Every spring training, I predict the players who I think are primed for breakout seasons, and every year I have my share of hits and misses. This year, I hit on position players such as Elly De La Cruz and Riley Greene and pitchers such as Tarik Skubal and Hunter Greene, but I left out others who now deserve credit after impressive gains this season.
When I compile my list, my definition for a breakout candidate is simply a player I expect to perform at a much higher level than their major-league track record, or to burst onto the scene and blow away the rookie field.
Here are 20 standouts who turned their potential into production in 2024 and made the biggest jumps among major-league players. If you think I missed any players, please present your case in the comments section.
(Note: WAR figures are according to Baseball Reference from Sept. 24)
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
WAR: 6.1
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told me during 2021 spring training that Tarik Skubal was the best pitching prospect in their organization and that he wouldn’t be surprised if the lefty eventually won a Cy Young Award. Three years later, his prediction is about to come true as Skubal has gone 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 innings. He leads the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, ERA+ and FIP. He’s the game’s biggest breakout player in 2024.
2. Jarren Duran, CF, Red Sox
WAR: 8.6
This year Jarren Duran became the first player in major-league history to record at least 10 triples, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases and 40 doubles in a season. In addition to his significant offensive improvement, he’s bettered his defense, ranking in the 96th percentile in outs above average (range) and in the 96th percentile in fielding run value while improving both his jumps and angles on balls in the outfield. He continues to be a force on the basepaths, ranking in the 100th percentile in baserunning run value and in the 97th percentile in sprint speed.
3. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
WAR: 6.0
Paul Skenes took MLB by storm this season with a string of dominating performances that led to him being named the National League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star Game. He’s gone 11-3 with a 1.99 ERA over 22 starts, with 167 strikeouts in 131 innings. Opposing batters are hitting .187 against his sinker and .106 against his sweeper. From a national championship last year with LSU to a blazing start in the big leagues this year with the Buccos — and topping the MLB Draft in between — this rookie is on quite a ride. There are several worthy candidates for NL Rookie of the Year, but if I had to pick one, I’d go with Skenes.
Riley Greene has a career-high .833 OPS. (Peter Aiken / Imagn Images)
4. Riley Greene, LF, Tigers
WAR: 5.3
Riley Greene played 93 games in his 2022 rookie season and hit .254 with five home runs in 418 plate appearances. In 2023, injuries limited him to 99 games, as he batted .288 with 11 home runs in 416 plate appearances. But this year he’s played 131 games in a breakout season, reaching base at a career-high .350 clip with 24 home runs and 72 RBIs. He made his first All-Star team and has been one of the key cogs keeping Detroit in the hunt for a wild-card spot.
5. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
WAR: 5.2
Elly De La Cruz is one of the best athletes in baseball, just oozing speed and power in all facets of his game. He ranks in the 100th percentile in sprint speed, in the 98th percentile in defensive range, in the 90th percentile in arm strength, and in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity and bat speed. De La Cruz has wowed the sport since his debut last season, but this year he’s made meaningful strides, slashing .260/.341/.473 with 25 home runs and 65 stolen bases and making his first All-Star team.
6. Cole Ragans, LHP, Royals
WAR: 4.6
The Royals’ lopsided 2023 trade with the Rangers that landed Cole Ragans for Aroldis Chapman keeps looking better and better. In his third year in the majors, Ragans has gone 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts in a league-high 32 starts. He ranks in the 91st percentile in Whiff% and in the 89th percentile in K%, and batters are hitting just .181 against his changeup, which has a 48.2 percent whiff rate. He’s been strong in four September starts for the Royals, allowing three runs in 25 innings.
7. Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres
WAR: 4.3
Jackson Merrill was drafted as a shortstop in 2021 and had never played center field professionally until this spring training when Padres manager Mike Shildt put him there permanently. It was an amazing transition to behold. The Padres didn’t miss a beat with Merrill patrolling center, and he’s hit .292 with 24 home runs, 16 stolen bases and 89 RBIs. He’s arguably been the best rookie position player in this year’s class.
8. Jackson Chourio, LF, Brewers
WAR: 3.8
Jackson Chourio, 20, struggled in March/April, batting .206, and wasn’t much better in May when he hit .215. But the Brewers’ front office believed in him and didn’t send him down to the minors, and Chourio rewarded their faith by hitting .315 in June, .317 in July and .321 in August. He also showed his power-speed combination by hitting 21 homers and stealing 21 bases to help Milwaukee win the NL Central. For me, he’s neck and neck with Merrill for the best rookie position player in MLB this year.
Luis Gil is one of the favorites to win AL Rookie of the Year. (Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today / Imagn Images)
9. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees
WAR: 3.4
Originally signed by the Twins at 17 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Luis Gil was dealt to the Yankees three years later for outfielder Jake Cave in one of the most lopsided minor-league trades of general manager Brian Cashman’s career. Gil reached the majors in 2021, posting a 3.07 ERA in six starts, then made only one major-league start in 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. But this year he’s broken out in a big way, going 15-6 with a 3.27 ERA in 28 starts. His 98 mph fastball and wipeout breaking pitch can dominate even the best hitters. His only issue is a lack of consistency and command at times. He’s clearly the best rookie starting pitcher in the American League. I’m not sure if Gil or his teammate Austin Wells will end up winning AL Rookie of the Year, but they’ve both earned it.
