Illinois is turning back the clock in 2024, starting 5-1 with two wins against the AP Top 25 for the first time since 1990. Their lone loss was 21-7 against now-No. 3 Penn State, but they will play home underdogs when Michigan comes to Champaign-Urbana.
After a heart-pounding overtime win against a one-win Purdue team, the Illini defense must return to form in a hurry if they hope to beat the Wolverines for the first time since 2009. Prior to giving up 49 to the Boilermakers, Illinois had allowed just 14.2 points per game. They have been punished on the ground lately and given Michigan’s run-first, second, and always offense, the Illini front seven won’t be getting a breather.
Kalel Mullings leads the Wolverines’ ground game, and his rushing numbers would be among the nation’s best if he weren’t ceding carries to Donovan Edwards and quarterback Alex Orji. The three form a punishing rotation with a constant cycle of fresh legs to offset a toothless passing attack.
That one-dimensional approach would be a bigger flaw for Michigan were it not for their elite ability to take the run away on defense. Third in the nation against the rush, the Wolverines succeed by shortening the game for opponents. Illinois doesn’t have much in the way of a run game, but Michigan’s Swiss cheese pass defense is vulnerable enough to allow quarterback Luke Altmyer to do damage. The junior has been great with ball security and proved last week he can hang in a shootout, but he’ll need a season-best performance to get Illinois close to a cover. All told, the 42-point over/under seems a bit high given the preferred play style on both sides of this matchup.
All odds from BetMGM. Looking for college football tickets? Find them here.
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No. 24 Michigan at No. 22 Illinois odds
How to watch Michigan at Illinois
- Venue: Memorial Stadium — Champaign, Ill.
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Expert picks against the spread
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(Photo of Donovan Edwards and Alex Orji: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
