By Mike DeFabo, Jeff Zrebiec, Paul Dehner Jr. and Zac Jackson
Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers gather for a roundtable discussion on trending topics, the best players and the biggest factors in determining which teams can survive this division. It’s time for the Week 15 edition.
We all thought this would be a tightly contested division that went down to the wire. Yet, with four games to play, there’s at least a two-game separation between every team in the standings. Is the current order how the teams will ultimately finish, or do you still give Baltimore a realistic chance to overtake Pittsburgh?
Mike DeFabo (Pittsburgh Steelers): The Steelers’ path to the division title is as simple as this: Win next week in Baltimore and nothing else matters. But actually doing it? That could be a lot tougher, especially as star receiver George Pickens deals with a Grade 2 hamstring strain that will keep him out Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles and could linger into next week. If Baltimore can reverse the narrative that Pittsburgh has Lamar Jackson’s number and win out, the Steelers would need to beat the Bengals the final week of the season and collect a win against either the Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day. The Steelers are underdogs this week and probably won’t be favored against the Chiefs, either. I think Mike Tomlin’s team will find a way to get it done, whether that’s by beating Baltimore on the road in the pseudo-AFC North championship game or by knocking off one of the other two juggernauts. But given the challenges of this three-games-in-11-days gantlet, anything can happen.
Jeff Zrebiec (Baltimore Ravens): Yes, to both. The current order is likely how things will finish, but that doesn’t mean I’m ready to dismiss the Ravens’ chances of overtaking the Steelers. Baltimore has historically played well after its bye. The team is healthy, the defense is playing better and this is Derrick Henry’s time of year. When you combine those factors with Pittsburgh’s difficult schedule, it’s not crazy to think Baltimore could reel off four consecutive wins to close the regular season. My guess is the Steelers hold on, but the Ravens will make it interesting.
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Paul Dehner Jr. (Cincinnati Bengals): I’m not giving up on the Ravens just yet. I still think this division comes down to the final game between the two teams. The Steelers will run a gantlet of Jalen Hurts, Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow to close the season. Their defense isn’t as airtight as originally thought. More than likely, they hold on, but I like Baltimore’s chances if it can drop Pittsburgh at M&T Bank Stadium next week.
Zac Jackson (Cleveland Browns): It’s absolutely a realistic scenario. Given that the Tennessee Titans and Browns are next on Cincinnati’s schedule, a Bengals rally that ultimately falls one game short of the playoffs is realistic, too. I’m certainly not alone in thinking a Steelers team that’s likely to be without Pickens will lose in Philly this week, which makes Steelers-Ravens on Dec. 21 a huge game in Baltimore, assuming the Ravens beat Tommy DeVito on Sunday. This is the stuff “Hard Knocks” dreams are made of, and I think there’s still divisional drama ahead.
What’s one number or statistic, beyond win-loss record, that best explains where the team you cover resides in the standings?
DeFabo: The Steelers are currently tied with the Buffalo Bills for the NFL’s best turnover margin at plus-17. This is a good snapshot of how Pittsburgh is playing on both sides of the ball. Defensively, this may be one of the most complete units the Steelers have assembled in years. It’s a turnover-inducing unit that relies on splash plays to change games. Offensively, the Steelers have the second-most rushing attempts in the league and have complemented that ground-and-pound style with well-timed Russell Wilson moon balls. By protecting the ball and leaning on defense, the Steelers believe they have a formula to win in January.
T.J. Watt and the Steelers lead the NFL with 28 takeaways this season. (Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
Zrebiec: That eight of Justin Tucker’s 10 missed kicks came in five one-score losses, by a total of 22 points, is notable. But it feels like we’ve spent ample time discussing Tucker’s struggles. So let’s go with 105 and 885. That’s the number of penalties and penalty yards the Ravens have been assessed. Both numbers lead the league. The Ravens have said themselves that they’ve been held back by penalties and mistakes. They were outplayed in maybe two of their five losses. In the other three, they beat themselves. It’s tough to win tight games against really good teams, and the Ravens have played quite a few where they’ve consistently been set back with penalties.
Dehner: Picking just one abhorrent Bengals defensive statistic is so hard. It’s like choosing your favorite kid! I’ll go with this one, though, and it’s one you’ve likely seen by this point. It will be the number that defines the season. The Bengals have scored at least 33 points six times. They are 2-4 in those games. The rest of the NFL is 57-2. Have a good night, everybody.
Jackson: Probably that the Browns never got to 20 points or 200 yards passing in the first six games that Deshaun Watson started and completed. Because the question asks for one, I’ll focus more on the 20 points. Even if the Browns had gotten to 20 and won one more game — and they had their chances in Las Vegas and Philadelphia — the stakes would have been different in the back half of the season. In no way am I saying the Browns would have been a playoff team, but the inability to score stamped them as a team that would be long out of the postseason race. Cleveland couldn’t kick a field goal to force overtime in Las Vegas at the end of September because of an earlier missed point-after attempt. The Raiders haven’t won a game since.
Two episodes into “Hard Knocks: In Season with the AFC North,” what do you want to see more of and what do you want to see less?
