House Republicans will have zero room for error in the 119th Congress — literally.
Rep. John Duarte (R) conceded to Democrat Adam Gray in California’s 13th Congressional District Tuesday night — the final uncalled House race of the 2024 cycle — solidifying the GOP’s 220-215 majority in the lower chamber.
That slim edge is already one of the closest in history. And it is set to narrow even more — and quickly — putting Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his leadership team in a bind as they chart lofty goals for the next two years, when the GOP will have control of all levers of power in Washington.
“Do the math,” Johnson told reporters Wednesday morning. “We have nothing to spare.”
With former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) resigning and ruling out returning to Congress after his failed bid for attorney general, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) set to resign on Jan. 20 to become national security adviser, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) expected to leave the chamber to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, the GOP majority will shrink to 217-215 early next year. The first special elections are set to take place in April.
That leaves a zero-vote margin for the Republican conference on party-line votes, assuming full attendance, making delayed flights and illnesses critical to legislative business. If next year, for example, all House Democrats vote against a GOP-led measure and one Republican breaks from the party and votes with Democrats, the final tally would be 216-216 — sinking the GOP effort, since a tie loses in the lower chamber.
That reality will spell trouble for Johnson and his deputies as they look to usher through President-elect Trump’s top priorities in the first 100 days of the 119th Congress, with the slim majority making each Republican lawmaker a make-or-break vote on high-profile measures.
The Speaker is aware of the challenge he faces, but is expressing confidence in the group’s ability to work through those.
“Just like we do every day here, we’ve developed an expertise in that,” he added. “We know how to work a small majority.”
The conference’s rabble-rousers and hardline conservatives — including those in the House Freedom Caucus — have been a thorn in the side of leadership for the past two years, blocking procedural votes as a way to protest policies, torpedoing legislation on the floor that they do not support, and extracting concessions from Johnson in exchange for their support on various efforts.
Those strategies, in many instances, have been successful because of the House GOP’s current narrow majority. Republicans control 220 seats in the chamber right now, with Democrats trailing at 213, allowing the GOP conference only three defections on any party-line vote. Two seats are currently vacant.
Those on the right-flank will have an easier time disrupting the status quo next year — and some are already vowing to do so.
“If it’s morally correct, if it’s something that I really believe in,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said on CNN when asked if he is willing to hold up business in the House next year. “If it’s, you know, if we continue down this path of economic destruction, spending our great grandchildren’s money, yes, I will, and I have. And we’ll continue on that path until we regain some sanity.”
Other Republicans, however, are pumping the brakes on the idea of chaos over the next two years, contending that the conference will follow Trump’s lead on various legislative undertakings. Even those who tend to be the rabble-rousers say it will be smooth sailing with Trump at the helm.
“What we’re going to have under Trump is leadership from the Executive Branch, that is in alignment with, quite frankly, what the Freedom Caucus would want to achieve,” Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), a member of the conservative group, told The Hill. “And so I think you’re less likely to see a whole lot of, quote, unquote, bucking the system because Trump is very much in line, we’re in sync on most issues.”
But, he added, “anytime you have a small majority, any caucus or group has, at least in that moment, there’s power in numbers.”
“There were a lot of them that might have been important last time, but will vote yes if Trump tells them to,” said Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a member who frequently breaks from the party on legislation.
Democrats, for their part, see the ultra-thin margin as a potential tool they could utilize while serving in the minority — and they are strongly emphasizing attendance.
“It’s important for every member to come to work and to do their job. That’s what we’re telling our caucus,” Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said during a press conference on Wednesday.
“Their attendance is incredibly important, and the work that we do here is important, and pushing back against Republican overreach is potentially something that we have to do next year,” he continued. “And in order to do that, we’re going to need them coming” to Washington.
The first special elections to replace the GOP’s vacancies — which are in ruby-red districts — are not set to take place until April, leaving Republicans with their slimmest majority until then. Johnson said the conference would manage the edge they are dealt, and predicted they would be back to capacity in late spring.
“We’ll deal with it, with a one seat majority, just like we will when we fill those seats, three or four, whatever the final number is, we’ll get those filled by, I think, late spring, and we will proceed,” Johnson said.
While Republicans are expressing optimism about legislating in the slim majority, some minefields are ahead as the party, led by Trump, eyes an ambitious agenda for the 119th Congress — headlined by tax reform.
Several provisions of the 2017 tax package Trump signed into law — dubbed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) — are set to expire at the end of 2025, and GOP lawmakers want to extend many of the popular programs.
Johnson has said he wants to tackle tax reform in the first 100 days using budget reconciliation, a wonky, fast-track process parties use when they have full control in Washington. But that will require unanimity from House Republicans and the plan is already facing roadblocks.
A handful of lawmakers from higher-tax blue states, including New York and California, are once again pushing for the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to be lifted or increased, vowing to oppose any legislation that does not answer that demand.
If enough Republicans on the SALT Caucus join that effort, the tax package could falter — a dynamic that the group is well aware of.
“I’ve been very clear: I won’t support a tax bill that does not lift the cap on SALT,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) told The Hill last week. “Given the margins in the House, this is something that there’s gonna have to be a good-faith negotiation on.”
Despite the politically diverse caucus, Republicans are barreling into the new year with high hopes of ticking items off their lengthy to-do list in a drama-free fashion, especially with Trump leading the way.
“It’s impossible to have a slimmer majority, which creates serious challenges,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), a top appropriator. “But the reason I’m optimistic is what we have now is Trump as president. And I think once we have an agreement as to how to move forward… folks who are like, for example, who would consider voting against the rule, are going to have to think twice because we have Trump in the White House.”
Emily Brooks contributed.
