By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman
Only one series between geographic rivals features two of the last four franchises to win the Stanley Cup, and it’s not the Battle of Ontario.
For the third time in four seasons, the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are meeting in the playoffs. Given what we’ve seen over the last few months, it might be the best yet. And that’s saying something.
The odds
Unsurprisingly, the margins in this series are extremely thin. The Atlantic houses three elite teams and this matchup is exactly why winning the division is so crucial to going deep. Doing so avoids an early coin flip against one of those elite teams. Now, one of the league’s very best will be sent packing way too early. Tough.
This is a conference-final worthy matchup, a heavyweight tilt between two teams that the model believes to be among the three best in the league. It wouldn’t be a shock to see either side go all the way after surviving this matchup.
The Lightning hold the slightest of edges here (literally just two goals separate the two by Net Rating), with home ice and an injury to Aaron Ekblad adding to their side of the ledger. A stronger roster, home ice and a key injury to their opponent — and Tampa Bay’s chances are still just 53 percent. That’s how brutal this matchup is.
The numbers
After a lopsided Battle of Florida in Round 1 last year, this series is as close as it gets. Just two goals separate these two teams in Net Rating, the smallest margin of any series. Even the splits between offense and defense are incredibly close.
At five-on-five, the Panthers created slightly more offense this season, but the Lightning had more to show for it with the fourth-best GF/60 of 2.79. Tampa Bay’s finishing powered the team 12 goals above expected. Based on their shot quality, the Panthers failed to convert on about 29 goals; only the Predators fared worse.
The Lightning’s ability to score off the rush fueled their offense this season, which makes for an interesting stylistic matchup. The Panthers lean heavily on their forecheck and don’t allow their opponents to create much in transition. The Lightning don’t give up many chances back off the rush, either.
Both teams have their own defensive strengths, but the Panthers have the edge in shot and expected goal suppression. The Lightning’s goaltending made up for that in the regular season — these two teams conceded a matching rate of 2.09 GA/60.
Similar trends trickle into the special teams battle. The Panthers allowed fewer chances in short-handed situations, but Tampa Bay’s goaltending gave up a slightly lower rate of goals against. Both teams have a disruptive penalty kill that can generate some offense, too.
The in-state rivals also had matching expected goal rates on the power play of 9.56 xGF/60. The Lightning, again, just finished their chances at a higher clip.
The Big Question
Is Matthew Tkachuk healthy enough for more playoff heroics?
Matthew Tkachuk is an elite player in the regular season. But the playoffs are a different animal, and he rises to the occasion. He’s the type of player everyone wants on their side and no one should want to match up against. He drives play, is one of the most dangerous passers in the league, and brings a rat king energy that infuriates opponents.
Tkachuk was a game-breaker for the Panthers in a surprising run in 2023, and his absence was outright crushing in the Final. He was a difference-maker last spring on his path to the Stanley Cup. His combination of skill and disruptive energy gave Team USA a spark at the 4 Nations, too.
The injury sustained at the tournament ended Tkachuk’s regular season and had a ripple effect on the Panthers’ play down the stretch. The team’s scoring rate went from 2.55 GF/60 at five-on-five down to 1.80 post-4 Nations. The power play’s efficiency also dropped from 9.32 GF/60 to 8.15, and Tkachuk’s absence more than likely contributed to that.
But can he pick up where he left off in February?
There is a difference between being healthy enough to return in the regular season and to play in the postseason. Being healthy enough to be effective is a whole other level.
Just think of Mark Stone’s return last year in the playoffs and how restricted his movement looked. The same was true with Nikita Kucherov after missing the entire regular season in 2021; while he put up points in the Lightning’s championship run, many came while he was stationary on the power play. Even look at Tom Wilson, who took months to get his game back up to peak levels in the regular season after returning from ACL surgery.