DeFabo: We’ve always known Tomlin is a psychologist who is at his best when managing the emotions of players. The best part of the show is seeing behind-the-scenes moments, especially during games, when he’s interacting with players. It was pretty cool to see Tomlin put his arm around Pickens during the Bengals game after the pick six and keep the emotional receiver engaged. He similarly challenged Joey Porter Jr. in a supportive way after his six-penalty performance in Cincinnati. That said, it’s clear the teams have a lot of veto power when it comes to what is broadcast on reality TV. How did Diontae Johnson allegedly refuse to enter a game and then subsequently get suspended without even a mention? Tomlin called out Pickens, saying he needs to “grow up.” That news conference quote wasn’t even shown, and there wasn’t any mention of the Bengals game drama. The show feels a bit sterile at times.
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Zrebiec: There hasn’t been a whole lot of sizzle so far, but I think the best parts of the show have been the outside-of-the-facility interactions and the position room conversations. For example, I thought the footage of Ja’Marr Chase with Brixton Wood was touching and showed a side of Chase that I had never seen before. The Shelby Harris speech to his Browns teammates about auditioning for their roles next year was real and powerful. Tomlin in the meeting rooms is terrific. So, more of that and less game footage and snippets of extraneous interactions that don’t reveal anything about the particular person talking.
“When I do the Griddy tomorrow, it’s for you.”
Ja’Marr Chase practiced a new Griddy and dedicated his TD celebration to a young @Bengals fan battling cancer 🧡#HardKnocks pic.twitter.com/uRoyiPR96C
— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2024
Dehner: From a Bengals perspective, I’d like to see more of the dynamics going on behind the scenes on the defensive side of the ball. We’ve really heard and seen nothing about what’s gone wrong and the attempt at fixing the problems. That’s far from a ratings grabber, and I don’t expect the kid gloves “Hard Knocks” employs to go there, but I wouldn’t mind a view into some defensive meeting rooms right now. Can we get less game footage? I appreciate the mic’d-up element of the game and don’t want to diminish that, but this is supposed to be behind the scenes. More focus on that and less on what happened on national TV would be my preference.
Jackson: Even knowing the teams get veto power, I want to see more of the coaches watching film with players. Tomlin has been the star of the show, unsurprisingly, and my favorite segments are full of Tomlin-isms about preparation and keys. I still feel this was always going to be better in concept than reality, and that’s coming to life, but there’s beauty in taking us into the meetings and candid conversations. Though I enjoyed the Porter family segment and the reliving of the pregame fight in Cleveland that launched James Harrison’s career, I’d probably simplify my answer by saying less in the living rooms and more in the meeting rooms.
It’s prediction time. The headliner is Steelers-Eagles in the City of Brotherly Love. The Ravens and Bengals are on the road against bad Giants and Titans teams, respectively, while the Browns will play host to the AFC-leading Chiefs. Who you got?
DeFabo: The last time the Steelers traveled to Philadelphia in 2022, they were bullied by one of the NFL’s most physical teams. Running back Najee Harris produced one of the most memorable quotes of his career after rushing for zero yards in the first half, saying, “I can’t make a hole.” The Steelers must have agreed. Pittsburgh has transformed its offensive line over the last two drafts and in free agency. Four of the five offensive linemen will be different this time around, making this a test of how much the team’s emphasis on the trenches has paid off. I think the Steelers can compete. However, without Pickens to take the top off the defense, I have the Eagles winning at home. I like the Ravens and Bengals to take care of business. The Chiefs will win another game that’s closer than most people expect.
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Zrebiec: Neither the Ravens nor Bengals should have much trouble Sunday. If the Ravens do, they have bigger issues than we all thought. The Chiefs’ last four wins — two against the playing-out-the-string Raiders and Carolina Panthers — have come by nine total points. They haven’t won a game by more than a touchdown since Week 7. The Browns absolutely could win. However, I’ll go with the Chiefs and a predictable ending: either a Mahomes late scoring drive or a Jameis Winston late mistake. I’ll take the Eagles in a 24-21 type of game. I just think Philadelphia is a little better. This is a game where the Steelers will miss Pickens, too.
Dehner: Do the Eagles now have the record for worst vibes while on a nine-game win streak after the A.J. Brown drama? That almost makes me lean toward the Steelers, but I have loved what Philadelphia’s defense has become under Vic Fangio. I’ll take Philly by a field goal. Give me the Bengals topping old friend Brian Callahan by a touchdown and the Ravens dismantling the corpse of the Giants. I’m tempted to pick the Browns in an upset. My gut wants to be bold. My head tells me an absurd ending lands in the Chiefs’ favor. Give me Kansas City, 18-16, with a controversial flag making the difference.
Jackson: Myles Garrett versus a banged-up Kansas City offensive line is a bad matchup for the Chiefs, but they always find a way — and they’re not losing what might be Travis Kelce’s last homecoming game. Kansas City, 21-20. I think the Bengals will find themselves in another ugly one but again escape, something like 28-27. The Ravens will be giving carries to Patrick Ricard by the end of a 31-10 laugher, and the Eagles will survive the Breezewood Bowl, 13-10.
(Top photo of Najee Harris: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
