and QB coach (Bo Hardigree), to go along with new weapons Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard and Tyler Boyd. Tennessee is counting on Levis to improve on his 37th-ranked passer rating, 29th-ranked expected points added and 58.4 completion percentage (53rd among quarterbacks). In case it’s not obvious, I’m not a believer.
Position to watch: Offensive line. PFF’s lowest-ranked unit has nowhere to go but up after offensive line mastermind Bill Callahan joined the coaching staff and drafted a first-round offensive lineman for the second consecutive year. The success of No. 7 pick JC Latham, who is expected to start at LT, will be critical after Titans tackles allowed an abysmal 15.4 pressure rate in 2023, nearly triple the league average.
Fantasy sleeper: RB Tyjae Spears. There were moments in 2023 when Spears was the Titans best runner, despite the presence of Derrick Henry, “a 16-wheeler with the acceleration of a Tesla” (from Dan Pompei’s piece on the new Raven). Entering year two, Spears is the 1B to Tony Pollard’s 1A, which is how they should be drafted. Buy Spears late in case Pollard’s red zone struggles continue.
Better than in 2023? It’s close. BetMGM has the Titans improving on 2023’s six wins (6.5) but finishing a clear tier below the rest of their division. One reason is their defense, which should improve with L’Jarius Sneed but can only go so far after finishing 28th in defensive expected points added.
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(Photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
