Inside: Four things we can learn from last April, why a tush push ban feels inevitable and three stories you might’ve missed. Let’s jump in.
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NFL Draft: Lessons from last year
If these newsletters were handwritten, I’d have taken out a forest with today’s wasted paper. It eventually got to a clean four lessons the 2024 draft can teach us about 2025. Let’s dive in.
1. Top quarterbacks go early before a big drop. Last April, Jayden Daniels was considered a bit of a reach with the second pick (he was No. 9 on the consensus Big Board). Michael Penix Jr. was No. 45 pre-draft but drafted eighth, J.J. McCarthy went from No. 21 to the 10th pick and Bo Nix was viewed as a borderline second-rounder, but the Broncos were glad to draft him 12th overall.
After that, Spencer Rattler (No. 100 pre-draft) fell to the fifth round, suggesting teams either scrambled to get their guy or waited for a lower-tier quarterback.
This is great news for quarterbacks like Cam Ward (No. 12 on today’s consensus Big Board), Shedeur Sanders (No. 32) and Jaxson Dart (No. 53), though I don’t expect such a large gap between Dart and players like Alabama’s Jalen Milroe (No. 75) and Louisville’s Tyler Shough (No. 87) come draft day.
2. Expect an athleticism bump at premium positions. If the late Al Davis had written a draft guide, it would’ve opened with this quote: “Speed kills. You can’t teach speed. Everything else in the game can be taught, but speed is a gift from God.”
Players at premium positions (think players who get especially big contracts, like receivers, pass rushers and offensive tackles) see their draft stocks soar with strong speed and size metrics from the combine.
Last year, Xavier Worthy’s record-setting 40 yard sprint vaulted him from 41st on the consensus Big Board to 28th on draft day. Edge Chop Robinson (ranked No. 25, drafted 21st by Miami) and OT JC Latham (No. 12 ranking, drafted No. 7 by Tennessee) were two others whose metrics outweighed their production, in the eyes of GMs.
This time, Texas receiver Matthew Golden (27th on Dane Brugler’s updated Big Board) ran the fastest among receivers (4.29). Texas A&M edge Shemar Stewart lit up the combine after having just 4.5 sacks and 11 TFLs in his three seasons — he fell to No. 31 in Bruce Feldman’s latest mock draft, but come draft day, could be boosted by his traits.
3. Cornerbacks fall. Last year, the top corner debate was between Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell and Alabama’s Terrion Arnold. Many mocks had both in the top 10, with their consensus rankings (No. 15 and No. 13, respectively) making it seem possible.
But then Mitchell fell to Philly at 22nd, Arnold to Detroit at 24th and two other top-30 prospects, CB Cooper DeJean and CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, out of the first round altogether.
Our 2025 beat reporter mock continues the cornerback trend, with Michigan’s Will Johnson (ranked No. 7) landing in Seattle at No. 18 and Texas’ CB Jahdae Barron (No. 13) in Baltimore at No. 27.
4. To be honest, our draft guides foreshadow everything. This quickly became obvious to me while researching for today’s newsletter. Two examples from last year:
- Beat reporter Jourdan Rodrigue wrote that the Rams were planning to replace DT Aaron Donald with multiple draftees. They did exactly that, landing first-round edge Jared Verse before trading up to draft his Florida State teammate DT Braden Fiske in round two. That created a five-headed monster.
- The Eagles held the No. 22 pick, and beat reporter Brooks Kubena projected it would be used for a cornerback, particularly Toledo’s Mitchell (then No. 11 on Dane Brugler’s Big Board). Again, exactly what happened. Second on Brooks’ list? Iowa’s DeJean, whom the Eagles drafted in the second round. Both were crucial to Philly’s playoff success.
Much more to come over the next few weeks. For now, you can find all The Athletic’s 2025 draft guides here. Over to Dianna:
What Dianna’s Hearing: A tush-push ban is likely
The tush push was among the topics co-host Chase Daniel and I discussed in the latest episode of the “Scoop City” podcast …
Dianna: Roger Goodell does not like the play. He thinks it’s ugly. He doesn’t think it’s a football play. Look, Sean Payton stood up — he’s for the tush push — he said there’s a better chance of us getting in a car wreck on the drive to the Linc than for these players to be injured in the tush push. The fact that this was tabled (at the league meeting) tells me that they’re going to ban the tush push.
Chase: This year?
Dianna: This year. They’re gonna find a way to get it out of football.
Chase: Why?
Dianna: Some of them want to be in line with Roger Goodell. I think some believe it’s an ugly play. And I think, whether or not they’ll admit it, if you can’t beat it, ban it.
Back to Jacob.
Famous relatives in 2025 NFL draft class
Few things in life confirm the passing of time like hearing Frank Gore Jr. is entering the draft. Dane Brugler shared with me this year’s crop of prospects with famous relatives — more details will be in “The Beast,” which is live on April 9.
- Wyoming S Wyett Ekeler, the younger brother of Commanders RB Austin Ekeler.
- Michigan OT Myles Hinton, son of seven-time Pro Bowler Chris Hinton, known for his time on the 1980s Colts.
- Washington LB Carson Bruener, son of Mark Bruener, who played in Pittsburgh for nine of his 14 NFL seasons. The Athletic profiled the unlikely star back in 2021.
- Boston College OG Drew Kendall, son of Pete Kendall, a first-round pick by the Seahawks who spent 13 years in the NFL.
- LSU TE Mason Taylor is the son of Jason Taylor, the Hall of Fame defensive end, and the nephew of Zach Thomas, the Hall of Fame linebacker. Must be nice. Expect the Jets to be interested.
Of course, this group’s most famous football son is QB Shedeur Sanders, who will throw at Colorado’s pro day today. Here’s how you can watch it.
Every Friday, I share three stories from The Athletic that you might have missed.
Struggles of an all-time great
“In his best days as a pass rusher, I don’t think there was any better,” said a former teammate of Mark Gastineau, who set the NFL’s single-season sack record (22) in 1984. It stood for nearly 20 years until Brett Favre took a controversial dive to give Michael Stahan 22.5. Gastineau made headlines for confronting Favre about it late last year, and again for suing ESPN and the NFL for $25 million after they aired the viral exchange in a documentary. If you’re not familiar with Gastineau, you should fix that by reading Dan Pompei’s illuminating profile.
NFL execs, unfiltered
Some of the eyebrow-raising quotes Mike Sando collected from high-ranking team officials about teams in the NFC:
- The Panthers: “They were a three-year reset from last year, so this is just year two for them.”
- The Cowboys: “They are more serious about staying relevant and keeping that brand up high than they are about winning.”
- The Giants: “They went to Cam Ward’s pro day, came back from that and signed Russell Wilson. To me, that says that the owner said, ‘You cannot trade up for a quarterback. If one falls to you, great, draft him, but you are not trading up for one.’”
The full article is worth your time.
Amicable standoff in Atlanta
Twelve months ago, Kirk Cousins was the Falcons’ new hope. A playoff win would make his $40 million cap charge in 2025 a bargain. Instead, it’s a burden. At nearly eight times the cost of sophomore Michael Penix Jr., Cousins is an extremely expensive backup.
The 36-year-old wants to be a starter this year, but Atlanta hasn’t given him permission to speak with other teams. Yet. Josh Kendall has every juicy detail after the Falcons’ brass spoke earlier this week.
Wednesday’s most-clicked: NFL announces Sony’s Hawk-Eye tech will replace chain gangs for measuring first downs.
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