Does the Vanderbilt-Bama upset even matter? Plus, Week 5 NFL watch guide

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Good morning! Please let Rece Davis rest today. 

Three Questions: College football’s new reality

There was a time when you couldn’t suffer an embarrassing regular-season upset and still be a title contender in college football. Sometimes, you couldn’t lose at all. Ask Georgia. Last year, the Dawgs lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, finished 13-1, and didn’t even crack the four-team playoff. A two-time defending national champion lost once, against a good team, and was out. Those were the rules.

Last night, Alabama endured one of the more stunning upsets in modern college football history — a legit No. 1 going down to Vanderbilt. VANDERBILT (🤯). But this is the first year of the 12-team playoff field. So, we must ask: Is this a first-of-its-kind humiliation, a giant upset that maybe doesn’t matter much?

We grabbed the author of our College Football Playoff projection model, Austin Mock. Open the link. That’s the playoff field. But we have questions…

Seems wild, but Bama is still a playoff team, right?

Austin: They are. My model has them at 80 percent and the sixth most likely team to make the playoff. Did they give themselves a smaller margin of error? Certainly. But they’re still one of the best teams in the country and a win over Georgia will go a long way.

How many teams feel like locks? Call it 80 percent or higher.

I currently have six teams with at least an 80 percent chance of making the playoff. Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Penn State and Alabama. Miami (Florida), after a wild comeback last night, is above 75 percent, but the eighth team (Ole Miss) is at just 53 percent. The last few spots of the playoff are going to be chaotic over the final two months.

Who is going to make it that never makes the old playoff?

Boise State is my favorite to make the playoff from the Group of 5. They already have a loss — by three points at Oregon — but a one-loss non-Power conference team would have never had a shot in the old format.

Again, hit refresh on this playoff model every day. And read Until Saturday for everything you need to know on how the new playoff field will shift.

NFL Watch Guide: Morning football is extremely back

The European games are beginning today, which means many of us will inevitably wake up this morning and find a delightful surprise on TV as we pour a coffee. Your guide to an extremely full day:

9:30 a.m. ET
Jets vs. Vikings — This feels like a must-win for New York even though it certainly isn’t. The vibes are awful on this team, and despite a 2-2 record, the season feels on the verge of collapse — unless Davante Adams is on the way. Oh, and they have to play the most impressive team of the young NFL season. Cheerio. TV: NFL Network

1 p.m. ET 

Bills at Texans — Most will flock to Ravens-Bengals, but we touched on that one Friday while this sneaky great game just sits here. Are the Bills the team that started 3-1 or the one that crashed out in Baltimore last week? And can the Texans actually put an impressive performance together? Also, Stefon Diggs gets to see his old team. TV: CBS

4:25 p.m. ET 

Packers at Rams — Two talented teams with good head coaches who come from the same tree. Two teams that have dealt with injuries and feel like they haven’t found their final form. Jordan Love versus Matthew Stafford. Yes. TV: CBS

8:20 p.m. ET
Cowboys at Steelers — I have no idea what to make of these two. Russell Wilson? Apparently he’s coming back at some point, but Pittsburgh is firmly Justin Fields’ operation for now. Dallas? Not a shred of consistency thus far, and Brandin Cooks is out tonight. You could tell me any result and I’d believe you. I guess that makes for a good game. TV: NBC

Stream NFL games on Fubo.

Kiyoshi Mio / Imagn Images

News to Know

MLB divisional round underway
Game 1s across MLB’s Division Series did not disappoint. Shohei Ohtani — in his MLB postseason debut — lifted the Dodgers to a comeback win over the Padres, executing a bat chuck worth watching. The Mets put up a five-spot in the eighth inning to down the Phillies, the Yankees edged the Royals in a game that saw five lead changes and the Guardians scored five runs in the first to put the Tigers away. Full roundup and TV schedule here. 

Aces, Sun in must-win mode
Both WNBA semifinal series — Las Vegas-New York and Minnesota-Connecticut — stand at 2-1, with Game 4s on the schedule today. The defending champion Aces staved off elimination Friday as four players, led in scoring by Jackie Young, finally delivered top-notch performances in a 95-81 win. Courtney Williams, meanwhile, was key Friday as the Lynx took their series’ lead. Liberty-Aces tips off at 3 p.m. ET (ABC), followed by Lynx-Sun at 5 p.m. (ESPN). Stream for free on Fubo.

More news

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Big Moves: Updates on Adams, Rice and more

We’re back with fresh news nuggets for a fresh NFL Sunday, thanks to senior insider Dianna Russini. Here’s the latest:

• On Davante Adams: The Cowboys seem out on the WR after his trade request because of the money ($13.5 million) he’s owed this year, but Dianna says the Jets are “working like they’re all-in.” Aaron Rodgers has been clear he wants Adams in New York, and the team has been in touch with the Raiders all week. The Saints and Steelers are also in the mix, per Dianna, while the Bills and Chiefs are “monitoring” things — like if Las Vegas is willing to foot some of the bill.
• On Rashee Rice: Speaking of Kansas City … Rice could be out for “six weeks or six months,” per Dianna. It all depends on how his knee scope goes later this week. Once they get some answers, the Chiefs will decide if they need to pursue a replacement.
• On the Browns: Dianna reports that Cleveland recently held a players-only meeting. Always a great sign, right?

More updates here. (Also, we wouldn’t pass up the biggest NFL news of the last couple days: The 49ers are opting to wear white pants — after Labor Day, no less! — in an attempt to beat the heat today.)

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Pulse Picks

We’ll have more this week on hockey, but for now, enjoy our full 2024-25 NHL season preview. Predictions galore there.

Earlier in the week, Nick Baumgardner put out a new NFL mock draft. No one knows what to do with the quarterbacks.

Wait, why are the Bulls bringing in Josh Primo?

Larry Holder dropped his first quarterback trading card collectibility power rankings.

How are Tom Brady and Bill Belichick doing four weeks into broadcasting? Richard Deitsch hands out grades.

Try today’s Connections: Sports Edition beta. One mistake for me (Branch) today.

Most-clicked in the newsletter Friday: The picture of champagne being wheeled from the Brewers’ clubhouse to the Mets’ locker room. Brutal.

Most-read on the website yesterday: Dianna’s NFL news column we mentioned. Read it!

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(Top photo: Butch Dill / Imagn Images)