In today’s issue:
- Presidential rivals stoke voter doubts
- Which party will lead the Senate in 2025?
- Israel attacks U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon
- “Chopsticks” could help SpaceX reuse rocket boosters
There are three weeks to go in a presidential contest so close, the result will depend on whether former President Trump or Vice President Harris does the superior job of getting their respective supporters to the polls while raising voters’ doubts about the competition.
The latest in the nail-biting race may be obvious, but campaign insiders describe turnout operations as critical when just a few thousand votes in a handful of states are likely to decide President Biden’s successor.
Asked late last week about the universe of truly undecided voters up for grabs, Harris campaign adviser David Plouffe estimated 4 percent, calling it “challenging” for the Democratic campaign to woo a widely diverse group across gender, ages, race and geographic locations, not to mention willingness to participate in 2024 politics.
The Hill: Democratic voter registration raises red flags for Harris.
“Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are going to go everywhere there’s an audience, really,” said Plouffe, referring to outreach options that cover the gamut from traditional and unconventional communication platforms to reach likely voters.
“Donald Trump is going to get 48 percent of the vote everywhere, maybe 48 and a half. We’ve just got to get more than that,” Plouffe told “Pod Save America,” hosted by his former Obama campaign colleague Dan Pfeiffer. “It’s a margin-of-error race.”
▪ The Hill’s Niall Stanage: Trump’s election chances edge up.
▪ The Hill: Trump doubles down on insults and mockery of the vice president.
The former president’s strategy is to nail down a loyal base while also stirring doubts about Harris and her running mate among Republican and independent voters in key swing states. He takes aim at Harris using facts and fiction with broadsides about Democrats’ policies, her role in the Biden administration, her race and her IQ.
“What he’s trying to do for all voters is paint a mosaic that she’s unqualified to be the president of the United States,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist.
“Obviously they’re taking whacks at us, so we have to make sure we’re protecting our flank wherever we see damage being done,” Plouffe added.
Harris and her campaign surrogates cast Trump as a risky choice to be handed a return engagement in the Oval Office.
“We can already see the harm he’s up to as a candidate. Most recently, spreading disinformation in the wake of natural disasters,” Harris said during a Sunday rally in Greenville, N.C. “Donald Trump cares more about scaring people, creating fear, running on a problem instead of what real leaders do, which is to participate in fixing problems,” she added.
“I think the message to the American people is that this guy is clearly unfit for office,” Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) told MSNBC’s “Inside with Jen Psaki” on Sunday. “The amount of damage he did to our country as president is unprecedented.”
Trump for a month has narrowly led Harris in battleground Arizona, according to data from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.
Presidential candidates’ health should matter to voters, Harris, 59, added Sunday while campaigning in North Carolina.
Trump “refuses to release his medical records. I’ve done it. Every other presidential candidate in the modern era has done it,” the vice president told rally goers Sunday.
She released her medical report Saturday, a document her campaign used to draw a contrast with her 78-year-old rival whose voluntary release of medical information has been limited since he entered politics. Trump’s team swiped at Harris and her campaign following the mention of health, alleging the vice president maintains a “much lighter” campaign schedule than the former president.
BOB’S SMART TAKE
There is no doubt that negative campaigning works. But there is a limit.
Trump and Harris have been attacking each other relentlessly. Both would be smart to pivot.
There are still undecided voters out there. Are they moved when Harris calls Trump a dictator for the umpteenth time? Or when Trump calls Harris “a dummy”?
America is worn out by this election. The negativity. The violence. The finger pointing.
Trump and Harris should take a page from Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” and Barack Obama’s “Hope and Change” playbooks. The electorate is in a sour mood but they want to be optimistic. Harris and Trump should stop the name calling and try to lift the country up. Whoever does that will win this thing.
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY
▪ Death tolls from two back-to-back hurricanes are still being tallied and confirmed by state officials as the week begins. Hurricane Helene in North Carolina was responsible for at least 115 storm-related deaths and hundreds of people are still listed as missing. In Florida, 20 were reported killed. In South Carolina, the number was 49. In Georgia, 33. In Tennessee, 12. And in Virginia, Hurricane Helene was blamed for the deaths of two people.
▪ Mystery drones swarmed a U.S. military base for 17 days. The Pentagon is stumped, including about how to stop them.
▪ Federal regulators shook up the booming weight loss drug marketplace when they announced Mounjaro and Zepbound to be no longer in shortage after nearly two years.
LEADING THE DAY
© The Hill | Illustration by Courtney Jones; Ben Allan Smith, Julie Carr Smyth and Scott Applewhite, The Associated Press; and Adobe Stock
THERE ARE 22 DAYS UNTIL NOV. 5. Early voting kicks off in Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada this week.
