Through two weeks, the Detroit Lions are among the least efficient red-zone offenses in the NFL. They rank 28th in red-zone efficiency, coming off a performance in which the team scored one touchdown in seven trips. Dan Campbell isn’t worried, though.
“I’m telling you it’s details. It may not look like it now, but we’re so close. We are so close. That’s what I told the guys, as long as we just go back to work and let’s clean up those little errors that we had, those details to that in particular, the red zone, we will improve and get better.”
With that in mind, The Athletic charted every red-zone play (and a few just outside the 20) to determine how close the Lions really are to getting back on track.
Let’s review.
Drive No. 1: First quarter, 8:09 left.
- First-and-10 from the Tampa 20: Interior pressure from Vita Vea (who beat Frank Ragnow) forced Jared Goff to spin to his left and eventually throw the ball away. However, the Bucs were flagged for a roughing the passer penalty.
- First-and-goal from the Tampa 10: Swing pass to Jahmyr Gibbs. A little interior pressure, but not enough to prevent the ball from getting to Gibbs. Goff hesitates, then puts it in the dirt. Note: That’s two first-and-10 plays, in the red zone, without a rush attempt. Don’t overthink it.
- Second-and-goal from the Tampa 10: Inside zone run for David Montgomery. Sam LaPorta and Penei Sewell with great seals to create room for Montgomery, whose downhill run style is particularly effective in the red zone. Gain of seven to the Tampa 3.
- Third-and-goal from the Tampa 3: A quick out to Jameson Williams, who’s in double coverage. Would’ve taken a perfect ball to beat the coverage. Goff sails it (perhaps intentionally to avoid disaster). Lions settle for a 22-yard Jake Bates field goal.
Drive No. 2: Second quarter, 14:13 left.
- First-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 18: Run to the right. LaPorta blocking on the edge and gets tossed by 9. Gibbs tries to cutback left but he’s closed in quickly by Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Yaya Diaby is also unblocked on the other edge. No gain on the play.
- Second-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 18: Goff pass incomplete to Jameson Williams on the out route. Looked like Goff was expecting to hit Williams toward the sideline. Throw was out in front of him. Stuff that comes with time. Incomplete.
- Third-and-10: Delayed screen to Gibbs. Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler did not win their matchups. Tryon-Shoyinka gets around Zeitler, which forces Gibbs outside, where he’s met by Lavonte David beating Ragnow. Gain of one. Lions settle for a 35-yard field goal.
Drive No. 3: Second quarter, 0:27 left.
- Third-and-2 from the Tampa Bay 20: Goff fakes the handoff to Gibbs then runs to his right. Looks like he has the option to throw but decides to tuck it and run only needing a few. Picks up three on the play for a first down and gets out of bounds to stop the clock.
- First-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 17: Williams is in motion as the ball is snapped and runs a corner route into the end zone. He’s got two defenders on him by the time the ball is there. Incredibly low-percentage throw. One thing I’ve noticed consistently: Goff tends to lead Williams a little bit in front whenever he targets him on a throw toward the sideline. Not sure if it’s a depth issue on Williams’ end or some general early-season inaccuracy.
- Second-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 17: Goff hits Amon-Ra St. Brown over the middle on the crosser. It picks up 8 yards, but with no timeouts, it’s not an ideal play call. St. Brown makes a move upfield for a few useless yards instead of going down immediately. Clock continues to move.
- Third-and-2 from the Tampa Bay 9: The offense lines up to spike the ball for a field goal attempt, but the Lions sent the field goal unit on the field. Campbell took full responsibility for the mishap. He thought there would be enough time to send the field-goal team out. There was not. Not even close. It results in a penalty for too many men on the field, which in turn results in a 10-second runoff with three seconds to go. It ended the first half and cost the Lions a chance at three points, in a game they’d ultimately lose by four. But they had their chances.
Drive No. 4: Third quarter, 13:55 left.
