Hello, Houston Astros fans. Take solace in two things. First, you won’t see the Cincinnati Reds again this season. After absorbing a three-game sweep this week, Houston has now lost nine consecutive games against the Reds. The team has not won a game at Great American Ballpark since moving to the American League in 2013.
Second, the Astros still reside atop baseball’s worst division. For one day this week, they were even the only American League West team above .500, a byproduct of the Seattle Mariners’ continued spiral.
Twenty-two games remain for the Astros to solidify their playoff positioning and, with Kyle Tucker’s imminent return, show off a lineup that’s finally at full strength. Before that final stretch begins, let’s answer some fan questions.
What do you think of the odds of the Astros extending (Alex) Bregman and what would a contract like that look like for him? — Charles R.
Go back three years, Charles. Carlos Correa’s departure after the 2021 season is the event around which to base your thinking about retaining homegrown free agents.
Correa blossomed into a face of Houston’s franchise, its staunchest defender after the sign-stealing scandal and the team’s unquestioned leader. On multiple occasions, Correa said he wanted to be an “Astro for life.”
That the team didn’t make that happen prompts legitimate wonder whether they ever will. Yes, Jose Altuve has signed two extensions that should keep him in Houston for the remainder of his career, but neither deal is close to what Correa commanded in free agency or what Alex Bregman is expected to fetch this winter. Altuve also instructed his agent, Scott Boras, to ensure he stayed in Houston.
Neither Bregman nor Correa insisted as much to Boras. It’s not an admission they’d rather play elsewhere, but an acknowledgment of their interest in exploring an open market. Under owner Jim Crane, the Astros rarely win bidding wars when that is the case. The largest free-agent contract during Crane’s ownership tenure is Josh Hader’s five-year, $95 million pact last winter.
The Astros will have exclusive negotiating rights with Bregman for five days after the World Series. The six-year, $151 million extension Matt Chapman agreed to Wednesday — a deal negotiated by Boras — should serve as a starting point.
Bregman is a year younger than Chapman, boasts a higher career OPS+, and, according to Baseball Reference, has been worth 1.3 more wins above replacement across his career.
Bregman is now the best free-agent third baseman available this winter. Both he and Boras will seek a contract reflecting that. Nothing in the Astros’ past suggests they’re ready to give it.
Do you have a sense of how Joe Espada will line up his playoff rotation? — Andrew G.
Espada probably doesn’t even know, Andrew. Projecting a postseason rotation during the first week of September is impossible, especially without knowing whom the Astros will play or when their playoff run will begin. After Thursday’s 1-0 loss, Houston had a five-game lead in the American League West but sat five games back of the second seed.
Matchups are most important when planning a rotation, but before that, any initial discussion of playoff pitching plans must begin with this question: How consequential is the Astros’ final regular-season series against the Cleveland Guardians? Houston visits Progressive Field from Sept. 27 to 29. The first game of a potential American League Wild Card Series is Oct. 1.
If the Astros enter their series against Cleveland with a remote chance of attaining either the first or second seed in the American League, Espada and his two pitching coaches will have a fascinating conundrum. Securing a bye and avoiding a three-game series where anything is possible would seem advantageous. So would ensuring Houston’s best starters are available for a possible Wild Card Series.
Presuming the Astros want their pitchers to remain on regular rest, whoever starts the series opener against the Guardians would be unavailable to throw the first game of a Wild Card Series. The starter in the second game against Cleveland wouldn’t be on regular rest until Game 3 of a Wild Card Series — one that isn’t even guaranteed to be played.
Houston’s first priority must be winning the American League West. Three games at Minute Maid Park against the Seattle Mariners Sept. 23-25 could complete that task. It would behoove the club to throw its three most consistent starters in that series, watch what happens around the league during its off day Sept. 26 and then sketch a plan for the days ahead.
If (Spencer) Arrighetti continues to be stellar and (Justin) Verlander does not get back to his April and May form, do you think the Astros will still include Justin in the playoff rotation, due to his future HOF pedigree, over Arrighetti? — William T.
Justin Verlander has a 6.75 ERA in three starts since returning from his neck injury. (Maria Lysaker / Getty Images)
William submitted this question before Arrighetti allowed nine earned runs and collected two outs during a disastrous start Wednesday against the Reds. It’s one awful outing amid a stretch of superb ones, but does illustrate the danger of indulging small samples during a long season.