10. Mason Miller, RHP, A’s
WAR: 2.5
Mason Miller became one of the best closers in MLB this year thanks to an overpowering 100-104 mph fastball that opposing batters have hit .168 against and a wipeout slider that they’ve hit .134 against. He has 27 saves with 99 strikeouts in 62 2/3 innings. He made his mark in his first midsummer classic, delivering the hardest recorded pitch in All-Star Game history (103.6 mph) and tallying two strikeouts in a scoreless inning. He could develop into an elite starting pitcher but prefers to stay as an elite closer. Regardless of what the future holds for Miller, his breakout season was sensational.
11. Michael King, RHP, Padres
WAR: 3.9
One of the headliners in the blockbuster trade that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees, Michael King has more than delivered for the Padres in his first full season as a major-league starter, going 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA over 31 appearances (30 starts), with 201 strikeouts in 173 2/3 innings. Opposing batters are hitting .200 against his sinker and .212 against his changeup. He ranks in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
12. Brenton Doyle, CF, Rockies
WAR: 4.0
The Rockies have had to endure another last-place season, but Brenton Doyle’s development was one of the bright spots as he’s gone from a .593 OPS last year to a .765 OPS this year. Doyle has batted .262/.319/.446 this season with 22 home runs and 29 stolen bases while playing Gold Glove caliber defense in center field. He is in the 98th percentile in fielding run value, in the 98th percentile in outs above average (range) and in the 99th percentile in arm strength. He also has elite speed, ranking in the 94th percentile in sprint speed and in the 92nd percentile in baserunning run value. In Doyle, the Rockies have their long-term answer in center field.
13. Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox
WAR: 3.8
Garrett Crochet was one of the best left-handed starting pitchers in the AL in the first half, logging a 3.02 ERA with 150 strikeouts in 107 1/3 innings. Trade rumors swirled at the deadline but then he and his agent said he wouldn’t pitch in the postseason without a contract extension, which killed any chances of Chicago dealing him. Most analysts thought the White Sox would shut down Crochet for the rest of the season for the long-term benefit of the team and his health, but they decided to still pitch him, though on a more limited basis. He proceeded to go 0-6 with a 5.71 ERA in his final 11 starts of the year. However, this year should still be considered a breakout campaign for Crochet. He made the All-Star team and is now viewed as a future ace.
14. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Phillies
WAR: 3.5
Cristopher Sánchez showed signs last year that he could be a solid starting pitcher, as he posted a 3.44 ERA over 18 starts and one relief appearance. But this year he proved it with a breakout season, making the All-Star team, winning 11 games, and registering a 3.25 ERA and 2.95 FIP over 30 starts (177 innings). The Phillies awarded Sánchez with a four-year, $22.5 million contract extension in June that’s looking more and more like a club-friendly deal. His changeup has become a wipeout pitch; opposing batters are hitting just .180 against it. He ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate because hitters can’t lay off the pitch in or out of the strike zone.
Yainer Diaz and Ronel Blanco have been valuable contributors for Houston. (Thomas Shea / Imagn Images)
15. Yainer Diaz, C, Astros
WAR: 3.8
After years of playing deep into the playoffs with catcher Martín Maldonado helping lead the way, the Astros moved on from the veteran and gave the gig to Yainer Diaz, who has provided much more offense at the position. This season he has batted .302/.326/.445 with 29 doubles, 16 home runs and 84 RBIs, though his OPS has dropped from .846 last year to .771 this year (which still ranks fourth in the majors among catchers). Defensively, he’s done a solid job of blocking balls and shutting down the running game.
16. Ronel Blanco, RHP, Astros
WAR: 4.0
Ronel Blanco made the majors in 2022 and posted a 7.11 ERA in seven relief appearances. Last year he had seven starts and 10 relief appearances, pitching to a 4.50 ERA and walking almost five batters per nine innings. This year has been a different story as he’s gone 12-6 with a 2.88 ERA over 29 appearances (28 starts) after throwing a no-hitter in his first start of the season. He’s one of the Astros starters who stepped up and saved their season after a rash of injuries in the rotation.
17. Zach Neto, SS, Angels
WAR: 4.9
One of the most important building blocks for the Angels, Zach Neto had a breakout season, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 30 bases while playing solid defense at shortstop most of the time. He still needs some work defensively, but his manager, Ron Washington, continues to teach and Neto, 23, continues to learn and improve.
Jurickson Profar’s reunion with the Padres has been a big success for both team and player. (Orlando Ramirez / Imagn Images)
18. Jurickson Profar, LF, Padres
WAR: 3.7
For whatever reason, Jurickson Profar attracted little interest from teams in free agency last offseason, finally agreeing to a one-year, $1 million contract with the Padres in late February. What a deal that’s turned out to be for San Diego, as Profar has produced a career year in his age-31 season, batting .285/.384/.469 (138 OPS+) with 24 homers and 85 RBIs. He is tied for the NL lead in on-base percentage. He ranks in the 96th percentile in batting run value. The first-time All-Star has certainly been one the best value signings of the past year.
19. Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets
WAR: 3.1
The Mets had hoped Mark Vientos would be their everyday third baseman in 2023, but after 65 games, a .211 batting average and below-average defense they felt he needed more development. This year he’s run with his opportunity, improving defensively through hard work and hitting .270 with 22 doubles and 26 home runs while supplying New York with energy and enthusiasm.
20. Tanner Houck, RHP, Red Sox
WAR: 3.9
Last year, Tanner Houck logged a 5.01 ERA in 21 starts. This year, he’s thrown more secondary pitches and had much more success, posting a 3.12 ERA over 30 starts and setting new career highs in strikeouts (154) and innings (178 2/3). He also made his first All-Star team.
(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Paul Skenes: Joe Puetz / Getty Images; Tarik Skubal: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images; Jarren Duran: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