The battle for the Senate majority has hit its final month as Republicans race to end their four-year stint in the minority. The GOP needs to win only one of two competitive races in red states — Montana and Ohio — to do just that. According to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Republicans have a 72 percent chance of retaking the upper chamber. The Hill’s Al Weaver breaks down five of the likeliest seats to flip red this November.
A key test for Democrats: Montana. Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is trailing in the polls as Montana follows other states in the Great Plains. Once bastions of progressive prairie populism, they have experienced stark change in their congressional delegations, shifting almost completely out of reach for Democrats.
Now, the Democratic Party sees the Montana Senate race as proof of whether it can still be successful in heavily rural states that have turned deep red.
In Arizona, split-ticket voters could propel Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego to the Senate. An aggregate of Arizona surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Trump — who won the state in 2016 before narrowly losing it in 2020 — just edging past Harris at roughly 49 percent to 48 percent. Yet a DDHQ aggregate shows Gallego more comfortably leading Senate GOP challenger Kari Lake at 50 percent to 42 percent.
The Hill: New signs of a tightening race in Wisconsin are flashing warning signs for incumbent Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin as she looks to fend off a challenge from Trump-backed Eric Hovde.
OVER IN THE HOUSE, Democrats have a fair shot at flipping control of the chamber — largely because of the boost provided by Harris at the top of the ticket. But The Hill’s Mychael Schnell and Mike Lillis report the battle is a horse race that is too close to call heading into the final weeks of the campaign, according to a host of election forecasters.
“More so than anything else, that change in late July and early August has been a real boon to downballot Democrats,” said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor at Inside Elections, a nonpartisan election handicapper. “Truly, it’s a rising tide lifts all boats scenario.”
The Hill: Democrats are increasingly optimistic about ousting Rep. Scott Perry (R) in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.
2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP
Trump and Harris are deadlocked in the latest national NBC News poll, with Trump bolstered by Republicans coming back home to support him after last month’s debate and a subsequent polling deficit.
Pollsters say they are employing a range of methodologies to ensure that they are not underestimating Trump amid survey after survey that shows a dead heat in various swing states.
Trump’s longtime trade adviser is apparently telling Wall Street money managers that if the former president is reelected, he could start implementing his sweeping tariff proposals quickly after taking office,
Trump said Sunday that “if really necessary,” the military should be called for “some sick people, radical-left lunatics,” when asked if he is expecting chaos on Election Day in an interview with Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo.
Two Georgia election workers are plowing to collect their $146 million defamation judgment against Rudy Giuliani, but the former New York City mayor is digging in amid an array of financial troubles.
Trump on Sunday announced a plan to expand the Border Patrol if reelected. At a rally in Prescott, Ariz., the former president committed to a goal of hiring 10,000 new agents, providing a 10 percent raise, and a $10,000 retention and signing bonus, “because they haven’t been treated right.”
A Las Vegas man was arrested with a loaded weapon Saturday at a checkpoint near Trump’s California rally. Trump was not in danger, the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department said in a news release on Sunday.
WHERE AND WHEN
The House will convene a pro forma session at 10 a.m. on Tuesday. The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 1:30 p.m. on Tuesday.
The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m.
First lady Jill Biden will headline a political event in Detroit at 3:15 p.m. She will speak at another event at 4:15 p.m. in Oakland County, Mich. She will address a campaign audience in Madison, Wis., at 6:30 p.m. The first lady will fly to the Bidens’ Wilmington, Del., home late tonight.
Candidate schedules this week: Harris is in Washington this morning before heading to Erie, Pa., for a rally at 7:35 p.m. On Tuesday, the vice president will hold a rally in Detroit. On Wednesday, Harris will campaign in Pennsylvania. On Thursday, she’ll campaign in Milwaukee, La Crosse, Wis., and Green Bay, Wis. On Friday, Harris will be in Grand Rapids, Mich., Lansing, Mich., and Oakland County, Mich. On Saturday, Harris will return to Detroit and Atlanta. Today, Trump will hold a 6 p.m. town hall in Oaks, Pa. On Tuesday, the former president will speak in Atlanta at 7:30 p.m. On Wednesday, Trump will participate in a Univision town hall in Miami, rescheduled from earlier in the month because of Florida hurricanes. Also on Wednesday, Trump will hold a rally at 7 p.m. in Duluth, Ga.. Today, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will participate in a political event in Eau Claire, Wis., at 12:45 p.m. He will travel to Green Bay, Wis., to headline a bus tour kickoff event with Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 5 p.m. Walz will fly late tonight to Pittsburgh and remain overnight. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will headline two rallies Wednesday, the first in Williamsport, Pa., and the second in Wilmington, N.C.
