The Buffalo Sabres hit the halfway point of their season in last place in the Eastern Conference. By every measure, they are one of the most disappointing teams in the NHL through 41 games.
Here’s a snapshot of where the Sabres are in some key stat categories as of Thursday.
Goals for per game: 15th
Goals against per game: 28th
Goals for per game at five-on-five: 8th
Goals against per game at five-on-five: 24th
Expected goals percentage at five-on-five: 26th
Power play: 24th
Penalty kill: 21st
Sabres coach Lindy Ruff said this week the team has been changing some things about how they play. He’s tried changing some offensive zone tactics to create scoring chances in different ways. Defensively, Ruff continues to drill on habits, particularly with centers handling their responsibilities down low. Ruff has also changed some of the emphasis in the neutral zone.
“I would say probably a little less aggressive in some cases where we don’t give up the odd-number rushes, which we’ve kind of cleaned up here now again.”
The season has been a constant work in progress for Ruff and his staff. When one problem gets solved, another seems to pop up.
With that in mind, here’s a player-by-player look at a team that has 35 points at the halfway point of the season. How is each player performing relative to expectations?
Exceeding expectations
Jason Zucker
Zucker is currently second on the Sabres in both goals and points. He leads the team with eight power-play goals, sparking a unit that started the season as one of the league’s worst. Zucker, who turns 33 next week, has been everything the Sabres could have hoped for when they signed him to a one-year, $5 million contract.
Bowen Byram
Byram has been Buffalo’s most consistent presence on the blue line. While Owen Power has worked through the growing pains of a young defenseman and Rasmus Dahlin has worked through the literal pain of injuries, Byram has played every game and racked up 22 points, 21 of which have come at even strength. The price of his next contract has definitely gone up since the start of the season.
Meeting high expectations
Alex Tuch
Tuch trails Tage Thompson and Zucker in points, but his impact on the game gives him the edge in these grades. Tuch has been solid on the penalty kill, is plus-13 and leads all Sabres forwards with a 59 percent on-ice goal share at five-on-five.
Rasmus Dahlin
Considering he started the season playing through a back injury and then missed time because of it, Dahlin has earned a high grade for the first half of the season. He still makes mistakes defensively, but the Sabres have 55 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice at five-on-five. He also has 29 points in the 33 games he’s played. Dahlin is Buffalo’s best player and has looked like that consistently since he got healthy.
Slightly below high expectations
Tage Thompson
Thompson set the bar high when he had 94 points two seasons ago. He has a team-leading 19 goals and 34 points in 36 games, having missed five games with an injury. The Sabres also have 58 percent of the high-danger chances when he’s on the ice at five-on-five. Thompson is currently playing through another injury that’s preventing him from playing center, but he’s still impacting games. He may not be a 90-point player this season, but his value is still evident.
Not meeting high expectations
Owen Power
Power’s offensive output makes up for some of what he still lacks in his own end. He has 22 even-strength points, fifth best in the league among defensemen. But he doesn’t have a single power-play point despite quarterbacking the second unit. And the Sabres have 45 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice at five-on-five. That’s the worst mark of his career.
JJ Peterka
While Peterka hasn’t taken the leap forward the Sabres were banking on, he’s still on pace for 60 points despite missing time with a concussion early in the season. He’s at 10 goals through 41 games, which is underwhelming considering the power-play and top-line time he’s gotten. Ruff has pushed him down the lineup at times and even benched him during one game. Consistency is the main thing holding Peterka back from being higher in the “meeting high expectations” category. He’s been a streaky scorer this season.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Luukkonen’s .894 save percentage and 3.05 goals-against average are disappointing numbers after the way he finished last season. He has a quality start percentage of .517, according to Hockey Reference, putting him below league average. According to Money Puck, Luukkonen is 70th in the NHL in goals saved above expected. Luukkonen also hasn’t had a ton of help around him consistently. He hasn’t been Buffalo’s problem.
Well below high expectations
Mattias Samuelsson
Injuries have again hampered Samuelsson. Since he’s been healthy he’s shown some encouraging signs. But he is still minus-8, and the Sabres have 44 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice at five-on-five. Those marks are the worst among Buffalo’s top-six defensemen.
Dylan Cozens
Cozens’ on-ice goals-against average at five-on-five is 3.56, the worst among Sabres who have played in at least half of the team’s games. He’s minus-14 and on pace for 40 points. For a player carrying a $7.1 million cap hit, that’s a major disappointment. Cozens has the fifth most power-play ice time on the team and has just two power-play points.
