Why the Bills' playoff opponents are likely to test their run defense

Following two road games with a breakneck scoring pace, the Bills returned to the frigid air of Orchard Park and saw a freeze on both their scoring and the point total of their opponents. The Bills managed a 24-21 win over the Patriots and their streak of eight straight games scoring 30 or more came to an end.

The Bills are now only two regular season games away from their playoff journey, though games like Sunday’s tilt can provide some valuable lessons as they prepare for tough matchups every week come January. What can we glean from the coaches film of the Patriots game?

After studying the All-22, what were the areas of strength, the areas of concern and good reminders for future weeks? Here are some takeaways from the film.

What happened to the run defense this time?

After the game, Bills head coach Sean McDermott was not pleased. One week after they stymied one half of the excellent Lions running duo, the Bills fell back on hard times against the Patriots — specifically early in the game. New England was able to move the ball in bunches on the ground, and a familiar tune of the Bills’ 2024 season popped back up against an opponent that doesn’t boast the same talent as the Lions from a week ago. Where the Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league, the Patriots have one of the worst. And the Patriots’ running backs, Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, have skill groups similar to those of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs but are downgrades from the Lions’ runners. So how were the Patriots able to move the ball so effectively, even against some stacked boxes? It really comes down to losing one-on-one battles, with some pretty clear culprits throughout the game.

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It certainly begins up front, and while the defensive tackles likely get most of the attention for run defending, the defensive ends need to be on top of their games too — especially because teams have liked to use wide rushes to test the Bills’ linebackers and safeties. At defensive tackle, it was not a good week, almost across the board. DaQuan Jones was the best of the bunch, though his impact wasn’t felt nearly as much as earlier in his Bills career. Ed Oliver went from playing with his hair on fire against the Lions to being kept in place or even pushed off his spot in run defending versus the Patriots. They need more out of Oliver as a run defender, as that has been a strength of his game his entire career.

The top substitutes, Austin Johnson and Jordan Phillips, both struggled at the point of attack. Johnson got better as the game went along, but his early struggles really put a dent in the Bills’ run defense. Phillips is usually a run-defending liability, as he often gets moved from his spot and lacks the sideline-to-sideline speed to get a hand on a ball carrier on a wide rush. Phillips did pop for an outstanding run-defending rep late in the game, but that was the exception to the rest of his game.

On top of that unit, the Patriots took advantage of three defensive ends in particular in the running game: A.J. Epenesa, Dawuane Smoot and Von Miller. Epenesa has gotten better in recent weeks, but edge contain against wide rushes has always been an inconsistent battle for him. Smoot got pinned inside a few times, and Miller completely whiffed on reading rookie quarterback Drake Maye on a quarterback keeper. Miller was at his best as a pass rusher, and that’s why he graded out highly.

But the defensive linemen can only do so much and they need to be supported by the second-level defenders. That’s where the play of the linebackers, particularly early in the game, really set the Bills back. Baylon Spector got the spot start with early-down duty in place of Matt Milano, and it was a struggle right from the beginning of the game. Spector left with a calf injury, and once Dorian Williams began to get every down work, the outside linebacker position immediately improved in run defending.

But it wasn’t just Spector. Middle linebacker Terrel Bernard has been on a rough run-defending stretch since that began after the bye week against San Francisco. Bernard has shown difficulties in getting away from blocks, and those blockers drive the linebacker up the field far too often. Bernard’s first two seasons have been all about flash plays, which can help change a game, and plays that he deserves credit for making. But in the consistency department, particularly as a run defender, he has left a bit to be desired now, almost two full seasons into his career. He shows flashes of being a better run defender, but they have been too infrequent, specifically over this four-game stretch. The Bills sorely missed Milano early in the game, as he had a very good impact against the Lions before leaving the game with a groin injury.

The good news for the Bills is that Milano will likely return to the lineup for the playoffs and that they have shown a team-wide ability to turn on their run-defending when challenged. But without question, it’s the defense’s most significant weakness that each playoff team they come across will likely test.