ZOOM IN
© The Associated Press | Manuel Balce Ceneta
BIDEN VISITED FLORIDA Sunday in the wake of back-to-back hurricanes Helene and Milton, surveying the damage and announcing plans for several energy projects. Two Florida-based companies will receive $94 million to assist with rebuilding power grids in the area, of a total of $612 million for projects to help the electric grid in areas affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
“For some individuals, it was cataclysmic,” Biden said of Milton. “All those folks who probably lost their home, and, more importantly, those folks who lost their lives, lost family members, lost all their personal belongings.”
The Biden administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have been put under a microscope in recent weeks as the two hurricanes tore through the Southeast. In his remarks, the president noted that in natural disasters, “we come together to take care of each other, not as Democrats or Republicans, but as Americans. We are one United States.”
Meanwhile, officials are warning a key federal program that provides disaster loans to businesses and homeowners is running critically low on funds in the aftermath of back-to-back hurricanes, increasing the pressure on Congress to return to Washington.
But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Sunday said passing additional aid for states impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton “can wait” until Congress is back in session after the election. CBS “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan asked him why he thinks it’s fine to wait until November.
“Well, it can wait because, remember, the day before Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida and then went up through the states and wound up in Senator Tillis’s state of North Carolina, Congress appropriated 20 billion additional dollars to FEMA so that they would have the necessary resources to address immediate needs,” Johnson said.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) was part of a bipartisan group of senators who signed a letter urging lawmakers back into session this month to enact disaster legislation before the end of the year. Last month’s stopgap funding bill allowed for FEMA to use the fund’s fiscal 2025 resources faster, allowing the agency access to a roughly $20 billion pot starting Oct. 1. But the bill didn’t include additional FEMA funding.
Johnson said that, as of Sunday, less than 2 percent of the already passed funding has been distributed. He said FEMA needs to “do its job” and disperse the funds to the affected communities.
▪ The Hill: How schools are tackling misinformation as false claims about hurricanes and the election run wild.
▪ The Hill: The growing tension between the Philippines and China has raised the question of whether the U.S. is willing to defend its ally against Chinese aggression, particularly in disputed territories of the Pacific Ocean.
ELSEWHERE
© The Associated Press | Mohammed Zaatari
THE U.S. WILL SEND ISRAEL a missile defense system and military personnel to operate it, the Pentagon announced Sunday. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin authorized the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery “and associated crew of U.S. military personnel” at Biden’s direction “to help bolster Israel’s air defenses following Iran’s unprecedented attacks against Israel on April 13 and again on October 1.”
The move will put about 100 American troops operating the ground-based interceptor closer to the widening war in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Israeli tanks forced their way onto a United Nations peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon on Sunday, putting the lives of the soldiers there in danger and violating international law, according to the U.N. Hours later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his call for the U.N. to pull the peacekeepers out of the area immediately.
The tank incursion follows criticism of Israeli forces over attacks that have wounded at least four peacekeepers in Lebanon as Israel has launched two weeks of strikes to stop Hezbollah from firing rockets and drones across the border. Israel alleges a system of Hezbollah tunnels abuts the U.N.’s peacekeeping position.
Biden said Friday that Israel should “absolutely” stop strikes on the U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon.
▪ The Washington Post: Dozens of pages found by Israeli troops in Gaza detail a potential Hamas plan far bigger than the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and show how militant leaders wanted Iranian funds and training.
▪ The New York Times: Israeli soldiers and Palestinian former detainees say troops have regularly forced captured Gazans to carry out life-threatening tasks, including inside Hamas tunnels.
▪ Reuters: Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Sunday again declared U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres persona non grata over what he described as a failure to condemn Iran’s missile attack and antisemitic and anti-Israel conduct.
▪ CNN: Some 300 people have been killed in the Jabalya refugee camp in northern Gaza since the beginning of the latest Israeli ground operation in the area nine days ago.
OPINION
■ SpaceX and our continuing age of discovery, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.
■ What the polls really say about Black men’s support for Kamala Harris, by Jelani Cobb, opinion contributor, The New Yorker.
THE CLOSER
© The Associated Press | Eric Gay
And finally … 🚀 Waste not, want not, beat the competition.
SpaceX for the first time successfully caught its 232-foot-tall rocket booster after it fell to Earth following a launch. The goal: reuse the essential Super Heavy booster on future missions. The tube-shaped booster descended into the gigantic arms of a metal frame, which SpaceX dubbed “chopsticks.”
Watch video of the booster catch HERE.
Landing rocket boosters after flight is a feat that SpaceX mastered with its smaller workhorse rocket, the Falcon 9, CNN reports. Boosters from that rocket have made soft touchdowns on seafaring platforms or ground pads after more than 330 launches — allowing those vehicles to be refurbished and flown again. SpaceX says that has driven down its costs, allowing the company to undercut the rest of the rocket market.
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