Tkachuk is skating and days away from returning, but it isn’t clear what version the Panthers are getting. Will he be a shell of himself, back to his usual elite levels, or something in between? As much as a team can estimate, it can’t fully be answered until he takes the ice because nothing replicates game action. If he isn’t at his best, how long will it take him to get there? And will the Panthers have enough time to wait it out?
The Panthers haven’t seen what this team looks like at full strength yet since the deadline. But as deep as this group is, the lineup looks a lot different with a healthy Tkachuk in the top six, especially against a team with as much elite talent as the Lightning.
If Tkachuk can return to his true value, he will bring a plus-16 Net Rating that ranks second in this series, only to Kucherov. If he returns at only 50 percent capacity, that drops to a plus-two. Against a lesser opponent, the Panthers might be able to get by. But the Lightning have five players with at least a plus-10 Net Rating; if Tkachuk falls below that, Florida will only have two. That would drop the Panthers’ odds in this series down to 41 percent.
The X-factor
Can Yanni Gourde still be a playoff nightmare?
Would Tampa Bay have assembled its mini-dynasty without Gourde? Maybe, maybe not. Having him around, though, certainly made things easier; Gourde was particularly good in 2019, when he had 19 points and served as one of the most substantive members of the Lightning’s supporting cast. He added to his rep with the Kraken in 2023, when he put up 13 points in 14 games and helped lead them to a shocking Round 1 win over Colorado.
Now he’s back in Tampa Bay and, perhaps, set to start the playoffs on a line with Kucherov and Brayden Point. That’d be a surprise, but the possibility speaks to two things. The first is that he’s been pretty good — third on the team in five-on-five points per 60 since they (re)acquired him from Seattle at the deadline. All but one of those are assists, but he’s been at least generating chances; his 0.96 individual scoring chances per 60 is more in that span than every Lightning forward outside of Kucherov and Nick Paul.
The second: the Lightning need him to tap into some of that 2019-20 magic. Gourde has helped the big guns before, and now he’s tasked with doing it once more.
The rosters
At the start of the season, it seemed clear that the Lightning would again be one of the league’s most top-heavy teams. That sounds more negative than it’s meant to; any team with scoring champs, 40-goal scorers and two-way menaces on the top two lines is setting the bar high. The question, in October and today, is whether the gap is a bit too wide.
Nikita Kucherov’s output dipped a bit this year; turns out scoring 144 points in consecutive seasons is tough, and he could only muster 121. He remains a remarkable player. In most ways, he was a better five-on-five player this season than last; he had more goals (24 to 21), only six fewer points (61 to 67), and unlike last year, a positive Defensive Net Rating.
Jake Guentzel was the player the Lightning hoped he’d be, a major upgrade on what they were likely to get from Steven Stamkos. He’s a strong producer who can play with other stars, and he adds some defensive value to the mix.
Anthony Cirelli is one of the league’s true two-way centers. No Lightning forward plays tougher minutes. No Lightning forward has stronger defensive impacts. He also scored as many five-on-five goals as Connor McDavid. Hagel, his linemate, is an even bigger offensive contributor, finishing 11th in the NHL in five-on-five points per 60 (2.75) and as one of the league’s best players on the rush.
Those guys, in other words, are all great. Tampa Bay’s challenge remains getting championship-caliber play from the rest of their forwards. Oliver Bjorkstrand, their non-Gourde attempt to address their middle six, was less productive and is week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Third-line center Nick Paul has some defensive utility and pops in some goals, but the Lightning’s offensive play — perhaps due to his linemates — dips a lot when he’s on the ice.
Beyond them, there’s not much. Gage Goncalves, Mitchell Chaffee and Luke Glendening give up a ton while not moving the needle offensively. Conor Geekie, 20, is back from the AHL and might be an option, but he didn’t do much before his demotion. Tampa typically dresses 11 forwards for a reason; if you’re going to lean that heavily on your best forwards, you might as well dress an extra defenseman.
