Putin is downplaying the significance of the incursion while buying time to mount a response more than three weeks after Ukraine broke through Russia’s defenses and seized about 450 square miles of territory.
And while a senior U.S. intelligence official said it’s “certain” that Russia would launch a counter-offensive in Kursk, analysts say Putin is taking his time.
“Putin is a very risk averse individual. He is extremely calculated, and he oftentimes really prefers not to make urgent, rash political decisions that would specifically impact the health of his regime,” said Kateryna Stepanenko, the Russia deputy team lead and analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
Stepanenko said Putin is working to downplay the significance of Ukraine’s attack, the first time Russia’s sovereignty has been violated since World War II.
Putin maintains overwhelming support among the Russian public, but Ukraine’s Aug. 6 offensive into Russia marked a low point in public sentiment.
Russia on Monday launched a devastating air campaign against Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure with reportedly more than 100 missiles and a similar number of drones affecting more than half the country. At least four people were killed, more than a dozen injured and damaging homes, the electrical grid and water facilities.
Fears around mobilization have increased among a representative sample of the Russian population, according to polling released Friday by the Russia-based Levada center.
Putin is putting focus on the patriotism of Russian military volunteers and playing up Russian military gains in the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.
But Jonathan Teubner, at FilterLabs.AI, tracked negative sentiment toward Putin over the past few weeks among media in some regions where Russia has recruited soldiers and where military production has increased.
“There’s a lot of speculation, a lot of things we don’t know about how the Russian power system really functions, but we do know Putin is responsive to popular dissatisfaction,” Teubner said.
Read the full report at TheHill.com.
