This year’s Anaheim Ducks have so far been an interesting study.
They sit at 8-9-3 through the first quarter of the schedule, better than they were last season at this point. But they hadn’t won consecutive games until last week’s three-game win streak, and while they have all sorts of capability to improve, it feels like they could stay on a .500 treadmill or head into a tailspin at any time.
The Ducks are allowing more than half a goal less on average than last season, but many of their players have poorer defensive metrics, and players with better advanced analytics have not produced at the level they have in the past. Some of their more productive performers of late have metrics that suggest they’re not effective even though they’re impacting the scoreboard. As a team, they’re far more disciplined and have drawn more penalties than they’ve taken but they are still far below average in special teams play.
Year 2 of Greg Cronin behind the bench is supposed to be about the Ducks playing games deep into the season that carry meaning in the standings. It’s also about the many youthful parts of the roster growing into leading players, not just on the team but within the league. Well, they’re not in a playoff position as American Thanksgiving approaches this week. But they’ve also been playing better hockey, even though a few significant pieces still aren’t firing.
“When you have that much youth, you’re trying to measure growth and it’s on a game-to-game — in our case, it’s a practice-to-practice thing,” Cronin said. “We video practice and watch it. There’s a little bit of a mystery in how quickly they’ll grow, where the older guys have already passed through that development so you can kind of get an immediate response from them.
“When you watch the optics of it, it looks like we’re starting to figure things out in terms of how to play as a group, how to play connected. But we continually have to stay on top of them about the habits that create that connection. The only way you really know is you do it in the games.”
What do you make of the Ducks one quarter in? Are they improving at all under Cronin? Is the best yet to come for them or is there peril ahead? Let’s look at the roster and take stock of the performances thus far. We won’t include Sam Colangelo as he just got called up following a strong start at AHL San Diego, as well as Urho Vaakanainen who’s played in only five games and Tristan Luneau who’s spending time in the minors after his six NHL games showed he needed more work on his defensive game.
Stock way up
Lukáš Dostál, Olen Zellweger, Drew Helleson, Brett Leason
There is one big reason why the Ducks have lowered their goals against even though they’ve got a 31st-ranked penalty kill and can still allow a lot of shots on goal. Though he’s had the bulk of the action, Dostál is third in the league in total saves (451) despite making fewer starts (13) than 15 other goalies and is stopping pucks at a .922 clip. MoneyPuck lists him with an NHL-leading 13.2 goals saved above expected. His 34-save effort to beat Dallas stopped a five-start winless stretch after a tremendous October.
Zellweger, 21, has become the Ducks’ go-to on the blue line for generating offense at even strength while quarterbacking their power play. While he isn’t killing penalties, the second-year defender has six points in his last five games and leads the corps with four goals and 10 points. There have been some occasions on which he’s been victimized when outmuscled for position, but the positives have far outweighed the negatives.
Helleson, 23, was called up on Nov. 13 and has delivered in his five games, assisting on two goals in his season debut with the Ducks, scoring in Friday’s overtime loss to Buffalo and registering strong defensive metrics in his small sample. Leason has been a different player since he was scratched in five of six contests. All but one of his eight points have come in the last seven games while playing a bottom-six role. He’s used the length of his 6-foot-5 frame to make plays down low in the offensive zone.
Lukáš Dostál ranks third in the league with 451 saves and has a fourth-ranked .922 save percentage. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)
Stock up
John Gibson, Leo Carlsson, Brock McGinn, Brian Dumoulin, Ross Johnston
Since being activated on Nov. 9, Gibson has made four starts and gone 3-0-1 with a 2.46 goals-against average and .915 save percentage. It will be interesting to see if his numbers hold up or plummet downward as they have in prior seasons, but the difference now is he’s currently trading off starts with Dostál. Another positive is Gibson is facing 28.8 shots on goal per 60 minutes compared to 31.5 last season.
