- Bitcoin’s MVRV pulled back to 1.7,4, a historical support level, signaling cooling profit realization.
- 88% of the Bitcoin supply was in profit as investors’ expectations shift.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin [BTC] has recorded significant gains, rising from a local low of $83k to a local high of $97k.
The recent price uptick has left most Bitcoin holders in profit. According to Glassnode data, 88% of the Bitcoin supply was in profit at press time.
This implies that both short-term and long-term holders are in profit, especially the cohort that acquired BTC from $94k and below.
Source: Glassnode
With the cohort in profit, losses are now concentrated among buyers in the $95K to $100K range.
As profit margins rise, Bitcoin has rebounded from its long-term mean of 75%, signaling a shift in investor expectations. As a result, the market is experiencing less capitulation.
This rebound reflects improving sentiment, indicating that demand remains strong enough to absorb profit-taking. This supports the case for a sustained price recovery.
In 2024, Bitcoin staged a strong comeback after retesting this mean at an average price of $60K from November to January.
Similarly, the current $76K to $95K range appears to be the bottom, where Bitcoin could potentially see another significant surge, based on past trends.
Source: Glassnode
With investor’s sentiments improving, the current holders are selling less Bitcoin. This was observed by Glassnode, noting that Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has pulled back to its long-term mean of 1.74.
Previously, this mean has been associated with the consolidation phase. As per the analysis, a pullback signals a cooling of unrealized gains, making it a key support level.
Source: CryptoQuant
Looking at Bitcoin’s Exchange Netflow, holders are not selling to realize profits despite recently recorded gains. With a realized price of around $93k, most holders are in a position to sell.
On the contrary, they are buying more. Netflow shows that BTC has recorded four days of negative flows out of seven days. This reinforces the idea that demand is absorbing profit realization.
Source: TradingView
What’s next for BTC
Bitcoin’s Average True Range (ATR) has fallen to 2.4K, indicating cooling market conditions with minimal upward or downward momentum. BTC continues to trade within a narrow range.
Historically, low ATR levels have preceded major breakouts. In November 2024, ATR dropped to 2.1K, triggering a Bitcoin rally to $108K.
With profit realization slowing, investor sentiment is shifting toward a bullish outlook. Holders in profit are selling less, while others continue to accumulate BTC, creating a balanced market scenario.
This dynamic strengthens Bitcoin’s chances of a breakout from the current consolidation.
If the market cooldown persists, BTC could reclaim $96K and possibly attempt a move toward $98K. However, if consolidation drags on, impatient holders may begin selling, potentially leading to a retracement to $92,900.