College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Did ACC, Big 12 miss best chances to claim at-large bids?

Miami quarterback Cam Ward had a little under two minutes to rally his Hurricanes, produce a Heisman moment and keep his team’s record unblemished.

Instead, Georgia Tech sacked him, he fumbled and the Yellow Jackets pounced on the ball to put Miami’s dream of its first undefeated season since 2001 on ice.

The ACC might have lost an at-large bid in the Playoff in the process.

In the Big 12, Iowa State went from 7-0 to 7-2 in successive weeks, hitting the eject button after controlling the league race for the first half of the season. Unbeaten BYU and two-loss Colorado are alone in first and second place.

Meanwhile, over in the SEC, Lane Kiffin earned the biggest win of his career by rocking Georgia in the rain, 28-10. Ole Miss staved off Playoff elimination, and both two-loss teams are in the thick of the race for at-large bids.

In the years-long lead-up to the first 12-team Playoff, the SEC and Big Ten expressed worry that the selection committee might not respect their schedules — far more difficult than those in the Big 12 and ACC, they argued — enough to give them the Playoff spots they believe they deserved at season’s end.

But as the season nears crunch time, the scoreboard is this:

The SEC has six teams with very real chances for at-large bids, regardless of how the title race shakes out. The Big Ten has four teams that can feel confident about their at-large chances. The ACC? It now has one, with another in SMU that might have an outside chance. The Big 12? BYU stands alone.

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It doesn’t have anything to do with weighing schedule strength or inflating — artificially or otherwise — the value of Big Ten and SEC membership in the super conference era. The Big Ten and SEC’s top teams keep winning games and staying in the hunt. The Big 12 and ACC’s top teams keep losing.

Last week, Clemson played its way out of the Playoff hunt by losing at home to Louisville by double digits. Miami might still earn an at-large bid, but before Saturday it was a slam dunk regardless of what happened in the ACC title game. If BYU wins the Big 12, the league has zero chance of earning an at-large bid.

If SMU or Miami wins the ACC, when the committee weighs the merits of the other, assuming it’s the loser in the title game, Miami may be 11-2 with one Top-25 win, having needed comebacks to beat Duke, Cal and Virginia Tech. SMU, which would also likely be 11-2, may also count Louisville as its lone Top-25 win now that Pitt’s second loss on Saturday at home to Virginia puts it in danger of falling out of the Top 25 entirely.

If the Playoff ends up being the five highest-ranked conference champions (including the Group of 5 team) and seven at-large teams from the Big Ten and SEC (and perhaps Notre Dame), there will be plenty of complaining. But the ACC and Big 12 can’t blame the committee. They can blame only themselves.

Each week, Bubble Watch will examine who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle leading up to the first 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The five highest-ranked conference champions will get an automatic Playoff berth. Find Austin Mock’s model’s bracket projections here.

ACC

Pitt went from undefeated to all the way out of Bubble Watch in two weeks after losing at home to Virginia.

Clemson’s two losses are borderline disqualifying for an at-large bid, but the Tigers are still in the thick of ACC title race, especially after Miami’s loss. There’s a world in which the Hurricanes don’t qualify for the ACC title game at 11-1, but the league’s tiebreakers are still a moving target, especially with lots of football still to be played and upsets seemingly lurking around every corner.

SMU isn’t as explosive or as scary as Miami, but looks like the most balanced team in the conference. That’s how it’s the last team in the league without a conference loss, and its lone loss came by three against BYU, the current Big 12 title favorite and one of four remaining undefeated teams.

Big Ten

Iowa’s Friday-night loss to UCLA makes it official: There are only four Big Ten teams with any chance to crack the Playoff field. But there are big games ahead and moving parts that will influence tiebreakers to decide who goes to Indianapolis.

Indiana was already disrespected in the initial rankings by the committee, leaving it right on the line between definitely and probably in. But the Hoosiers are stuck in a brutal scenario: If they lose to Ohio State, they’ll have a resume with zero Top 25 wins and a strength of schedule well below any of the contenders. Don’t be surprised if a one-loss IU gets squeezed out of the field for a two-loss SEC team if the league keeps fielding Playoff contenders.

There are five auto-bids. There are six SEC teams with Playoff-caliber resumes and four Big Ten teams still competing for seven remaining at-large spots. There will be losses ahead for those teams as they meet, but it’s likely some team is landing on the wrong side of the bubble, and nobody is closer than Indiana, even if there’s a reasonable case for it to be ahead of Penn State. It’s unlikely anything other than a win over the Buckeyes will put the Hoosiers ahead of the Nittany Lions in the committee’s eyes.

Big 12

So much for Farmageddon between Kansas State and Iowa State being the mammoth season-ending showdown. If the standings hold, it’ll be BYU and Colorado playing for the Big 12 title.

Iowa State’s ugly loss to Kansas at Arrowhead officially cleared the way for Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes, who rallied from an early 13-point deficit to beat Texas Tech and now need to beat Utah (1-5 in Big 12 play), Kansas (2-4) on the road and Oklahoma State (0-7).

At that point, 60 minutes with BYU would be all that’s standing between the Buffs and the Playoff. I can’t believe it, either.

BYU needed a miracle (and according to Utah AD Mark Harlan, poor officiating) to rally for a win in the first Holy War in Big 12 history, but the Cougars have survived wild finishes in two of the past three weeks now and are feeling a whole lot like TCU’s 2022 team that reached the national title game.

SEC

The SEC’s logjam at the top is bad news for people hoping for a clear picture of who can get to Atlanta, but very good news for the league’s Playoff outlook. Tennessee, Texas A&M and Texas are all tied with one loss but five more teams are hanging around with two losses. All eight teams were in the CFP’s first rankings, and Missouri’s miraculous win over Oklahoma assures that all eight will be staying in the Top 25.

The SEC is going to be well-represented in the field, but the most interesting question is how the committee would treat a two-loss SEC team that reaches the SEC title game and suffers a third loss in a game most other at-large candidates didn’t have to play.

Ole Miss kept its Playoff hopes alive and only needs to survive a trip to Florida and the Egg Bowl to have a stellar shot of cracking the field. The only issue is the win over Georgia will be its only Top 25 win. If you were hoping for a Playoff without Alabama, the Tide’s lopsided win in Death Valley may leave many disappointed. Only Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn stand between Alabama and a bid … unless it reaches Atlanta and suffers a third loss.

Does anyone think the committee would leave out an SEC runner-up Alabama?

Group of 5

Boise’s march to the bracket continued with a nervy home win over Nevada, including 209 yards and three scores from Ashton Jeanty.

Week 13 will reveal whether the conversation around Army and the Playoff without a Boise upset is real or not. The Black Knights will take on Notre Dame on Nov. 23 at Yankee Stadium and if they win, the committee will face a steady drum beat of preemptive complaints about leaving out Army if it finishes 13-0 with the AAC title in hand.

With a loss, Army could still be a Boise upset away from sneaking into the field. No other Group of 5 team is ranked, and after UNLV’s close call at Hawaii and Tulane beating down Temple, it’s unlikely that changes this week.

Others

The Irish’s game against Florida State was supposed to be a chance for a resume bullet point. Instead, they sent the Seminoles to 1-9 with a 49-point win. Oof. The Irish didn’t get a lot of respect from the committee and likely need to beat Virginia, Army and USC — not the easiest stretch of games — to make the field.