Democrats had hoped to put the Maryland Senate race to bed by now. Instead, they are poised to devote time and resources in the deep blue state all the way until November in a bid to keep the seat in party hands.
The race between Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) has been widely considered the Democrat’s to lose given the state’s traditional liberal bent and former President Trump’s presence on the ticket.
But with the calendar almost set to hit October, the race is nowhere close to being in the can for Democrats as Hogan, the popular two-term governor, has remained within striking distance of Alsobrooks. Some surveys show them dead even.
This has forced the party in power to go heavy on the airwaves. Democrats outspent Republicans by nearly a 6-to-1 margin last week, with senators and party operatives expecting that heavy spending to last through Election Day.
“Nobody’s taking it for granted,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said. “You sure see a lot of ads on TV up here during the week. Anytime I’m watching a TV show, from a sporting event to Turner Classic Movies, I’m seeing a Maryland Senate ad.”
“I think everybody believes it is possible. … I know [Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] takes that race very seriously,” Kaine continued about the possibility of Hogan nabbing the seat. “He’s not going to sneak up on anybody and win. … On the day he announced he was [running], I remember Chuck’s reaction that this is going to be a major investment for us on the Democratic side to win. We can win and we will win, but we’re not going to win by just assuming. We’re going to have to invest, and I think you see that they have.”
That sentiment is being felt across the Democratic side. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), one of the foremost Alsobrooks backers, recently briefed Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) on the race. He said, “We have some work to do,” but he predicted they will be fine when all is said and done.
Still, some also acknowledge the Prince George’s County executive has some blemishes to work through. Chief among them is that she is not defined well enough to the electorate at this stage — a point Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the head of the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, raised to reporters early last week and Maryland Democrats agree with.
“It’s a challenge because of course she was not known in the Baltimore area,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), whose seat is up for grabs after he announced his retirement. “So she has a challenge. There’s no question about that and we recognize she has to work on that.”
Polling has been all over the map in recent weeks on the race. An Emerson College/The Hill survey released last week shows Alsobrooks holding a 7-point lead. An AARP poll released in late August, however, showed the two tied at 46 percent.
Internal polling shown to Republican senators at a National Republican Senatorial Committee luncheon earlier this month also showed the race even, giving GOP members a shot in the arm.
“It’s tight, but he’s well positioned. Obviously there’s the top of the ticket dynamic in Maryland, which he has to manage and juggle, but he’s a very gifted leader and I hope he can pull it off,” said Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican.
“I think [Democrats] were hoping it would go away, but I think it’s a race,” he added.
Democratic confidence is based, in part, on the dynamics of the race and how it differs from Hogan’s gubernatorial victories, both of which came in midterm years and without Trump at the top of the ticket.
While Hogan’s favorability remains robust — the AARP poll put it at 59 percent — Democrats are relying on Maryland voters’ hunger for Democratic control of the upper chamber.
The margin of victory by Vice President Harris will also matter, with President Biden carrying Maryland by 33 percentage points in 2020. The Emerson/The Hill and the AARP polls show Harris leading the former president by 31 and 32 points, respectively.
Democrats also see his chief vulnerability being his stance on abortion and reproductive rights.
He has said he is “pro-choice,” and earlier this month, he released two ads highlighting reproductive rights. But Democrats have accused him of flip-flopping on the issue and pointed to legislation he vetoed as governor to require most insurance plans to cover abortions and lift a requirement that only physicians can perform them, and his decision to withhold funding allocated to train new abortion providers.
For Democrats, meanwhile, abortion has emerged as a key driver of voter enthusiasm and turnout.
In a nod to that, EMILY’s List, a political action committee that seeks to elect women in favor of abortion rights, spent $1.1 million last week to boost Alsobrooks, with more expected in the coming weeks.
“I think she’s making it clear that she’s going to fight for people’s kitchen table concerns and that she’s going to be a fighter for reproductive freedom and people’s rights. I think that’s getting through. I think we just need to do more of it,” Van Hollen said.
Despite the big money that’s already hit the airwaves, Democrats are bracing themselves.
Maryland’s Future, a super PAC backing Hogan’s efforts, had $15 million in its coffers by the end of June and has spent little thus far.
How that money is deployed will be interesting, ranging from shoring up his position on abortion to drawing the requisite contrast with Alsobrooks.
But the state of the race also means that precious resources will likely need to be spent through the ticker tape in one of the bluest states in the nation rather than being deployed in a battleground state that could need it in the final weeks.
“I don’t think it’s going to be put in the bag at any point,” one Maryland Democratic operative said. “I think it’s going to go to the end.”
