Amid the dog days of summer and increased workloads as postseason races heat up, high-leverage results become more scrutinized and substantial in their impact on the standings. Although some roles remain fluid, recent situations in flux may be stabilizing. Manuel Rodríguez has emerged as the primary save option for Tampa Bay, recording a save in two of his past four appearances. Tyler Kinley replaced an injured Victor Vodnik (biceps) in typical Rockies fashion, securing a save in a clean outing and not recording an out in his appearance the next day. Kinley remains the preferred save option going forward, just weigh the ratio risk a reliever in Coors presents.
There are also some veteran relievers struggling in recent outings. David Bednar suffered his seventh loss and a sixth blown save in his most recent appearance during his team’s meltdown against the Cubs. He’s not been the same pitcher since returning from his in-season oblique injury, and his manager would not comment on his role after the game. Edwin Díaz has allowed a home run in his past two contests on hanging sliders, including Corbin Carroll’s go-ahead grand slam. Robert Suarez has been terrific for the Padres this season, but he’s given up a run in five of 11 games in August, including a walk-off loss on Wednesday in St. Louis.
There have been multiple changes in our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities.
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Closer Concerns
David Bednar (PIT): Although he was not the only reliever who struggled during Wednesday’s loss against the Cubs, he receives my focus based on his role as the closer. He allowed three hits, five earned runs, and two walks (one intentional) during his seventh loss and sixth blown save. It’s been noted previously in my recaps that he’s struggled since returning from his in-season oblique injury. In his 16 games since July 12, he’s recorded four losses while converting seven of 10 save opportunities with a 2.04 WHIP over 15.2 innings. Caught between a rock and a hard place, his manager must decide how he’s deployed over the final four-plus weeks, with his job also on the line. Here are his updated splits by pitch chart, displaying his results before and after his time on the injured list, plus last year’s results as a comparison:
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Edwin Díaz (NYM): After his blown save in Arizona, the Mets closer suggested his slider mechanics are “off,” and he’s landing closer to third, leaving his slider in the strike zone. Expecting the same results as 2022 for the closer would be unrealistic. However, his slider has produced over 20 percent fewer whiffs (per Statcast) this season. Although his hard-hit percentage has dropped, he’s allowed five home runs on the pitch compared to one in 2022. There’s time for a strong finish, but time may be running out on a push for the postseason. Here are his splits by pitch this year versus 2022:
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Robert Suarez (SD): One believes part of the reason the Padres built a “superpen” at the trade deadline was to insulate the workload for its closer, Robert Suarez. Every inning pitched this year adds to his already career-high 53 innings. On Wednesday, he suffered a walk-off loss, his third outing in four days. He’s given up a run in his past two appearances and five of 11 games in August. His inflated .343 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will normalize, but fantasy managers must note his 1.36 WHIP and 13 K-BB percentage through 10.1 innings this month. The good news is that his 3.00 SIERA sits below his 4.35 ERA, but less contact would be appreciated through the end of the season, along with slightly less work in non-save outings like the one he logged on Monday. Here is his rolling game chart, with eyes on the declining strikeout rate and uptick in contact allowed:
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Save Stashes
Ancillary Save Options
- Tanner Scott (SDP)
- John Schreiber (KCR)
- Cole Sands (MIN)
- Anthony Banda (LAD)
Ratio Relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. All relievers listed have a WHIP less than one, a SIERA less than 2.75, a K-BB percentage above 20, a strike percentage over 66 percent, and a swinging strike rate over 15 percent in the second half:
- A.J. Puk (ARI)
- Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
- Yuki Matsui (SD)
- Griffin Jax (MIN)
- Dylan Lee (ATL)
- Dennis Santana (PIT)
- Anthony Banda (LAD)
Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Statistical Credits (through August 28): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of Robert Suarez: Denis Poroy-USA TODAY)
