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An explosive offense filled with talented weapons makes the Philadelphia Eagles a fun team to track for Super Bowl player props. Piling up 35 points per game during this season’s playoffs, the rolling Eagles offense offers some intriguing choices on the prop front.
Featuring MVP candidates like running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts, and a talented receiving tandem in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia’s offense allows for plenty of options.
Saquon Barkley
The battle of a red-hot Barkley against a strong Kansas City Chiefs run defense makes the star running back’s prop market one to watch. Dominating the postseason with five touchdowns over the last two games, Barkley is averaging 22 carries and 147 rushing yards per game in three Eagles playoff wins.
Barkley faces a stiff test against a Kansas City defense that hasn’t let any opposing running back go over 100 rushing yards this season. During defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s six-year tenure, the Chiefs haven’t given up 100 yards to any individual running back during the NFL playoffs.
Something has to give.
Breaking a big run could be the difference for Barkley’s over-under of 111.5 rushing yards. With an NFL record seven touchdown runs of 60-plus yards this season — including three such plays in the last two games — Barkley is capable of game-changing plays on any touch.
Becoming more of an offensive focal point as the season progressed, Barkley carried more than his over-under of 21.5 rushing attempts in eight of his last 12 games. For Barkley to hit his rushing overs, the Eagles must stick with their ground-based attack while Barkley pads his rushing totals with a few big runs.
Although Barkley’s over-under 11.5 receiving yards might feel tempting, the Eagles’ have used him mostly as a ball carrier late in the season. Barkley only went over 11.5 receiving yards once in the last eight games.
Jalen Hurts
The prop market is fascinating for Hurts after an up-and-down season.
A big game against Washington in the NFC Championship eased concerns about a knee injury Hurts suffered in the Eagles’ playoff win over Los Angeles. Hurts threw for 246 yards against the Commanders, which was only Hurts’ second game over 200 passing yards in his last eight. Hurts even joked after the game that Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni “let me out of my straitjacket a little bit.”
Will the Eagles eliminate their conservative, run-based approach in the final game of the season? That’s the major question as it relates to Hurts’ over-under of 215.5 passing yards. If the Eagles air it out or have to match points with Kansas City, Hurts’ modest passing totals should hit. Should Philadelphia control the lead and the clock, a Barkley-dominated game plan could be a sticking point for the Eagles, making it difficult for Hurts to achieve significant passing yardage.
On the rushing front, Hurts has attempted 10 or more runs on nine occasions this season — including the NFC Championship win over Washington. The situational nature of Hurts attempting runs — often in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios — is difficult to predict, but Hurts has attempted at least seven or more carries in 16 of the 17 full games he’s played this season. That establishes a consistent floor for running the ball.
Wide receivers and tight ends
Similar to Hurts’ props, how the Eagles play offense will dictate how Philadelphia’s receivers will be used.
That starts with star receiver A.J. Brown. Noticeably irritated by his lack of targets after Philadelphia’s Week 14 win over Carolina, Brown’s relationship with Hurts was publicly called into question before an Eagles unified front shut down any concerns. Brown responded to the public snafu with back-to-back strong performances in Weeks 15 and 16 — catching 16 passes on 26 targets for 207 yards and two TDs across two games.
Brown’s involvement in the offense has since regressed with Hurts’ injuries and playoff competition. Against Washington, Brown broke out of a mini-slump with 96 receiving yards on six catches. That’s a huge improvement from Philadelphia’s first two playoff games when Brown only caught three total passes for 24 yards and zero touchdowns.
So Brown’s over-under of 69.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions is a volatile market thanks to the unpredictable nature of his involvement in the offense.
Smith has seen more consistent involvement in Philadelphia’s offense than Brown this postseason — but not by much.
Smith has exactly four catches on four targets in all three of Philadelphia’s postseason wins. In the last eight games, Smith has at least four receptions in every contest. So the over-under of 4.5 receptions for Smith is an enticing number if you believe Philadelphia’s game flow will skew more toward the passing game than normal.
Smith’s over-under of 50.5 receiving yards feels like a bit of a trap. In his last nine games, Smith had a four-game stretch of going over 50 receiving yards in each game, but he failed to reach 50 receiving yards outside of that window — including the last two games.
Dallas Goedert’s resurgence is a fun postseason storyline for the Eagles. The veteran tight end leads all Philly pass catchers in targets, catches, yards and yards after catch during the postseason.
Those numbers are reflected in Goedert’s player prop lines — which are close to Smith’s.
Since returning from a hamstring injury in January, Goedert has exactly four receptions in three out of four games. His over-under 4.5 receptions is the same as Smith’s. With at least one reception of 20-plus yards in each playoff win, Goedert has gone over his 52.5 receiving yards total in three of the last four games.
Kansas City’s blitz-heavy defense (fourth in regular-season blitz rate) could lead to a lot of quick throws from Hurts, which is something to keep in mind for the receptions markets of all three players in the Super Bowl.
(Photo of Saquon Barkley: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
