How did Week 11 shake up the potential 2025 NFL Draft order?
To get an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s projections. Mock projects the score for every game and the final winning percentage for every team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top 10 draft order, plus each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.
You can take a deeper dive into Mock’s playoff model here. And here’s the latest projected top 10 for April’s draft:
Projected top 10 (as of Nov. 19)
A few thoughts on this week’s projections from The Athletic draft expert Nick Baumgardner:
Welcome to the top 10 of our projected order, Cowboys — we think you’re going to hate it here.
This could be a tough spot for Dallas, depending on where things land. It’s pretty obvious the Cowboys need a running back, so they’ve been an easy early-process mock draft pairing for Ashton Jeanty. The Boise State dynamo is a legitimate first-round talent and will be a top-10 prospect on several NFL boards next spring. Jerry Jones, as we know, loves dynamos and running backs. Perfect fit, right?
Well …
The Cowboys are definitely heading toward a high Round 1 slot, but their arsenal of picks could be better. As of Wednesday, Dallas has only three selections in the first four rounds. This roster has needs all over the place defensively, still needs a repaired offensive line and has to find at least one more truly dynamic pass-catching option for quarterback Dak Prescott.
If Dallas winds up in the top 10 (and is honest with itself), it’ll be open for business immediately.
GO DEEPER
At 3-7, Cowboys faced with being ‘realistic’ and coming to terms that 2024 season is over
Another team on a hard slide right now. At the very least, this looks like another head-coaching restart, and we’ll see if general manager Ryan Poles — who hired Matt Eberflus two days after he got the job in 2022 — is back.
Nothing about this current situation is good. However, if the Bears decide to keep Poles, they have to make clear it’s a long-term collaboration that gives him a chance to see through some of these recent draft investments (Caleb Williams et al.). Otherwise, you’re going to have a GM on the hot seat making a top-10 draft pick, which rarely works as well as those in charge claim it will. Chicago’s remaining schedule is brutal, so we’ll surely find out soon which direction the franchise plans to take.
Meanwhile, Williams needs a new interior offensive line and maybe a tackle.
GO DEEPER
Can’t blame Caleb Williams for the Bears’ loss to the Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars’ job profile
The Jaguars are likely headed for a new start (again), too. If the Chicago job comes open, the chance to coach Williams obviously will make it a huge deal. However, do not overlook the Jacksonville job this offseason, despite the fact the Jags looked like a college team Sunday in Detroit.
This roster still has Trevor Lawrence, a young QB with elite physical tools who came into the league under one of the worst head coaches in NFL history (Urban Meyer). He’s since been working with Doug Pederson, who has struggled to maintain consistency alongside some of the front-office decisions made by Trent Baalke.
If the Jaguars restart properly — meaning they begin a search for a new GM first, then find a new head coach — this could be one of the most attractive jobs in football. There is quality young talent on offense and defence and a high pick incoming. Plus, as of now, Jacksonville has more 2025 draft capital than any other team.
The chance to make a big bounce back in short order is there if Jacksonville can get itself together in time to take advantage of it.
(Photo of CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)
