I know what you’re thinking: $500 million for a first baseman? Without him even going to free agency? Insane.
No argument, but the Toronto Bridesmaids – er, Blue Jays – didn’t have much of a choice with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The loss of Guerrero – a native Canadian, homegrown talent and franchise pillar – would have devastated the Jays. Now, at least, the team can build around Guerrero, whether under this front office or another, and Toronto fans can rejoice over the one who did not get away.
Get ready for a slew of anonymous quotes from rival executives criticizing the Blue Jays as irresponsible. Wash, rinse, repeat. Jays fans – and really, most fans – don’t care whether their team acts responsibly. They care about keeping players who are faces of the franchise.
This deal accomplishes that – and with a $35.7 million average annual value over 14 years, the Guerrero contract arguably is more logical than Juan Soto’s $51 million AAV over 15 years with the New York Mets.
With Soto, who signed as a free agent, rivals essentially just threw up their hands and said, “Well, that’s Steve Cohen.” Rogers Communications, owner of the Blue Jays, is a company with Cohen-like financial muscle. It is under no obligation to fret over the ripple effects of the Guerrero extension – which, in present value, is worth about $40 million more than Shohei Ohtani’s free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
For those who will howl, “Salary cap now!” the Guerrero deal is precisely why the players so vehemently oppose a firm restriction at the top of the pay scale. The free market works quite well for elite talents, thank you very much. And the middle class would not necessarily do any better under a cap system.
Guerrero celebrates with shortstop Bo Bichette, who now becomes the Blue Jays’ most prominent free-agent to be. (John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)
When awarding massive contracts, teams place a premium on players in their mid-to late-20s. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, without throwing a single pitch in the majors, landed his record $325 million deal for a pitcher entering his age-25 season. Soto got his $765 million entering his age-26 season. Guerrero’s deal will begin in 2026, entering his age-27 season. And none of those contracts include deferrals.
The Guerrero agreement is great news for right fielder Kyle Tucker, a superior all-around player to Guerrero, and bad news for the Chicago Cubs, the team that acquired Tucker entering his walk year. Tucker, 28, is two years older than Guerrero, so the deal he gets probably will not be as long. But in open bidding, his AAV figures to be at least $40 million. And maybe a good bit higher. Twelve years, $42 million a year, a $504 million guarantee? Cubs owner Tom Ricketts already is weeping.
The price for the Mets to retain their own first baseman, Pete Alonso, probably just went up as well. Alonso, who at 30 is four years older than Guerrero, struggled on the open market last offseason. The two-year, $54 million contract he signed with the Mets includes an opt-out after this season, one Alonso is certain to exercise if his hot start is the prelude to a monster year. True, Alonso will continue to face questions about his defense and athleticism. But Guerrero and Soto faced those questions, too, and at younger ages. Have at it, Steve Cohen.
If rival clubs want to complain about the Guerrero contract, their most valid argument would be that the Jays should have locked him up for less money long ago. The Jays had numerous chances to do just that, particularly after the San Diego Padres awarded Fernando Tatis Jr. a 14-year, $340 million extension in Feb. 2021. But the Jays hemmed and hawed, making one offer after another that Guerrero deemed insufficient. And after the Soto contract – one the entire sport saw coming, if not quite to that magnitude – they found themselves in a corner from which they could not escape.
Guerrero wound up with a guarantee almost four times the career earnings of his father, Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero Sr., who played from 1996 to 2011. Yep, salaries keep going bonkers, just as franchise values keep going bonkers. No one – no player, no owner – is going broke in an industry that last season generated $12.1 billion in revenue.
The Guerrero agreement is no more insane than Alex Rodriguez’s initial $252 million free-agent deal with the Texas Rangers in 2000. And Giancarlo Stanton’s $325 million extension with the Miami Marlins. And Mike Trout’s $426.5 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels. None of those contracts aged well, of course. Numerous others have not, either. For better or worse, such is the price of doing business. But the current system will not remain intact without a fight.
Owners already are agitating for a cap. Players already are bracing for a lockout commissioner Rob Manfred all but promised when the current collective-bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season. It need not come to all that. The parties can address issue of payroll disparity, a very real one in this sport, in numerous other ways.
A first baseman getting $500 million without going to free agency figures to only heighten tensions. Yes, it was an isolated case, a last-ditch effort by a desperate team to retain a superstar it could not bear to lose. But try telling the players the system is broken. It’s a losing argument, 500 million times over.
(Top photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Elsa/Getty Images)