Two more players from my top-50 free agent ranking have found new homes, with Christian Walker (No. 19) reportedly agreeing to a three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros and Max Kepler (No. 25) joining the Phillies on a one-year contract worth $10 million. A look at both signings below:
Christian Walker is on the older side but should have good years left in him
The Astros continue to remake their roster, taking some of the money they saved by trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs to address their first-base void by signing the best free agent at the position in Walker. He is an outstanding defender with an above-average offensive profile. It’s a completely different story than the last time they tried to sign a first baseman in his mid-30s to a three-year contract; when they did it with José Abreu, they ignored all of the signs that he was aging, while Walker looks like he’s at least got a good two years left in him before Father Time has his say.
Walker has been extremely consistent since he became a full-time player in 2019, with wRC+ figures from 119 to 122 in the past three years, and between 110 and 122 in five of the past six years, only falling short in 2021 when he hit the injured list twice with oblique injuries. He’s been worth 3.0 fWAR, 3.9 fWAR, and 3.9 fWAR over the past three years, from 2024 backward, and if he delivers the Astros another 3-WAR season this year and maybe 4-5 more over the last two years of the deal, they’ll likely consider it a good deal for them.
He’s an obvious upgrade for them at first base, where they got a .226/.291/.360 line last year, mostly from Abreu and Jon Singleton, and ended up with less than replacement-level value from the position. If Walker still has one more 2022-ish season in him, they’d be more than four wins better off than last year.
The downside with Walker is his age — he’ll be 34 in 2025, and that’s in the range when many hitters see their bat speed decline. The Astros saw it with Abreu, and they may be fearing it with Alex Bregman, who is only 31 but saw his performance against four-seamers crater in 2024. Walker’s peak year in 2022 saw him whiff just 7.4 percent of the time he faced a pitch 95 mph or harder, but with the exception of that season he’s been in the 12-15 percent, landing there again in 2024 at 13.7 percent.
Walker doesn’t look like he’s lost bat speed, and nothing in the data says he has, so I’m much more bullish on this signing than I was on the Abreu deal, even though both players were in their mid-30s at the time they inked their contracts. The end can come quickly for hitters, of course, so there’s a non-zero chance Walker shows up one February in the next three years and his bat speed is just gone, making him maybe a 1-WAR player thanks to his defense and patience, which obviously would not be such great value for a $20MM AAV. I’m willing to bet that that doesn’t happen until the last year of the contract, if at all, and to agree with the Astros that they can probably get 7-8 wins out of him over the length of the contract.
The Yankees and Mariners are both still in the market for a first baseman, and both had at least reportedly had interest in Walker. The Yankees probably should have matched this price, although they may have been unwilling to pay it and give up the draft picks required to sign Walker. (Houston will give up their second and fifth picks, wherever they land, hurting a farm system that’s already down, but they are absolutely in win-now mode and I agree with their decision to surrender those selections.)
For any team looking for a definite regular at first, it’s kind of Pete Alonso or bust at this point, and he’d be a decent fit for the Yankees as he’s a right-handed hitter who’d help balance their lineup out, but he also rejected a qualifying offer and would require the Yankees to give up draft picks to sign him. Of course, they just traded for Cody Bellinger, and could play him at first base rather than signing or trading for someone else.
The Mariners, meanwhile, don’t have a true incumbent at first, after giving about half of the at-bats there last year to Ty France (-0.2 bWAR) and splitting the rest among now-free agent Justin Turner and platoon slugger Luke Raley, who doesn’t hit lefties at all but slugged nearly .500 off RHP. They could sign Alonso as Raley’s platoon mate … no, I’m just kidding.
Either of those teams could also look to the trade market, where Cleveland has apparently been dangling the possibility of moving Josh Naylor, who broke out in 2023 and carried most of that into 2024 other than a flukishly low BABIP. He’s hit .272/.335/.471 over the past two seasons and his production has been worth a total of 4.0 bWAR/5.0 fWAR over that span, with the former number probably too low because of an awful defensive grade on him from 2024. (He was at 0 OAA, or perfectly average; I would expect him to come in slightly below average, but I don’t think he’s unplayable as his Baseball-Reference dWAR indicates.)
Naylor is left-handed, but has shown just a modest platoon split over the past two years, so he’s a fit for both teams, even the left-leaning Yankees. He’s heading into his final year of arbitration before free agency, making him a rental for whoever acquires him, which should keep the price in prospects somewhat low — he’s not as valuable as Kyle Tucker, for example, and Tucker was just traded for one elite prospect and two major leaguers who are no better than average for their relative positions. He’d be a modest upgrade for the Mariners, and a slightly larger one for the Yankees. I could see Naylor and Alonso producing similar value in 2025, so it would be a matter of whether a team would want to trade prospects to get a rental player or just spend money on a longer-term deal.
Max Kepler joins the Phillies after a down season with the Twins. (Brandon Sloter / Image Of Sport / Getty Images)
Phillies take a solid risk on bounce-back candidate Max Kepler
The Phillies signed one of the better bounce-back candidates on this winter’s free-agent market in Kepler. I like the player and the bet that his production will be worth quite a bit more than that $10 million salary. I’m a little nervous about how well he fits a Phillies lineup where so much of their offense is already coming from the left side.
Kepler’s 2023 season was worth almost 3 wins, but he hurt his knee and spent two stints on the injured list in 2024, never hitting anywhere near his established levels this past season. He made much weaker contact, and couldn’t turn on good velocity at all.
The best German-born player in MLB history, Kepler is still just 31 and should have a few more productive years left even if he hits his decline phase a little early. Given that he’s still a plus defender I don’t think his body has slowed down at all — I interpret the drop in his offensive numbers as a result of the knee problems, mostly if not entirely. If he’s a two-win player, the Phillies got a good deal.
The Phillies lineup already gets much more production from the left side than from the right. Their left-handed batters hit .270/.342/.441 last year, better than their right-handed batters (.251/.318/.417). Their two best hitters are both left-handed and if Kepler and Brandon Marsh are in left and center, respectively, that’s probably five left-handed regulars in the lineup.
Marsh has played some center for Philly, grading out at plus-3 OAA in over 1,100 innings there the past two years, and if Kepler is effectively replacing Johan Rojas, an elite defender who does zero damage at the plate, that’s probably a net win for the team. Maybe they won’t actually be “too left-handed” given the actual players involved, as Kepler, Bryce Harper, and Bryson Stott all show very slight platoon splits, but it’s at least unusual to tilt your lineup that far to the left side.
Either way, I think Kepler will massively outproduce his salary, so I like the move for the Phillies even with that one quibble about their lineup.
(Top photo of Walker: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
