The first significant deadline of the MLB offseason came and went Monday evening. Thirteen free agents, from Juan Soto to Nick Martinez, now have qualifying offers in hand.
The qualifying offer exists as a competitive balance measure by which clubs can receive compensatory draft picks if a departing free agent declines their one-year offer — valued this year at $21.05 million, the mean salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the sport.
Free agents are ineligible for a qualifying offer if they’ve received one before, or if they were not on the same roster all season. If a free agent rejects the qualifying offer, he remains a free agent, and the club that eventually signs him will lose at least one draft pick. This can weaken the offers some mid-tier free agents receive.
Only 13 of the 131 players ever to receive a qualifying offer have accepted it. But it would not be surprising to see more than one sign this year. Here’s a primer on all 13 players who received a qualifying offer Monday, as confirmed with a source briefed on the list.
Juan Soto, New York Yankees
Soto will be the most sought-after free agent this winter, and he’ll almost surely land some kind of record contract. He’ll decline the qualifying offer. — Brendan Kuty
Corbin Burnes, Baltimore
At the top of the market, this sort of thing is a formality. And Corbin Burnes is atop the pitching market after putting up the third-most innings in the last three seasons, with top-10-like production. — Eno Sarris
Alex Bregman, Houston
Bregman will decline the Astros’ qualifying offer, but it does not preclude Houston from pursuing a reunion with its homegrown third baseman. The Astros’ lack of any internal options to replace him — coupled with a thin market of free-agent position players behind Bregman — may increase Houston’s intensity to give the sort of contract it rarely does and lock up Bregman for the next six or seven seasons. — Chandler Rome
Max Fried, Atlanta
Max Fried could be seeking a five-year deal. (Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
Fried is expected to command a contract of at least five years with an AAV closer to $30 million than $25 million. The Braves will make at least a cursory effort to re-sign him, but whether they’ll get into a bidding war is unclear. If recent past is prologue — see: Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson – the fact that Atlanta didn’t sign Fried to an extension before reaching free agency doesn’t bode well for the likelihood that he stays. — David O’Brien
Willy Adames, Milwaukee
While not nearly as young as the just-turned-26 Soto, Adames will be one of the youngest and most coveted free agents on the market as he enters his age-29 season. The qualifying offer should not suppress interest from contenders. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projects him to get a six year, $150 million contract, and Keith Law ranks him as the No. 2 free agent, behind only Soto. This is a thin class of free-agent shortstops, with only Ha-Seong Kim (rehabbing a shoulder injury), coming close to Adames’ projected production in the coming years. Adames had a .794 OPS and 32 homers for the Brewers this season. Defensive metrics have loved him in the past, though he graded out as average at shortstop this season. — Stephen J. Nesbitt
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
By his standards, Alonso had somewhat of a down year, but still hit 34 home runs with a 123 OPS+. There’s virtually no expectation of him accepting a qualifying offer since he has been one of the league’s best right-handed power hitters since debuting in 2019. Also, he hired agent Scott Boras ahead of his walk year; he is looking to land a substantial multiyear deal. — Will Sammon
Anthony Santander, Baltimore
This situation will be fascinating to watch. He’s a good-not-great free agent (16th per Keith Law) who is coming off a career offensive year but offers little (if any) defensive value. At 30 years old, with that profile, he might be looking at three-plus years around the $20 million mark annually — so Baltimore should be happy to have him back on the qualifying offer. For other teams, the math gets a little tougher now with the draft pick compensation attached. They may want to reduce the money or the years to reflect the risk they’re taking on.
Santander could be frustrated in this situation, wondering what more he has to do — but teams can’t offer the qualifying offer to the same player twice, so he may take the one-year guarantee and get back on the market with no draft pick compensation tied to his name. Either way, he’s just the kind of mid-level free agent whose market gets seriously affected by the qualifying offer. — Eno Sarris
Teoscar Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers
It registered as a slight surprise last winter when the Seattle Mariners didn’t give Hernández a qualifying offer. One year, 33 home runs and a World Series later, the Dodgers did not hesitate to give it to him instead. This was a no-brainer, and it will likely be a no-brainer for Hernández and his camp to turn it down. The outfielder has been public about his desire to remain a Dodger, but was just as vocal about seeking a multi-year deal last winter before taking a one-year, $23.5 million deal with deferred money that offseason. Expect the Dodgers and Hernández to keep talking beyond the window.