That Carlsson has played in all 20 games is an upgrade over his rookie year in which injuries and load management caused him to miss 27 games. He’s on pace for 24 goals, but better chemistry with a linemate who can finish plays could probably boost his point total throughout the season. (We’ll see if there are any aftereffects from the hit by Seattle’s Tye Kartye that knocked him out of Monday’s loss.) He’s been a minus player just three times.
The injury bug has unfortunately bitten McGinn again after a season in which back troubles limited him to only 24 games. The 30-year-old was playing his best hockey since coming to Anaheim from Pittsburgh at the 2023 trade deadline. Once a longtime Penguin, Dumoulin has brought veteran savvy and steady, calm play on the Ducks’ back end. Johnston has been in the lineup all November and has been quite useful in the eight or nine minutes he often plays, already matching his offensive output in 68 games last season.
Stock flat
Cutter Gauthier, Alex Killorn, Jackson LaCombe, Ryan Strome, Troy Terry, Isac Lundestrom, Jansen Harkins
Gauthier, 20, is still learning the challenge of playing against NHL competition all the time. He broke through with goals in back-to-back games after not scoring in his first 15 and he’s already among the Ducks’ best at driving play and generating shots. Killorn’s three goals and eight points are underwhelming but a deeper look courtesy of Evolving Hockey shows a team-best 51.82 Corsi For Percentage in five-on-five play and a strong 2.38 expected goals against per 60. The offense isn’t there but he’s not hurting the Ducks defensively.
LaCombe, 23, is another youngster who’s been up and down. His defensive metrics are a bit worse than last season, but the eye test shows a more confident player who’s ironed out some of the big swings in his play. Strome is what he’s been — a complementary forward who doesn’t drive a line but plays off skilled teammates. He’d have better numbers if he buried a few more of his grade-A chances.
Terry had two assists Monday to snap a three-game point drought, but it was also his first multi-point outing. He’s leading the Ducks in scoring and had an eight-game point streak early on but a 24-goal, 56-point pace reflects the team’s overall offensive shortcomings. Lundestrom still plays solid defense, and his 46.5 percent faceoff win rate is among the best on a club that is bad on the dot. Harkins earned a call-up after leading San Diego in scoring. He has gotten a chance with Mason McTavish out and has an assist in seven games.
Stock down
Trevor Zegras, Radko Gudas, Frank Vatrano, Pavel Mintyukov
This is a section of players who are capable of much more. With just eight points, Zegras might be a candidate for the “way down” category but he’s perked up lately after a horrific offensive start. He’s been a more responsible player and better at game management but has all that focus helped his overall game or hurt what he does best? Gudas wasn’t as effective in the second half of last season and that’s carried over as he’s been on the ice for 13 five-on-five goals against and his metrics have dropped across the board.
Expecting Vatrano to have the same blazing start and to duplicate his 37 goals from 2023-24 wasn’t realistic, but just three goals at the quarter point is also unexpected. He’s bound to improve on his 4.9 shooting percentage. His backchecking and penalty killing have been strong. While Zellweger has seized a big role on defense, Mintyukov hasn’t taken that big step forward in his second season. Less power-play time will depress the offensive numbers. He’s had several minus evenings but is also blocking a lot more shots.
Stock way down
Mason McTavish, Cam Fowler, Robby Fabbri
It’s been a rough start for McTavish, who got back in the lineup Monday after a six-game absence due to injury. The 21-year-old’s game started to come around a bit right before he got hurt but his first goal didn’t come until Nov. 3. He’s still getting enough ice time to make a difference, but he’s also been dropped to a fourth-line role in even-strength play. Just three five-on-five points, a very poor 38.69 CF% and a ragged 3.78 xGA/60 is rough stuff.
The subject of trade speculation before the season, Fowler has been sidelined for eight games due to an upper-body injury. His play wasn’t great before that. Natural Stat Trick has the 32-year-old on the ice for 65 high-danger chances against and 39 generated by the Ducks. He has a plus-1 rating but has brought little offense and an ugly 4.40 xGA/60. Fabbri brought a strong work ethic before knee surgery put him out for six weeks, but the versatile forward also had bad advanced metrics across the board.
(Top photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
