- Bitcoin’s apparent demand, measured by the 30-day sum of daily block subsidies minus one-year inactive supply changes, signaled bearish pressure
- Holders accelerated selling, reinforcing bearish market conditions
Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent price movements reflected a complex interplay between demand, leveraged traders’ sentiment, and key stakeholders’ actions. As BTC dropped from $84,600, traders miscalculated market direction, with many taking long positions at the wrong time.
At the same time, large Bitcoin holders reduced their positions, increasing selling pressure across the board. Moreover, demand indicators seemed to point to one of the weakest periods of 2025, with new supply exceeding inactive supply.
Bitcoin’s apparent demand, measured by the 30-day sum of daily block subsidies minus one-year inactive supply changes, hinted at bearish pressure at press time. Between 2 December 2024 and 10 March 2025, demand peaked at 105k BTC on 16 December 2024, with the price at $97.5k.
However, by 3 March 2025, demand had plummeted to -100k BTC as the cryptocurrency dropped to $80k on the charts. The 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of demand also declined from 105k BTC to 77.5k BTC, reinforcing this downtrend.
A shift from positive demand to negative demand occurred after mid-January 2025, with sustained negative demand taking hold by 17 February 2025. This shift suggested that new supply outpaced the retention of inactive BTC, leading to downward pressure on the price.
If demand remains negative, Bitcoin could test $75k, potentially declining to $70k. A reversal above 0 might stabilize the crypto at $85k, though sustained buying pressure would be needed to confirm a recovery.
Misalignment with market trends
That’s not all though. Leveraged traders misjudged Bitcoin’s price movement, as sentiment shifts failed to align with the price action. From 2 February to 9 March, Bitcoin traded at $95k while top trader sentiment registered -2.8 – A sign of extreme bearishness.
By 16 February, sentiment flipped to 2.8 as the price fell to $85k, indicating that traders were going long despite the downtrend.
Source: Alphractal
The Moving Averages (MA7, MA21, MA50) of sentiment fluctuated, with the MA50 peaking at 2.2 on 23 February, even as the crypto dropped to $80k. On 9 March, sentiment fell to 1.4 while Bitcoin recovered to $84k, again misaligning with price direction.
This persistent misjudgment is a sign of overconfidence in a rally that did not materialize. If traders continue this pattern, further liquidations could push BTC to $78k. However, a realignment of sentiment with price trends could support a recovery, though market behavior remains unpredictable.
Stakeholders’ selling adds pressure
Finally, Large Bitcoin holders accelerated selling, reinforcing bearish market conditions. Over the last three months, wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC reduced their holdings by 50,625 BTC, decreasing their market share from 23.48% to 22.94%.
Similarly, wallets with 10–100 BTC shed 7,062 BTC, bringing their share down from 21.84% to 21.71%.
Source: Santiment
This selling trend coincided with Bitcoin’s price decline from $97k to $84k between 21 January and 2 March. The selling pressure intensified as the crypto neared $80k on 22 February – A sign that major stakeholders lacked confidence in the price sustaining higher levels.
If this trend persists, Bitcoin could test $75k. However, if large holders begin accumulating again, BTC might rebound to $88k.
Bitcoin’s road forward
Bitcoin’s outlook remains uncertain, with weak demand, misaligned trader sentiment, and large stakeholder selling shaping its trajectory. Demand dropped to -100K BTC on 3 March, reflecting market weakness.
Leveraged traders consistently miscalculated trends, with sentiment shifts failing to align with price movements. Meanwhile, stakeholders offloaded 57,687 BTC, increasing downward pressure.
If these trends persist, Bitcoin may decline further to $75k. However, a shift in demand or improving trader sentiment could trigger a recovery to $90k.