Defensively, Victor Hedman remains a beast. He was ninth among league defensemen in average Game Score and eighth in Offensive Rating, and his defensive impacts were completely in line with the other defensemen in his class. J.J. Moser is a competent partner. What’s made the Lightning’s blue line truly click back into shape, though, is Ryan McDonagh’s return. He’s back, along with Erik Cernak, to eat the toughest blue-line minutes in the league and free up Hedman to be Hedman.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is back to being Andrei Vasilevskiy. He leads the league’s starters in save percentage (.929) since the 4 Nations break and is sixth with more than 12 goals saved above expected. His play, maybe more than anything else about the Lightning, should concern the rest of the league.
The Panthers can’t compete with what Tampa has at the top of the forwards group, but they make it halfway. When Tkachuk is himself, he’s a one-of-one combo of skill, production and physicality. Reinhart couldn’t duplicate his 57-goal season as a chance creator or finisher, but expecting him to do that would’ve been unfair; he remains an elite goal-scorer with uncommon defensive value along the wing. Barkov is Barkov. The only things that could stop him from winning another Selke are a) Reinhart and b) the 15 games he missed along the way. No center in the league plays against tougher offensive competition.
Some of what happens to Florida hinges on whether Carter Verhaeghe snaps back into his standard playoff form. He spent the regular season on a cold streak, going from 34 goals to 20 despite similar underlying numbers. It’s certainly hard to believe they won’t get more from Marchand, who had four points in 10 games as he was getting acclimated. Sam Bennett might’ve just had the best offensive year of his career, scoring 25 goals and putting himself in position to score even more. Anton Lundell has become a highly competent third-line center and showed signs of meshing with Marchand down the stretch. Evan Rodrigues, once again, scored between 12 and 19 goals. Eetu Luostarinen has defensive value. That’s all quality depth.
If you want to pick nits, things get a little fuzzy for the Panthers at the bottom of the forward lineup; Mackie Samoskevich popped a bit in his first full NHL season (15 goals), but postseason play seems like it could be an adjustment.
On the blue line, Gustav Forsling was once again a top-10 defensive defenseman in the league, and he adds enough offense to be a true No. 1. Aaron Ekblad, whose PED suspension ends after Game 2, still belongs on a top pair. Seth Jones hasn’t been great thus far with Florida; that’s where Ekblad’s absence has hurt most. At full strength, the Panthers have a solid group. Getting there is the issue.
In net, we know what Sergei Bobrovsky is capable of at this time of the year. He wasn’t at his best in the regular season, but rounded into shape post-4 Nations, putting up a .913 save percentage and saving more than nine goals above expected, seventh-best among starters.
The key matchup
Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel vs. Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart
This year’s Selke race was dominated by the two elite defensive duos from the state of Florida, and it’s only fitting that they’ll have the opportunity to go head-to-head in the opening round. Voting is done before the playoffs begin, but this battle is begging for an exception to be made: the winner is crowned 2025’s best defensive forward.
Barkov is the current gold standard for defensive play up front. Last year’s Selke winner looks likely to go back-to-back and his partnership with Reinhart has been a nightmare for opposing forwards. The pair earned 60 percent of the goals and expected goals this season, allowing just 1.82 xGA/60. That duo felt unbeatable.
Cirelli and Hagel, though, have shown they belong in the same conversation. Their line: 59 percent of the goals and 62 percent of the expected goals, though with slightly higher against numbers.
This will be the defining matchup of the series, a true battle for defensive dominance. While Florida has the better duo, it’s worth noting that Tampa Bay’s held the edge in head-to-head minutes this season. For the Lightning to defeat the champs, they’ll need a repeat performance when it counts.
The bottom line
The Battle of Florida is always a must-watch, but this year’s series looks especially promising. It’s a star-powered meeting of in-state rivals, who are as closely matched as it gets. The best outcome is simple: a heated series that goes the distance.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo of Victor Hedman and Brad Marchand: Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images)