The reactions to Verlander’s post-injury return have been outsized, perhaps due to some prolific performances by the five other starters around him. Verlander and manager Joe Espada have acknowledged this is akin to a spring training buildup.
Monday’s miserable outing against the Reds was, in Verlander’s words, like his third spring training start. If any Astros pitcher has earned the benefit of patience while returning from a two-month layoff, it is a nine-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young Award winner. Verlander will receive that runway.
None of these past three starts has been vintage Verlander, but acting as if they were all total disasters is misguided. He held a dangerous Red Sox lineup to two runs and four hits across five innings during his first start back. Six days later, one misplaced curveball against the Philadelphia Phillies ruined an otherwise fine night.
A 6.75 ERA across Verlander’s past three starts can’t be hidden. A 3.66 FIP and .367 batting average on balls in play suggest some misfortune is to blame, but walking six batters, surrendering 19 hits and generating 39 whiffs on 113 swings is all self-induced trouble.
Make no mistake, though: At this moment, Verlander would not be the Astros’ first or second choice to start a playoff game. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are. Yusei Kikuchi is pitching well enough to be Houston’s third choice, though the team has seemed reticent to let him face a lineup three times.
Thoughts on offseason priorities? Do they look at re-signing Kikuchi? Corner OF? — Cole S.
Upgrading the lineup has to be Houston’s foremost priority, Cole. Finding stability at first base, possibly replacing Bregman at third base and acquiring a corner outfielder should all be on general manager Dana Brown’s radar.
Doing so in what should be a thin position-player market will make Brown’s task more difficult. No, the Astros aren’t going to seriously pursue Juan Soto, but should be among multiple teams courting Anthony Santander, the switch-hitting slugger having a prolific platform year.
Anthony Santander hit a grand slam against the Astros on Aug. 23. (Maria Lysaker / Getty Images)
Santander, who has multiple relationships with Astros players and coaches, could supply depth at both left field and first base. Re-signing Bregman would maintain stability in the clubhouse and at a position where Houston doesn’t have an internal heir apparent. If Bregman gets a bigger deal elsewhere, finding a competent third baseman — even if just a stopgap on a one-year deal — should be a focus.
As it pertains to Kikuchi, he is represented by Boras, who almost always urges his clients to test the open market. Kikuchi will be 33 and firmly in the middle of a top-heavy starting pitching market that will be headlined by fellow Boras clients Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell along with Jack Flaherty.
Houston is scheduled to return Valdez, Brown, Ronel Blanco and Arrighetti from its current rotation. Luis Garcia should be ready to contribute, too, and Lance McCullers Jr.’s status remains a mystery. Adding another veteran might be advantageous. The team could do worse than Kikuchi, who seems to enjoy his new teammates and, obviously, the instruction he’s getting.
What’s the plan with Blanco? How many more starts till he’s in the pen? — Daniel S.
Espada told reporters in Cincinnati that the Astros will skip Blanco’s next turn in the rotation, Daniel.
Given that Blanco has already thrown 148 1/3 innings — and Houston’s upcoming off day Monday — it should come as no surprise. Blanco only converted into a full-time starter last season and has never thrown more than 125 innings in any professional season.
Blanco is deep into uncharted territory and it might behoove the Astros to give him some regular-season run out of the bullpen — where he’s most likely to contribute in the postseason.
What’s going on with (Jeremy) Peña’s defense of late? — Michael S.
It’s not been good, Michael. Peña has made seven errors across his past 23 games and should’ve been charged with another Wednesday when an Amed Rosario “double” clanked off his glove.
Espada and his coaching staff have voiced unequivocal support for Peña, who is two years removed from winning a Gold Glove. All of his defensive metrics have fallen since. He’s worth minus-4 outs above average and minus-3 defensive runs saved. Both of those numbers were positive in each of the previous two seasons.
Peña is still capable of making excellent plays. A jump throw saved Valdez’s no-hit bid last week against the Kansas City Royals. He made a similar play this week in Cincinnati, but the inconsistencies are glaring. Espada is not concerned about fatigue, nor does he think a day off would benefit Peña. The team believes in Peña’s track record.
What is in the team’s best interest in not revealing the truth concerning Tucker’s injury sooner? — Casey W.
There is none, Casey, unless the club thinks potentially agitating a budding superstar and damaging his public perception is in its best interest. If you discover one, please email me at crome@theathletic.com.
(Top photo of Alex Bregman: Logan Riely / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