In the first half against the Patriots, Josh Allen got away from what has made him great in 2024. (Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)

Why this is a good reminder game for Josh Allen

When you see the type of season that Allen has had this year, it’s tough to see many flaws. He’s played nearly perfect football over the last two-and-a-half months. The Bills’ opponents have found it incredibly difficult to defend Allen, which is why he is rightfully viewed as the favorite to win the league’s Most Valuable Player award for the first time in his career. With that written, Allen came into the Patriots game flat. What has helped Allen ascend to being the best quarterback in the league this season has had all to do with his processing and decision-making. Against the Patriots, specifically in the first half, Allen served up his worst processing and decision-making performance since losing to the Texans in Week 5.

Perhaps in big play mode from the last two games against the Rams and Lions, Allen ignored the very aspect of his game that has made him so difficult to defend this season — taking what the defense was giving him. His offensive line consistently afforded him time, and rather than taking the easy throws when available and staying on time, he had his eyes permanently down the field on the second and third levels looking for big plays. It led to bad decisions, poor throws and the most interception-worthy plays this season. It was a bit reminiscent of some of the quarterback’s struggles last season. The good news for Bills fans is that the funk didn’t last long.

As soon as the Bills entered the second half, the 2024 MVP-level Allen immediately returned. He was taking what the Patriots were giving, setting up deeper throws to the intermediate areas as the game went on. He even set the Patriots up well enough for a pair of deep shots in one-on-one coverage — something the Bills will want to attack every time. It’s all about finding those isolated moments to strike, and Allen has been so good at it all year long. So while he had a brief step back into 2023, that first half against the Patriots — especially since it’s so close to the playoffs — should serve as a good reminder of why trying to do too much, too soon once the game opens up can hurt the Bills in the long run of a contest.

Pure dominance by the Bills offensive line across the board

Considering I already wrote about the outstanding performance of the offensive line immediately after the game, I’ll keep this mostly brief. But upon watching the film, the Bills starting five looked like they were going up against a bunch of undersized college freshmen on Sunday. When you get to the grades from the game, you’ll see the offensive line make up five of the top six spots. That’s how good they were. Offensive tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown have made a strong case to be viewed as the top duo in the NFL this season, while second-year right guard O’Cyrus Torrence has dramatically improved his game over the last two weeks.

The Bills were dominant as run blockers. They were dominant as pass blockers. There is one metric that best sums up their day. On 34 dropbacks, Josh Allen’s average time to throw was 3.56 seconds — the highest of any quarterback in Week 16 and topping the next closest mark by 0.15 seconds. With all day to throw, the Bills offensive line allowed only four pressures the entire game. Yes, you read that right. Four. All game. So not only were they winning immediately, but they were winning the long blocks, too. The Bills have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, bar none.

Players with 15 or fewer snaps:

RB Ray Davis (14), DT Quinton Jefferson (14), CB Ja’Marcus Ingram (14), IOL Alec Anderson (11), LB Joe Andreessen (1), DE Javon Solomon (1), QB Mitchell Trubisky (0), WR Jalen Virgil (0), TE Quintin Morris (0), OT Ryan Van Demark (0), C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (0), LB Edefuan Ulofoshio (0), CB Brandon Codrington (0), S Kareem Jackson (0)

**Minimum 200 snaps

How the standards work

When the All-22 film becomes available, we’ll go through and watch every player on every play as many times as necessary to assess letter grades. It is a subjective analysis, and it’s important to note we do not know the play calls and full responsibilities. The grades stem from technique, effort and presumed liability.

The study accounts only for players who take a snap on offense or defense. Players with fewer than 15 snaps — unless they significantly impact the game — will not factor into weekly rankings. The grades range from an ‘A’ (a perfect 4.00 GPA) to ‘F’ (0.00 GPA). There is no such thing as an ‘A+’ in this grading system. Season-long grades will be tallied and documented, with a single game’s grade weighted based on how much the player was on the field in a given week.

(Top photo: Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)