The American League Rookie of the Year race looks like it will go down to the wire. With five weeks remaining, there really isn’t a rookie who has separated himself from the field. Five are in the mix for the prestigious honor with Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil leading the way, followed by outfielder Colton Cowser of the Orioles, catcher Austin Wells of the Yankees, closer Mason Miller of the A’s and outfielder Wilyer Abreu of the Red Sox.
It’ll be fun to see who prevails, especially with four players from the same division (including two Yankees teammates) battling it out.
Two preseason favorites to win the award — Jackson Holliday of the Orioles and Wyatt Langford of the Rangers — remain in my top 10 list of AL rookies, but both are too far behind to catch the best of the bunch.
This ranking, like the corresponding one I did last week for the NL rookie race, is based solely on performance to date this season, not on prospect status or future projections. This is how I see the AL Rookie of the Year race as we near the final month of the season.
(WAR, OPS+ and ERA+ are according to Baseball Reference on Aug. 26.)
1. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees
Age: 26
Height: 6-2 Weight: 185
WAR: 2.9 ERA+: 123
Luis Gil has been the best AL rookie starting pitcher this year, going 12-6 with a 3.39 ERA over 24 starts. He has 144 strikeouts in 124 2/3 innings but also leads the majors with 66 walks. He started the season by allowing two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his first 14 starts. He then had a three-start stretch in which he allowed 16 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings, but he overcame that hiccup and got back on track, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his next seven starts. Opposing batters are hitting .201 against his four-seam fastball, .182 against his changeup and .159 against his wipeout slider. He’s currently on the injured list with a lower back strain but could return in early September.
2. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
Age: 24
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-2 Weight: 220
WAR: 2.3 OPS+: 121
Colton Cowser leads the pack of AL position player rookies, mostly because of his power and defense. He’s hit 19 homers and 19 doubles with 62 runs scored and 57 RBIs. Defensively he ranks in the 96th percentile in fielding run value and in the 97th percentile in both outs above average (range) and arm strength. His slash line (.247/.323/.448) doesn’t stand out, but his power and defense have put him in position to possibly win this award.
3. Austin Wells, C, Yankees
Age: 25
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-2 Weight: 220
WAR: 2.0 OPS+: 114
I don’t think anyone in the game, including those in the Yankees front office, envisioned Wells becoming the team’s cleanup hitter as a rookie, but that’s what happened after starting catcher Jose Trevino went down with an injury. Wells has taken advantage of his opportunity, slashing .253/.343/.424 with 14 doubles, 10 home runs and 38 RBIs over 90 games and 316 plate appearances. He’s done a magnificent job defensively, ranking in the 75th percentile in blocks above average and in the 96th percentile in framing. He also deserves high marks for his game calling. With a strong final five weeks of the season, he has a legitimate chance to win this award.
Mason Miller has averaged 14.76 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.78 hits per nine. (Gerry Angus / USA Today)
4. Mason Miller, RHP, A’s
Age: 26
Height: 6-5 Weight: 200
WAR: 2.4 ERA+: 222
Miller is the best rookie closer in this class. He made the All-Star team and was as dominant as any pitcher in the game, breaking an All-Star Game record for hardest pitch with a 103.6 mph fastball when facing Trea Turner of the Phillies. On the season, he has posted a 1.80 ERA with 21 saves in 23 opportunities and 82 strikeouts in 50 innings. He ranks in the 100th percentile in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, Whiff% and K%. Opposing batters are hitting .137 against his fastball and .116 against his slider.
5. Wilyer Abreu, RF, Red Sox
Age: 25
Bats: L Throws: L
Height: 5-10 Weight: 215
WAR: 2.7 OPS+: 127
Wilyer Abreu surprisingly has been Boston’s top rookie, slashing .266/.336/.497 with 27 doubles, 14 home runs, 50 RBIs and seven stolen bases in nine attempts. Defensively, he’s been well above average, ranking in the 86th percentile in outs above average and in the 98th percentile in arm strength, rekindling memories of the cannon arm of former Red Sox right fielder Dwight “Dewey” Evans, who should be a Hall of Famer, by the way.
Ceddanne Rafaela makes a diving catch earlier this month. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)
6. Ceddanne Rafaela, SS/CF, Red Sox
Age: 23
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5-9 Weight: 165
WAR: 2.5 OPS+: 90
Among AL rookies, Rafaela is arguably the best athlete and defensive player. He has special defensive abilities at shortstop and in center field, and his quick-twitch athleticism makes him a must-watch every time he’s involved in a play. In April, the Red Sox signed Rafaela to an eight-year, $50 million deal that will likely save them tens of millions on the back end of the contract. Rafaela is batting .259 with only a .289 on-base percentage, but he’s hit 13 homers and stolen 17 bases. His sprint speed ranks in the 88th percentile and his arm strength is in the 94th percentile. I can’t wait for Rafaela to enter his prime years (ages 25-30) because I see him eventually joining the 30-30 club and playing in multiple All-Star games. His upside is ridiculous.
7. Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
Age: 22
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 225
WAR: 1.3 OPS+: 96
Langford was my preseason pick for AL Rookie of the Year but didn’t live up to my lofty expectations early, as he hit .238 in March/April with one home run and then hit .143 in May, when he spent time on the injured list with a right hamstring strain. He started to break out in June, batting .309 with three homers and 22 RBIs, but has mostly struggled since, slashing .216/.280/.351 in July and .234/.333/.313 in August.
8. Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Angels
Age: 22
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-4 Weight: 220
WAR: 1.5 OPS+: 103
Nolan Schanuel has reached base at a .348 clip while hitting 16 doubles and 12 homers and driving in 41 runs. He’s among the best in the league at squaring up the baseball (95th percentile, per Statcast) and doesn’t often chase out of the strike zone (92nd percentile). Defensively, he’s been below average, ranking in the 45th percentile in outs above average and in the 11th percentile in arm strength.
Colt Keith celebrates with his teammates after hitting a home run. (Brian Bradshaw Sevald / USA Today)
9. Colt Keith, 2B, Tigers
Age: 23
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-2 Weight: 211
WAR: 0.9 OPS+: 100
Colt Keith is slashing .266/.317/.398 with 14 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs, 52 RBIs and seven stolen bases in eight attempts. He got off to a slow start, batting .154 in 99 plate appearances in March/April, but rebounded in May, hitting a sparkling .342. He hit .220 in June but then had his best overall offensive month in July with a .322 average, .404 on-base percentage, seven home runs and 17 RBIs. Defensively, he’s shown above-average range and ranks in the 80th percentile in outs above average. He’s a plus runner but needs to improve overall as a base runner.
10. Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles
Age: 20
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 185
WAR: -0.3 OPS+: 59
Jackson Holliday entered the season as the top prospect in baseball and front-runner to win AL Rookie of the Year, but began his big-league career by going 2-for-34 with no extra-base hits, leaving him with an .059 batting average, a .111 on-base percentage and a demotion to the minors. However, since his return to the majors about a month ago, Holliday has five homers, 18 RBIs and a .716 OPS and has looked a lot more like the gifted prospect we know he is.
GO DEEPER
Ranking the top 10 NL rookies: Who will prevail in Rookie of the Year race?
(Top image: Luis Gil: Mark Blinch / Getty Images; Colton Cowser: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