Jack Quinn
Quinn has been a healthy scratch often this season, and the Sabres have just 43 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice at five-on-five. That’s the worst mark among all of Buffalo’s full-time players. He has five goals and 14 points and is minus-14 at the halfway mark. He’s been the team’s biggest disappointment.
Zach Benson’s competitiveness stands out for Buffalo on a consistent basis. (Timothy T. Ludwig / USA Today)
Young players showing encouraging development
Jiří Kulich
It took him a little bit to find his way and he’s currently dealing with an injury, but Kulich deserves high marks for how he’s played as a rookie. Kulich is making a positive impact on games for the Sabres. He has seven goals and nine points in 31 games, but he’s tied for the team lead with five goals at five-on-five since Dec. 1.
Zach Benson
Benson has only 13 points in 35 games, but he spent time playing through an ankle injury early in the season. Seven of those 13 points have come since Dec. 1. His 24 individual high-danger chances at five-on-five since that point are the best on the team. The Sabres also have 52 percent of the scoring chances when Benson is on the ice at five-on-five. That’s second to only Thompson among the Sabres’ forwards. His competitiveness stands out on a consistent basis. The offensive output should come as the 19-year-old continues to develop.
Meeting expectations based on role
Connor Clifton
Clifton leads the Sabres in hits and has an on-ice expected goal share of 48 percent. He’s also plus-3. Clifton leads the team in giveaways but is second on the team in takeaways, too. Given his role as a third-pairing defenseman, Clifton is pulling his weight more often than not.
Beck Malenstyn
Malenstyn was brought in to provide energy and physicality to Buffalo’s fourth line. He’s done that with 95 hits through 41 games despite limited ice time. The Sabres’ revamped fourth line hasn’t come together the way general manager Kevyn Adams hoped, but Malenstyn has played his role well.
Peyton Krebs
Krebs entered the season as the Sabres’ 13th forward. He’s managed to play in 40 of the Sabres’ 41 games by taking advantage of the opportunities he’s been given. The underlying numbers aren’t great, but Krebs has played both center and wing on multiple different lines. The lack of consistent linemates has contributed to some of those numbers. While the Sabres hoped he would be a top-six scoring threat when they acquired him in the Jack Eichel trade, Krebs’ 24-point pace is fine given his current role and salary.
Dennis Gilbert
Gilbert’s on-ice metrics aren’t great, but he has also only played in 13 games. When he plays, you can see the physical edge Gilbert brings and the intensity with which he plays. For a player making under $1 million to play a part-time role, he’s brought what the Sabres wanted.
Jacob Bryson
Like Gilbert, Bryson is doing about what you would expect a seventh or eighth defenseman on your roster to do given his salary. He’s played 24 games, is a minus-3 and the Sabres have 47 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice at five-on-five. His puck management has been better this season.
Needs improvement
Ryan McLeod
McLeod has 18 points through the first half of the season, which doesn’t jump off the page. The Sabres also have only 45 percent of the expected goals and 42 percent of the scoring chances when he’s on the ice at five-on-five. McLeod has been solid on the penalty kill, but Buffalo would like more from him given the price it paid to acquire him.
James Reimer
The Sabres are 1-5-1 in Reimer’s starts. His underlying metrics are OK, but he hasn’t been any more than a replacement-level backup.
Henri Jokiharju
Jokiharju’s on-ice goals-against average at five-on-five is a team-best 2.08. That number was boosted by playing with Dahlin early in the season, but it’s still noteworthy considering how often Jokiharju has been scratched. For a player making more than $3 million, the Sabres haven’t gotten enough out of Jokiharju. Ruff wants to see more consistent puck management as well as more intensity and physicality from him.
Sam Lafferty
Injuries and inconsistent play have prevented Lafferty from finding a consistent spot in the lineup. He has just three points in 30 games and 15 giveaways to just one takeaway. That’s not what the Sabres were hoping for when they signed him to a two-year deal worth $2 million per season.
Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Aube-Kubel is another player who has been impacted by injuries. He had a knee injury early in the season and came back earlier than expected. He’s played only 18 games. There are times when his forechecking and physicality are noticeable, but he also needs to cut down on his turnovers.
Injured
Jordan Greenway
Greenway is out long-term after having surgery on what Ruff described as a mid-body injury. In the 20 games he’s played, Greenway has been among Buffalo’s most effective forwards defensively and a huge asset on the penalty kill. If he’s healthy come the trade deadline, teams will be calling.
(Photo of Jack Quinn, Jason Zucker, Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson: Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)