- First-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 20: Lions have trips to the left — two tight ends in Brock Wright and Sam LaPorta and one wide receiver in Kalif Raymond. Goff is in shotgun from an empty look. It’s a wide receiver screen to Raymond with the two tight ends blocking. The throw from Goff is low, which forces Raymond to go down and get it. When he tries to get upfield, LaPorta can’t hold his block, and Tryon-Shoyinka comes shooting in to disrupt the play before it’s cleaned up by Williams Gholston and K.J. Britt. The blocking wasn’t there for that to be a successful play. Gain of 1.
- Second-and-9 from the Tampa Bay 19: Counter run for Montgomery. Blocking wasn’t great, wasn’t terrible. Montgomery tried to get wide with things happening around him and could only manage three. But those are positive yards, at least.
- Third-and-6 from the Tampa Bay 16: Goff check down to Montgomery for a gain of three. Nothing really there on the play. The Bucs ran a stunt with Vita Vea and Diaby that Graham Glasgow was late picking up. Forced some interior pressure. The right read from Goff to check down given the pressure. Just well-defended. Bates’ 32-yard field goal is good.
Drive No. 5: Third quarter, 5:24 left.
- First-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 20: On a Gibbs run to the left, the Lions decide not to block Jordan Whitehead, who shoots in untouched for a four-yard loss. Read it the whole way. Bit of a slow-developing run. Again, one where you’d like to see the Lions just get downhill — especially with Vea done for the game at this point.
- Second-and-14 from the Tampa Bay 24: Technically not a red-zone play, but worth including since it’s the same drive. Three receivers to the right — St. Brown, LaPorta, Williams. Goff never looks in their direction. His first read is Tim Patrick running short hitch to the left, but he’s well-covered. While there was a little bit of pressure allowed by Glasgow on a delayed stunt, it wasn’t enough to affect Goff, who found Jahmyr Gibbs on a swing pass for a gain of six yards.
- Third-and-8 from the Tampa Bay 18: Lions have LaPorta, St. Brown and Williams to the right. Williams runs a 15-yard out route. LaPorta runs a curl route to the middle of the field, taking two Bucs defenders with him. And St. Brown runs a curl to the right, open on the play. An example of LaPorta and Williams opening things up. The protection is excellent, Goff finds St. Brown, he makes a move for a few more yards and the Lions have first-and-goal after the 18-yard gain.
- First-and-goal from the Tampa Bay 1: Montgomery punches it in for a touchdown. No need to overthink it. Touchdown, Lions.
David Montgomery pounds it in for the score 🙌#TBvsDET | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/NHap2ibCpW
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) September 15, 2024
Drive No. 6: Fourth quarter, 8:00 left.
- Second-and-6 from the Tampa 18: To their credit, the Lions decided to run the ball on this drive. The previous two plays were runs by Gibbs — one for 24 and another for four — to set up this play. The Lions go back to Gibbs for an inside run that goes for two yards, but Ragnow was flagged for holding. Rough day for No. 77. The penalty sets up second-and-16 from the Tampa Bay 28.
- Second-and-16 from the Tampa Bay 28: Another play that’s outside of the red zone, but worth including since the drive ultimately stalls here. The Bucs only rush four, but send LB Lavante David on a blitz up the middle, while dropping Tryon-Shoyinka to the flats. Gibbs does his best to pick up the blitz but can’t hold his block. Ragnow leaves Bucs DT C.J. Brewer to help Gibbs, thinking Zeitler will pick up the slack. Zeitler shades over the help Sewell block Diaby, leaving Brewer with a clear path to Goff. Goff gets rid of it, but lofts it over the middle without a receiver in the area. It’s easily picked off on a ball Goff simply cannot throw.
Drive No. 7: Fourth quarter, 1:17 left.
- First-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 13: After a 23-yard run by Gibbs put the offense in the red zone, there’s a setback. A swing pass to Gibbs is immediately snuffed out for a four-yard loss. This is questionable in a few ways: Goff decides to hit Gibbs before other routes develop. The Bucs sent David on a blitz but it was picked up. Felt like a poor read on his part. You can also fault the play in general. This is where you should be running it Montgomery, late in game, with the Bucs missing Vea.
- Second-and-14 from the Tampa Bay 17: Quick out to Williams for a gain of five. Positive yards on the play, but still sets up third-and-long.
