Nottingham Forest head to Crystal Palace on Monday desperately needing a win to breathe fresh life into their Champions League aspirations.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have lost three of their last four Premier League outings, with home defeats to Everton and Brentford only made worse by flat, uninspired performances.
Nuno was able to name something close to his full-strength side against Brentford, but what followed was an uncharacteristically fragile defensive display in a 2-0 defeat.
While Monday’s defeat prompted a panicked reaction on social media, it is still a remarkable season — and Forest can still achieve their Champions League dreams.
They sit only three points off Chelsea (fifth) and Newcastle (fourth) ahead of their game in hand against Palace tonight. With just four matches games remaining, Nuno admitted his challenge is to get them back to what made them thrive over the last nine months.
But what are the most important factors for Forest, if they are to get back to their best, as they head to the capital?
Mentality is key
Any suggestion that this side have somehow ‘bottled it’, as some suggested on social media, is frankly ridiculous.
Nobody would have seen Champions League football as even a remote possibility for Forest back in August. Even if the worst happens and they do fall away from the race for a top-five finish, the achievements of this group of players are something to be lauded and celebrated.
After two years fighting relegation, Nuno has had his side going toe-to-toe with the big boys at the top end of the table. And they are almost certain to secure European football of some kind for the first time since 1995-96.
There is not one Forest fan who would have sniffed at the thought of that. But there has been one major change in recent weeks.
For months, the expectation around the wider football world had been that Forest would slip out of contention because they were overachieving and it could not last forever. There was very little pressure on the Forest players because, even after being in the top four since December, there was little expectation. But as we approached the final stages of the campaign, the possibility of Champions League football became a stark reality.
Now there is a burden on their shoulders. They absolutely still can get over the line, if they can play with the same conviction as before.
Forest now have the weight of expectation on them (Molly Darlington/Getty Images)
Forest won three penalty shootouts on their way to the FA Cup semi-final, won at Anfield and Old Trafford and beat Manchester United and Manchester City at the City Ground.
Forest have not bottled anything. They have got this far on the back of tremendous spirit and belief and, armed with that, anything is still possible.
A change of identity is not required… but perhaps it needs tweaking
Forest’s almost unique identity has been at the core of their success.
Let the opposition have the ball, lure them into a position where there is space to exploit and hit them on the counter-attack. Forest have averaged 40.3 per cent possession. The issue is that when they are allowed to dominate the ball, their approach becomes far less effective.
Since promotion from the Championship in 2022, Forest have won just one of their 15 games in the competition in which they have had at least 51 per cent possession (D8 L6). Brentford was the latest example of this, with Forest having 55 per cent possession. On Monday, they face a Palace side who have a similar mentality — they have averaged just 42.7 per cent possession at Selhurst Park. Forest’s other remaining away game is at West Ham, who have averaged 49.4 per cent possession at home.
The upcoming home games against already relegated Leicester City and Champions League qualification rivals Chelsea will have a different dynamic.
Leicester have conceded 42 goals in 17 away games, including 14 in their last six matches on the road, which has seen them collect only a single point from a 2-2 draw at Brighton. They have lost 12 of their 17 away games. They have not won any of their last 12 outings in all competitions.
Nuno often states that there are no easy games in the Premier League. He is right. But that is a fixture that — even taking local rivalry into account — a side with Champions League aspirations should be expecting to win.
While Chelsea, who visit for what feels likely to be a huge fixture on the final day, have averaged the second-most possession on the road this season (59.7 per cent) behind Manchester City (60.5 per cent). The City Ground will be rocking for both of their home games; fans will ensure there is an intimidating, partisan atmosphere.
But the challenge in their away games will be to find a way to get something from Palace and West Ham, who are not teams that generally dominate on the ball.
Finding their killer touch again…
Forest have never been the most prolific scorers this season. The 1.53 goals per 90 they have averaged (53 goals from 34 games) puts them joint-ninth in the Premier League, along with Aston Villa and Bournemouth.
Where they have thrived is in their ruthless level of finishing. The 52 non-penalty goals Forest have scored exceed their 40.4 xG (expected goals) by 11.6.
But Forest have failed to score in three of their last four games in all competitions and, more broadly, have scored four in their last seven. Since beating Brighton 7-0 in February, they have found the net only twice in their five home games.
Chris Wood has scored 19 of Forest’s 53 goals. He has contributed 36 per cent of his team’s tally, which is a bigger percentage than any other player in the top flight. Beyond him, Elanga has scored six and Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi — who now has a hamstring injury that makes him a doubt for the remaining games — have provided five.
Wood has been Forest’s top scorer this season (Gareth Copley/Getty Images)
The New Zealand international has recently been sidelined with a hip problem, suffered while playing for his country in late March. But, either side of that, Wood has scored just once in nine appearances for Forest, his worst run of scoring form since the first nine games of last season, when he also scored only once. Back then, though, he was used as a sub in seven of those fixtures.
Wood’s contribution to Forest’s rise has been massive.
But in his three league games since returning from injury, he has had only three shots (one on target). Wood is a player who has flourished despite a limited number of efforts on goal — he has averaged a relatively modest 1.84 per 90 during the current campaign.
Where he has excelled is in making the most of his opportunities. His rate of 0.30 goals per shot is the most prolific in the Premier League — for comparison, the division’s top scorer with 28 goals, Mohamed Salah, has averaged 0.17 goals per shot.
Wood came close to scoring against Brentford with a header. But that was his only real sight of goal. And even he cannot put away the chances he doesn’t get.
With Forest having lost eight of the nine games in which they have not scored the first goal, their ability to find their own scoring touch again will be vital.
(Top photo: Gareth Copley/Getty Images)