The Heisman Trophy betting market is typically fluid, but this season is shaping up to be a very close race throughout. After Week 10’s games, Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Travis Hunter are co-favorites to win the Heisman. Both have +200 odds on BetMGM.
Ward led Miami to its third comeback from a double-digit deficit this season on Saturday. This past week, it was Duke who appeared to have the Hurricanes on the ropes. The Blue Devils led 28-17 in the third quarter, but then Ward and Miami woke up. Miami finished with a 53-31 win, and Ward racked up 400 yards and five passing touchdowns.
Miami’s offense is awesome. The Hurricanes lead the nation in points per game (47.4) and total yards per game (556.9). Ward leads the country in passing touchdowns (29) and is second in passing yards (3,146). Miami’s defense is a concern as far as the Hurricanes’ national title hopes. The Hurricanes have allowed more than 30 points in four of their five ACC games. While that may hamper Miami in the College Football Playoff, as long as Ward keeps putting up massive numbers, he is likely headed to New York as a Heisman finalist.
Hunter’s path to the award is unique. The two-way star won’t have the pure production of Ward or someone like Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. Hunter is only 17th in the country in receiving yards (757) and has two interceptions and seven pass deflections on defense. It’s hard to question Hunter’s talent and how cool it is to see a player make an impact on both sides of the ball. However, Hunter isn’t putting up monster numbers on either side, and Colorado is barely inside the top 25.
Coach Saban talked to Travis Hunter about how he approaches practice as a two-way player 😤 pic.twitter.com/Nx2IBepnua
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) November 2, 2024
Hunter is an elite prospect for the NFL Draft, but his Heisman campaign is incredibly nontraditional. He did put in the campaign work during Colorado’s bye week, appearing on both ESPN’s “College Gameday” and FOX’s “Big Noon Kickoff” before the Ohio State–Penn State game on Saturday.
3 Heismans???? 👀@markingramII & @MattLeinartQB showin’ @TravisHunterJr how it’s done 😏😮💨 pic.twitter.com/48TI1yNF3p
— Big Noon Kickoff (@BNKonFOX) November 2, 2024
After Hunter and Ward, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel is next in the odds (+300). Gabriel was the favorite last week, but apparently a two-touchdown game and a 21-point win at Michigan wasn’t good enough to keep that spot. Gabriel was 22-of-34 for 294 yards, and Oregon remains the No. 1 team in the polls.
Gabriel is sixth in the country in passing yards (2,665) and remains in the race because he is the quarterback of the top-ranked team. Oregon’s closing schedule (vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington) won’t give Gabriel another marquee game to improve his stock before the Big Ten title game. He could surge with a big performance and win in Indianapolis, potentially in a rematch with Ohio State.
The last main contender is Jeanty, who has +500 odds after being favored a couple weeks ago. Jeanty ran for 149 yards and two touchdowns last week against San Diego State and his odds still got longer. That shows how high the bar is for a running back from Boise State to win the Heisman. Jeanty averaged 4.8 yards per carry, but that’s not the otherworldly level he was performing at in the first half of the season.
In each of his first six games, Jeanty had averaged at least seven yards per carry. He has come up shy of five yards per carry in each of the last two games. Good, or even very good, is not going to be enough for Jeanty to win this award. The remaining Boise schedule (vs. Nevada, at San José State, at Wyoming, vs. Oregon State) should give Jeanty opportunities to rack up massive numbers, but it has become tougher as teams have loaded the box even more in an effort to limit him.
If Jeanty goes well over 2,000 rushing yards (he has 1,525 through eight games) and Boise State makes the CFP, both of which look very realistic, Jeanty will be a finalist. However, he may be relying on other players to be unimpressive down the stretch to win the award.
After the top four, the odds drop off. Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart is +2000. He has the numbers (he leads the country with 3,210 passing yards), but Ole Miss already has two losses and has faded a bit from the CFP conversation. If the Rebels beat Georgia this weekend, he may join the top group of contenders.
Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke is +2500 and has been slowly, quietly moving up the odds. He missed one game due to injury, but the Hoosiers are undefeated and unchallenged so far. Rourke would have to have a massive game at Ohio State on November 23, and likely a shocking win, to have a real Heisman case, but it’s possible.
2024 Heisman Trophy odds
(Photo of Cam Ward: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