- Third-and-9 from the Tampa Bay 12: Death, taxes, red-zone screens. Can’t fault the Lions for not running on third-and-9 with a little over a minute to go, but the screen game wasn’t working for them. This time, it was more self-inflicted than anything. Glasgow and Ragnow are in space blocking for Gibbs, but go to block the same player (David). Gibbs gets tackled by LB SirVocea Dennis for a gain of one. Well-designed play, poor execution.
- Fourth-and-8 from the Tampa Bay 11: Poor play design. LaPorta and Raymond are essentially clearing out. Zeitler allows pressure in the interior, Goff hesitates and checks down to Gibbs running a drag route. Gibbs is immediately tackled short of the first down for a turnover on downs. The Lions would get one more opportunity but fail to reach the end zone. Game over.
Takeaways
I came away somewhat more encouraged by the tape than what I saw live on Sunday. The Lions recorded a whopping 463 yards of offense and just 16 points. That’s hard to do, and remains an encouraging sign for the future.
In the meantime, a few areas worth discussing:
Campbell’s error on Drive No. 3: This loomed large. No way around it. Had that gone according to plan, the Lions would’ve had three more points and wouldn’t have needed a touchdown late in the game. These lapses are increasingly rare for Campbell, but they do still appear at times.
Play-calling: Early on, it felt like the Lions were overthinking things. On the very first red-zone series, they threw it three times and ran it once. The plays to get Gibbs in space in the passing game weren’t working against a defense like Tampa Bay’s, which is disciplined and sound. That’s where you might just have to lean into what you do best and run the ball.
Through two weeks, the Lions are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the most red-zone drives with 11, per TruMedia. They rank 28th in red-zone efficiency at 27.3 percent (3/11). They’ve thrown it roughly 58 percent of the time and have run it 42 percent of the time — an 18-13 split in 31 red-zone plays (second-most in the NFL). For reference, last year the Lions ran it 58 percent of the time in the red zone and threw it 42 percent. When they do run it in the red zone, their offensive rush EPA ranks eighth in the league. Meanwhile, Goff’s red-zone EPA per dropback on pass plays ranks 21st among qualified QBs. Flip that and you’re probably in better shape.
Interior pressure: There are certainly some decisions Goff wants back through two weeks, but he’s faced a ton of pressure from the interior. Per TruMedia, the Lions have allowed 29 pressures in two games (tied for fifth-most in the NFL), though their pressure rate of 33.3 percent ranks 14th. PFF credits eight pressures to Glasgow and six to Ragnow.
It hasn’t always been an issue in the red zone, but there have been some obvious instances where pressure (or the threat of it) affected the play in that area of the field. Goff has a tendency to feel pressure throughout a game when he gets some early, so the trickle-down effect could be a mental hurdle as well. That said, Ragnow is an All-Pro and Glasgow could still be adjusting to left guard after playing on the right side all of last year, so the hope, and maybe expectation, is that they round into form with time.
Timing: Though the numbers have been there from 20-to-20, it looks like Goff and Williams are still working to get on the same page in the red zone. Williams is tied for the team lead in red-zone route with 18 and has the most targets with 5. He’s only caught two of those for 10 yards. Still ironing out some things, which is natural. But that’s probably where you miss a guy Goff has built-in chemistry with like Josh Reynolds. Once Tim Patrick gets more up to speed, it’ll give the Lions another option in that tight area of the field. All about time on task.
Incorporating stars: When the Lions used Montgomery in the red zone, he was largely doing his job and getting downhill. He recorded four touches in the red zone and totaled 14 yards — including the team’s only touchdown. Against the Rams, Montgomery’s last rush attempt prior to overtime came with 12 minutes left in the third quarter. It feels like they get away from him for too long. Additionally, LaPorta has been a non-factor in the red zone. He’s run 17 red-zone routes and has just one target. He’s been used as a blocker and has drawn more attention from defenses to start the year, but the Lions will need to find ways to get the ball to him.
All this to say, a lot is fixable. Let things play out.
(Top photo of Jared Godd: Eamon Horwedel / Imagn Images)
