Welcome. We are back.
The 2024-25 NBA regular season is finally here after months of inaction. We finally have a place to argue about X’s and O’s, shot selection and parse through player and coachspeak.
Ahead of my second season as a regional reporter — covering the Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs — I’ve decided to share everything that’s been on my mind ahead of the new campaign. Each of these three organizations is set on progress, with the Grizzlies and Rockets in particular looking to the postseason. I think the Spurs are at least another year away from those conversations.
Still, this is going to be an entertaining, competitive season. In Houston, Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün have been cemented as franchise cornerstones, signing extensions and signaling an intent to compete. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are healthy, ready to put Memphis back on the map with some help along the way. And in San Antonio, Victor Wembanyama has the NBA world at his fingertips, fresh off an admirable Olympics run and ready to take another leap in his game.
I am looking forward to a great year and I hope the same goes for all of you. Let me know in the comments anything you would like me to tackle this coming season. Now, on to the notes.
• If Ime Udoka wants to take the Rockets — who finished the 2023-24 regular season ranked seventh in defensive rating (according to Cleaning the Glass) — to greater heights, the addition of a healthy Steven Adams should prove vital. Somehow, his presence might be underrated.
Houston might not have the flashiest additions over the last few years — Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and now Adams — but there’s a reason why Udoka does things, especially defensively. The Rockets want their experienced players to not only lead by example, as seen in the accountability and professionalism VanVleet shows on the floor, but in the way he wants his veterans to be instructors. Now, Houston has a trifecta of teaching assistants in Adams, Brooks and VanVleet.
On Tuesday, as reporters huddled against the south wall waiting to speak to Udoka, Green and Şengün, my attention drifted toward the opposite end of the floor. Adams was working with Jack McVeigh and Jock Landale, who were moving their arms and bodies to show proper positioning. Adams was also the loudest and most vocal participant in the Rockets’ “weak” pick-and-roll defensive drill, the last bit of work before closing the practice.
The purpose of this drill is to keep action away from the “strong” side of the floor, forcing the ball to the area where there is less congestion. Historically, Adams has been one of the better defensive centers and still can move laterally and protect the rim, even after a long injury layoff.
On Wednesday, the Rockets will open their regular season at home against the Charlotte Hornets and LaMelo Ball. Ball is one of the most adept ballhandlers around, ranking in the 80th percentile among pick-and-roll scoring 0.976 points per possession, which consists of nearly half of his offensive package. Ball is known to attack high screens with fluidity, looking to create quick open shots for the shooters on the perimeter.
“Weak! Weak! Keep ’em weak!” Adams yelled as he took part in the drill, with his teammates watching.
Şengün is in for a productive defensive season and as much credit as Udoka will receive for his development, I think Adams should get credit as well.
• I’m less as about predictions as some other folks tend to be — although the Rockets have a decent shot at winning 10 of their first 14 games. My curiosity is centered around Udoka’s lineup combinations. Last season, he leaned on his starters more than most coaches and it produced mixed results. According to NBA.com, there’s nearly a 600-minute difference between the two most used lineups, but the VanVleet/Green/Brooks/Jabari Smith Jr./Şengün group only had a plus-0.4 net rating. That’s not a playoff team, not in the Western Conference at least.
So how does Udoka diversify? Being more comfortable with experimenting is a good place to start. For example, in the second half of games last season, the core of VanVleet, Green and Şengün — flanked by Smith and Cam Whitmore — had a plus-21 in 25 minutes of action. Small sample size, but it’s clear something about that combination works. More in-game adjustments would do them a world of good. Maybe surround Şengün with four athletes for a three-minute stint? There are endless possibilities.
• Last week, VanVleet spoke about him deferring more, which raises an interesting question: What exactly does that look like? Over the last few seasons, VanVleet’s usage has hovered around 26 percent, but his first season in Houston saw him reach new playmaking heights, with his 1.36 assist-t0-usage ratio the highest in his nine-year career by a considerable margin. VanVleet’s usage dropped to 23.0 percent last season, and that figure might drop even more, especially if Udoka develops more trust in Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson — not to mention Şengün’s rapid ascension into stardom.
• Whatever the weaning process looks like, it need not be sudden. Sheppard’s preseason was decent — I tend to not lean too much into percentages in exhibition games — but from a process standpoint, the rookie is still, well, a rookie. It’s not going to be an immediate transition. Nor is there a rush to heap too much responsibility on his shoulders, especially with as many capable ballhandlers as the Rockets possess.
• Jaren Jackson Jr. won’t be available for the Grizzlies’ season opener, but I’m buying all the Santi Aldama stock I can. Again, you have to take preseason stats with a grain of salt, but Aldama’s floor spacing is hard to ignore. The fourth-year big shot 52.4 percent from deep on over five attempts per game. It’s less about his proficiency and more about how it factors into head coach Taylor Jenkins’ plans to push the pace. Aldama improved as a rebounder last season and if he’s able to function as a quick release valve for Morant and Bane, Memphis’ half-court efficiency should improve.
• Scotty Pippen Jr. was rewarded for his consistency over the last few months with a multiyear deal, but when it comes to what Memphis needs from a reserve playmaker, more respect needs to be put on Yuki Kawamura’s name. What he lacks in size and physicality, he makes up for in IQ and speed. Kawamura finished second in assists (4.2) to Morant (4.5) and is more risk-averse than Pippen Jr., averaging half as many turnovers as his teammate. I expect a stint or two with the Hustle, the Grizzlies’ G League affiliate, but Kawamura understands NBA spacing and should be given an opportunity at some point.
• Trivia time. Did you know that Malaki Branham led the Spurs in preseason field goal attempts (12.8)? No, you did not. Nobody knew that.
On a more serious note, Branham’s aggressive display (his efficiency is a discussion for another day) brings San Antonio’s depth into question. Let’s assume Chris Paul, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Jeremy Sochan and Wembanyama are the opening night starters. Devin Vassell will return at some point early in the year and Keldon Johnson looks renewed. Tre Jones and rookie Stephon Castle will command the bulk of ballhandling duties in the second unit. Either Zach Collins or Sandro Mamukelashvili will handle reserve center minutes (I’m leaning toward the latter.). I’ve named 10 players already without even getting to Branham — or Blake Wesley.
That’s a lot of players vying for minutes. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich has a good problem, but Branham is in an intriguing position.
• After the Spurs’ final preseason game, a 129-107 loss to the Rockets, Popovich discussed the prospect of Wembanyama’s rhythm and conditioning, admitting it might take time for his body to recalibrate after a long year of basketball. When coaches speak like that, it’s typically giving context to future performances if Wembanyama struggles offensively out of the gate.
But if his shots aren’t falling at the rate he expects, there’s a jumbo playmaker version of Wemby who is a terror. I saw it on display at the Olympics, but deploying Wembanyama as a primary or even secondary ballhandler opens up an entire system for the Spurs offensively, especially adding quality floor spacers like Barnes and Paul. San Antonio should have a much easier time this season constructing in-game lineups centered around the IQ of Paul and Wembanyama.
(Photo of Spurs’ Tre Jones and Fred VanVleet of the Rockets: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