On the flip side, there might not be a player who improved their offseason stock more this October than Walker Buehler, who ended the postseason with a stretch of 13 consecutive scoreless innings including six scoreless over the course of the World Series against the New York Yankees, and did not receive a qualifying offer. Buehler repeatedly eschewed any talk of his looming free agency this summer as he struggled with a 5.38 ERA in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, but he was at his best to end the season and will make some dollars as a result. It made it at least a slight surprise that the Dodgers did not extend him a qualifying offer — a one-year, $21.05 million deal would have made sense for both sides as Buehler looked to continue to reestablish his value. But while the two sides are expected to have mutual interest, this puts Buehler on the market with his stock trending up and no draft pick attached. — Fabian Ardaya
Nick Pivetta, Boston
Nick Pivetta could seek a multi-year deal outside of Boston. (Stephen Brashear / USA TODAY)
It was a bit of a surprise move that the Red Sox extended a qualifying offer to Pivetta. The right-hander who turns 32 in February is coming off one of his best years as a starter, posting a 4.14 ERA in 27 games, 26 starts, with a 6 percent walk rate and 28.9 percent strikeout rate. Pivetta has been a durable pitcher over the last five years in Boston with a 4.29 ERA in 121 games, 107 starts, but given the Red Sox’s needs, it seemed as though they might allocate the $21 million elsewhere. Pivetta may decline and try to sign a longer deal elsewhere, especially coming off a solid season. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projects him to land a three-year, $48 million deal. — Jen McCaffrey
Christian Walker, Arizona
The NL Gold Glove Award winner at first base each of the last three seasons will almost certainly decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal this offseason. Walker is the best defensive first baseman in baseball with 30-homer power at the plate. He’ll also be 34 years old by the start of next season. He could very capably surpass the $50 million threshold — in which case the Diamondbacks get a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A — but it also wouldn’t be surprising if his age affects his market value a bit. — Noah Furtado
Sean Manaea, New York Mets
Manaea, 32, had the best season of his career in 2024, logging a career high in innings (181 2/3) while posting a 3.47 ERA. Though he loved his time playing in New York, it would be downright shocking if he accepted a qualifying offer. It’s likely that his agent Scott Boras is looking at Manaea as at least a No. 2-type starting pitcher in this market. That should mean a deal in the three-to-four-year range. — Will Sammon
Luis Severino, New York Mets
Unlike Alonso and Manaea, Severino, 30, is the only Mets player on this list who could consider accepting the qualifying offer. He signed a one-year, $13 million deal with New York last offseason and produced a 3.91 ERA in 31 starts.
The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected that Severino would earn three years and $50 million on the open market, an average annual value of $16.6 million. But if he accepts, he could make 40 percent of that guarantee in 2025 and then return to the open market again next winter. — Rustin Dodd
Nick Martinez, Cincinnati
Martinez signed a two-year deal last off-season with the Reds with an opt-out after the first year. He made $14 million in 2024 and was scheduled to make $12 million in 2025 if he didn’t opt out. Martinez, 34, started the season in the rotation due to the team’s injuries, but spent most of the year in the bullpen, where he had a 1.86 ERA over 53 1/3 innings, but returned to the rotation for the final two months of the season. His second stint in the rotation went much better than the first, going 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in 11 starts and was named the National League Pitcher of the Month for September, where he went 4-1 with a 0.83 ERA. In his lone loss over that stretch, he allowed just one run in the team’s only complete game of the season.
Both Martinez and the Reds said they had an interest in a reunion if he opted out (which was obvious he would by the end of the season) and the Reds’ qualifying offer is a sign from their side that they’d like him back. For Martinez, the qualifying offer would be a significant increase over what he’d have made had he not opted out and Michael Wacha’s contract with the Royals could be a preview of where his value may lie. Wacha signed a three-year deal worth $51 million with an opt-out after two. In the first two guaranteed years of the contract, Wacha is making $18 million. Does Martinez expect to make more than that? It may come down to the one-year payout versus the promise of a multi-year deal. Having draft-pick compensation attached to his signing could discourage other teams and cause Martinez to accept it rather than gamble on the open market.
If Martinez accepts, the Reds can cross off one of their top items on their offseason wishlist: veteran starter. Unlike a season ago when Martinez was in a spring training battle to make the rotation, a return would see him in the rotation along with Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and likely Rhett Lowder. — C. Trent Rosecrans
(Top photo of Bregman: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
