How Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl is becoming a more complete player

Early in the Tuesday night game against the Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers centre Leon Draisaitl attempted a back-pass at the blue line that instantly turned into a goal against his team. As it turned out, that goal was the only one in the entire game.

It was noteworthy because Draisaitl has ironed that play (dangerous passes at both blue lines) out of his game.

That event stood out because of its recent rarity and gives us an opportunity to take note of the big man’s improvement in a key area of the game.

What’s going on? 

Draisaitl is an impact player across 200 feet, and the one concern (some wobble defensively, risky passes at the blue line are the primary culprit) appears to be fading away.

Here’s a year-over-year look at his suppression stats (shots against, goals against, expected goals against) over the past four seasons. Since it’s always an issue when having a conversation about Draisaitl, let’s run the numbers when he’s playing without Connor McDavid:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The progression is clear and breathtaking. Credit to improved linemates, more credit to the player himself. Draisaitl’s chaos game is gone and has been replaced by a fantastic centre capable of suppressing opposition while playing in the middle (and without the captain).

Last season the GA per 60 at five-on-five went supernova good, and the Oilers made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. Coincidence? No.

In recent full seasons, Draisaitl with McDavid at five-on-five delivered 30.6 SA per 60, 2.88 GA per 60 and 2.58 xGA per 60. The numbers this year (22.2 SA per 60, 1.77 GA per 60, 2.17 xGA per 60) are considerably better.

Coach Kris Knoblauch’s arrival on the scene has coincided with Draisaitl’s two best seasons in these metrics, and the five-on-five outscoring has been out of sight. Here are the totals for Draisaitl and McDavid (with and without) and the Oilers with both men on the bench over recent campaigns.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Draisaitl’s minutes have spiked in terms of goal share with and without the captain. Fans will often get upset when the two men are deployed together, but a 66 percent on-ice goal share at five-on-five is difficult to argue against.

Edmonton’s top two centres have dominated opponents in the last two seasons, together and apart. It’s a massive advantage for Knoblauch and Oilers coaches.

Scoring

In his NHL career, Draisaitl has scored 50 or more goals three times, and is the winner of the Art Ross Trophy (scoring champion), Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) and Ted Lindsay Award (league’s outstanding player as voted by NHL players).

Per 82 games, including all game states, Draisaitl is averaging 40 goals and 97 points. That’s 1.19 points per game for his career so far. His playoff points per game increases to 1.45, making him a true scoring unicorn in the postseason.

Here are his numbers over the last four seasons.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Draisaitl is a remarkably consistent scorer at five-on-five. The spike in goals per 60 came from increased shooting percentage, with his shot volume remaining steady through all four seasons.

Versus elites

One area worth looking at over the last four seasons is the performance of Draisaitl with and without McDavid when facing elite competition.

The overall numbers above tell us Draisaitl has always been a superior offensive player, but in more recent seasons he has emerged as an elite outscorer, with and without the captain.

Making him a complete player at five-on-five.

How have those numbers developed over the last four seasons?

The website PuckIQ “bins” opponents best on their quality. It allows us to parse minutes into three categories: elites, mid-level and the soft parade. Looking at Draisaitl’s last four seasons, we can see a spike in performance with and without McDavid. In the last two seasons, when Draisaitl flies solo, he’s reaching outlier heights not seen previously in his career.

The percentages in the table below are Dangerous Fenwick share, similar to expected goals with the added ability to award more weight to closer and dangerous chances. It’s an accurate depiction of what is happening on the ice.

All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ

For Draisaitl and McDavid, who routinely play more than half of the overall five-on-five minutes in a game, this kind of increased domination represents “peak Oilers” during their respective careers.

The result, hopefully, is the Stanley Cup. The numbers have never been this good for Draisaitl.

Special teams

Most of the attention paid to Draisaitl’s evaluation as a complete player correctly focuses on five-on-five play. It’s the biggest part of the game, and gives us a fairly level playing field compared to special teams.

The big man excels in both power play and penalty killing, with his passing, shot and faceoff ability all major factors in Edmonton’s considerable success.

This season has been an anomaly so far with the man advantage, but over the last three full seasons, Draisaitl has averaged 5.14 goals per 60 on the power play. That leads the NHL during this period by some margin. The second-place scorer, Dylan Guenther, is at 4.01 goals per 60 for his young career.

Draisaitl’s 9.48 points per 60 on the power play is third, behind McDavid and Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov, per Natural Stat Trick.

He averaged almost four minutes per game on the power play. That doesn’t leave much time for PK duties (43 seconds per game) but Draisaitl does take important faceoffs and is part of an extended rotation in the discipline.

Bottom line

Playing in the shadow of McDavid brings its own challenges and rewards. When talking about impact players, future awards and possible Hall of Fame inductions, his name comes after the “and” in McDavid and Draisaitl.

The NHL awards the Selke Trophy annually to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive elements of the game.

Draisaitl is famous, and has won major awards, but received no votes for any awards last year (despite 106 points in the regular season). It’s extremely unlikely he’ll win a Selke in his career, or even get a vote for the 2024-25 award, but the statistical evidence is there for consideration.

Draisaitl is a complete player. His best outscoring seasons may be on the horizon.

(Photo: Stephen R. Sylvanie / Imagn Images)