The Braves and Mets can clinch a playoff spot Sunday — and avoid a reunion in Atlanta on Monday.
The Diamondbacks can be eliminated Sunday — or force the Mets to fly to Georgia.
Or it’s possible none of the above will happen Sunday — because of course it won’t.
At any rate, with one day remaining in the season — for 30 of the 32 teams, at least — none of the four matchups in the Wild Card Series, which begin in only two days, is set.
So is that wild enough for you? Let’s hope! Ahead of the final Sunday of the regular season, here’s a look at every possibility.
The National League wild-card derby
Believe it or not, there were still eight different possible scenarios Sunday. The most important thing to remember is that if the Braves win Sunday, they’re in. But if the Mets and Diamondbacks both win, they’re not necessarily in. Here are all eight possible options:
Braves, Mets, Diamondbacks all win —If that happens, the Braves clinch a spot, but the Mets-Diamondbacks race would remain essentially tied. So the Mets and Braves would still have to play at least one game of their makeup doubleheader Monday. If the Mets win Game 1, they’re in. If they lose, there would be a Game 2. In other words, the Mets would still need to win at least one game of the doubleheader to advance.
Braves, Mets, Diamondbacks all lose — If all three lose, we have exactly the same scenario as above. The Braves clinch a spot. The Mets would have to win at least one game of the makeup doubleheader to clinch their spot.
Braves and Mets win, but Diamondbacks lose — If that happens, the Diamondbacks are eliminated, and there are no games Monday in Atlanta. The Braves would be the No. 5 seed in the NL and face the Padres (locked in as the fourth seed). The Mets would be the No. 6 seed and play the third-seeded Brewers.
Braves and Diamondbacks win, but Mets lose — In this scenario, the Braves clinch but still have to host the Mets on Monday. Then a Braves win in Game 1 on Monday would eliminate the Mets, and the Diamondbacks would advance. A Mets win in Game 1 on Monday means Game 2 would determine whether the Mets or Diamondbacks advance.
Braves win, but Mets and Diamondbacks lose — Then we’re looking at exactly the same situation as the one above. The Mets have to play — and win — Game 1 on Monday, or there’s a Game 2.
Mets and Diamondbacks win, but Braves lose — This is basically your chaos scenario. Both games of the doubleheader would have to be played Monday. The Game 1 winner is in. The Game 1 loser would have to play — and win — Game 2 to advance. If the Game 1 loser gets swept, the Diamondbacks are in.
Mets win, but Braves and Diamondbacks lose — Then the Diamondbacks are eliminated, and there are no games Monday. The Braves would be the No. 5 seed, and the Mets would be the No. 6 seed, because the Braves hold the tiebreaker.
Diamondbacks win, but Braves and Mets both lose — This is the only scenario in which the Diamondbacks could clinch today. They would then have 89 wins, which would force the Mets to fly to Atlanta and sweep the doubleheader Monday. If the Braves win either game, they would advance, and the Mets would be eliminated.
There you go. Got it? All we know for certain is that the Dodgers are the No. 1 seed in the NL and the Phillies are the No. 2 seed, so they both hold byes for this round. It’s everything else that’s totally unknown.
The most likely NL Wild Card Series matchups are Braves-Padres, with all three games in San Diego, and Mets-Brewers, with all three games in Milwaukee. But “likely” hasn’t described anything about this race. So theoretically, we’ll know Sunday night — which no doubt means we won’t know until Monday night.
The American League wild-card scenarios
Here’s what we know: The Yankees and Guardians are the one and two seeds, respectively, so they have byes. The Astros and Orioles are the three and four seeds. So they’ll host all three games of the AL Wild Card Series … against somebody.
But then there are the Tigers and Royals. They’re the last two wild-card teams, but we still don’t know which is the No. 5 seed and which is the No. 6. Here is how that could go.
Tigers win Sunday — Then they’re the No. 5 seed and head for Baltimore.
Royals lose Sunday — Then they’re the No. 6 seed and head for Houston.
Tigers and Royals both lose Sunday — The Tigers are still the No. 5 seed.
Tigers lose, but Royals win — This is the only scenario in which the Royals would be the No. 5 seed. Kansas City and Detroit would each finish the season at 86-76. But the Royals hold the tiebreaker, thanks to a three-run ninth-inning rally in Detroit on Aug. 4 that clinched the season series for KC. The Tigers were a very different team then, but they could still be haunted by their previous selves if that’s how Sunday turns out.
(Photo: David J. Griffin / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
