You’re not supposed to need help setting a Week 1 lineup, are you? This is the time of roses and sunshine, unicorns and pots of gold; nothing but touchdowns and endless points per reception. Still, it’s my job to make sure that no decision goes unchecked, and no sneaky bias enters your lineup. There’s one dynamic in particular that I see giving some fantasy managers trouble in Week 1.
More than ever, the 2024 preseason fantasy football community drafted best ball teams and focused on building rosters that could win big prizes in December. This momentum carried over into managed redraft leagues with various rookies and backups flying off draft boards, often ahead of their established starters. As I’ve written many times, I love a new fantasy player, and getting excited about untarnished possibility is right up my alley. So, I have to work extra hard to reign it in and be patient, because the guys who are going to be so important to winning in three months might not be the guys who are important to winning this week. Winning early in the season creates a cushion you can continue to work on as you build for the final victory, but you’ve got to do what’s right now in order to reach that point.
Generally, I like to share my thoughts on a few players who you might be tempted to overthink — a star with a bad matchup, an auto-start coming back from an injury with an uncertain workload, etc. — as well as a few fringe players who could be sneaky starts for those of us who just can’t help but tinker with a perfectly fine lineup. But this week I’ve got to lead off with one guy it’s ok to overthink:
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN
Chase is still holding out, which means he hasn’t practiced as of this writing. The Bengals face the Patriots at home Sunday, where they are the week’s biggest favorites (minus-9 points). Chase’s absence is baked into that spread already, and the most casual football observers can see that winning this matchup should be a walk in the park for Cincy. All of this together has me very concerned about starting Chase in 10-12 team leagues even if he gets paid before Sunday. You don’t give someone upwards of $140 million dollars just to throw caution to the wind and thrust him immediately into a high usage role in what might be the easiest game of the year for the Bengals. Yes, he’s a professional. Yes, he should be staying in shape outside of team practices. Yes, he’s capable of doing great things in a limited showing. But do you have someone like Terry McLaurin, Nico Collins or George Pickens who doesn’t have his concerns? Opportunity is often a bigger factor than sheer talent in our game.
Trendy Running Backs
Sure, you were super excited to be the person who snagged Jaylen Wright, Trey Benson, Chase Brown, Rico Dowdle, Blake Corum or Bucky Irving. These guys are hyped for their sleeper potential… should something happen.The most likely scenario in Week 1 is that these guys are sleeping, literally, on the bench. Each has a solid starter (or two) in front of him and should see minimal, if any, work in his first game of the season. Contain your excitement until the thing that makes your draft pick great comes to pass.
Boring Running Backs
The flip side of the above point is that guys like Jerome Ford, Zack Moss, Joe Mixon, Kyren Williams, James Conner, Raheem Mostert and Chuba Hubbard are going to get a lot of early-season work. They (excepting Ford) offer high-volume touches in fantasy-friendly matchups this week. Outside of Williams, they’re not players who evoke a lot of enthusiasm in the fantasy community — not flashy, just stable producers. Consider that Mixon handled 88 percent of the Bengals’ rushing attempts inside the five-yard line last year, while Williams and Mostert were both over 71 percent. Hubbard and Conner ranked in the Top 15 for carrying the highest percentage of the team’s rushing attempts (57 and 62 percent, respectively). If you’ve rostered these guys, you’ve got to be starting them this week (in normal sized leagues).
Tight End
If you punted tight end, meaning you don’t have one of Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Mark Andrews, George Kittle or Evan Engram on your fantasy squad, it’s a fun position to tinker with. You could go with rookie Brock Bowers against the Chargers, Taysom Hill facing Carolina or come out swinging with Tyler Conklin or Colby Parkinson, both trendy candidates for positive regression this year. Basically, if you punted TE, the rest of your lineup should be rock solid and you can afford to take a swing here.
(Top photo of Ja’Marr Chase: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY)
