By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
Hockey is fueled by rivalries, and the NHL’s current playoff system exists to create more of them.
Think about it — there’s no surer way to guarantee that players (and fan bases) start disliking each other than by forcing divisional teams to meet in the postseason. Are those feelings starting to bubble up between the New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes? Maybe, maybe not — but playoff rematches are always fun, even when they’re a little one-sided.
For the second spring in a row, the Hurricanes’ playoff journey starts with the Islanders, who are hoping a new coach means a different result.
The odds
This is a very different series from 2023, a result of both teams moving in opposite directions.
Last year’s matchup looked closer than many expected thanks in part to Carolina missing Andrei Svechnikov and starting goalie Frederik Andersen. This year, they’re back — with a lot more help, too. This is the deepest version of the Hurricanes in their current era, which calls for a jump in projected Net Rating from plus-48 to plus-74.
As for the Islanders, it’s been a slow decline. While they gritted their teeth to make the playoffs, it’s difficult to say this year’s version is as strong as last year’s. Their projected Net Rating dropped from plus-28 to plus-18. That gap has turned what looked like a close series last year, at 61 percent, to this year’s most lopsided.
The Islanders thrive on disrespect, though, and they can make this series a battle. Still, the Hurricanes may be too difficult a hurdle to overcome.
The numbers
By the numbers, this is the most slanted series. The plus-56 differential between the Hurricanes and Islanders will likely lead the way in all eight matchups.
That gap starts with offense, which isn’t the biggest surprise, considering the Corsi Canes’ reputation and the Islanders’ quality-over-quantity strategy. Carolina shoots the puck at the highest rate in the league at five-on-five and has the quality to match, with the second-best expected goal generation. The problem is this team doesn’t convert on their chances enough. Bringing in Jake Guentzel helps, but doesn’t solve everything.
The Islanders don’t shoot the puck very often, but they’re in the top half of the league in expected goals thanks to their shot quality. New York tends to push play right to the net-front area to challenge opposing goalies.
Like the Islanders, the Canes are a heavy forechecking team. But unlike their opponent, they sprinkle in some rush chances to diversify their attack. Passing also sets these teams apart; both teams limit dangerous passes against, but the Islanders don’t generate many for themselves to counter that.
The Islanders have bounced back to become a much stronger defensive team in the second half, but they still have some trouble defending leads. They at least have support in net — it just has come from a more unexpected source.
The Islanders’ defense may be good, but Carolina’s is great. The Hurricanes remain one of the stingiest teams in the league and their goaltending has stabilized since a tough first stretch of the season.
While the Islanders might be able to keep things reasonably close at five-on-five, special teams looks to be a massive advantage for Carolina.
The big question
Is the Patrick Roy effect real and can it continue against Carolina?
When Lane Lambert was fired, the Islanders were seriously struggling in their own zone. The defensive identity that Barry Trotz instilled had faded over Lambert’s two seasons and its absence was glaring. The offense was not enough to balance it out, and the goaltending wasn’t masking it as much as it did last year.
The Islanders were bleeding shots against; only the San Jose Sharks were allowing a higher rate at five-on-five. Opponents were walking right into the zone and generating shots and scoring chances in transition. The Islanders were super vulnerable in both circles and the net-front area, and were struggling to hold leads, which led to numerous collapses and losses.
While some of those bad habits still peak through, a lot has changed since Roy took over. There have been some line changes and tweaks in goalie deployment, but tactical changes in the defensive end have made a major difference, including the shift to more man-to-man coverage for a hybrid system.
The Islanders have worked on their shot suppression at five-on-five, but the most noticeable change is how the team is limiting quality chances against. Under Roy, the Islanders are a lot more stout against rush chances, turning an outright weakness into a strength. New York isn’t allowing opponents to just feast in the net-front area or circles anymore. The Islanders protect the middle of the ice a lot better and are giving their goalies some of the support they were missing in the first half. Plus the team isn’t as passive when getting out of its own zone, either.
Since Roy took over, the Islanders are sixth in the league in expected goals suppression, allowing just 2.37 per 60 against at five-on-five — an improvement of 0.45 from the Lambert era. The penalty kill isn’t perfect, but even that is incrementally better. The results are clear both on a team level and on an individual basis among most defensemen.
That same impact hasn’t been felt offensively, though. The Islanders have created less under Roy and are just converting on their chances at a higher rate. At the very least, the Islanders look like they are putting more pressure on opponents with their forecheck and are relying less on shots from the point.
The Roy effect has been real for the Islanders thanks to some offensive sacrifices leading to big defensive changes. And those improvements are a key reason why they are in the playoffs after such a disappointing start to the season.
Can it continue against the Hurricanes? It’s going to have to if the Islanders have any shot in this series, considering how overwhelming the Hurricanes’ offense can be. Carolina is stout in its own zone, which New York is going to have to try to match. That means leaning on tactical adjustments from Roy and trying to maintain defensive stability — especially when playing with a lead.
The question is going to be whether the Roy effect is enough, or whether the coach has taken the roster to its limits. If he can be adaptable — unlike Lambert, who contributed to those early season spirals — and continue making changes on the fly, he may have a further impact on the team and better their chances. The Roy effect may make this a closer series than currently dictated.
The X-factor
Who starts in net for the Islanders?
At a few different points, the Islanders looked, for lack of a better term, “cooked.” They started 5-6-5, rebounded a bit, then opened 2024 by dropping 15 of 21. As recently as March, they’d lost six straight. Aside from the mediocrity of the Metropolitan Division, what should’ve stopped folks from bailing on them entirely was the quality of their goaltending. Ilya Sorokin is too good to discount.
Lo and behold, they made the playoffs (with a few games to spare) and the goalie indeed played a gigantic part in the stretch run. It wasn’t Sorokin, though; he made just a few starts after March 24. Semyon Varlamov led the way, putting up a .939 save percentage and winning six of seven starts during a run that pushed the Islanders into third place in the Metro. In that span, he saved 6.5 goals more than expected — better than every goalie in the league besides Jake Oettinger.
For now, the net seems to be Varlamov’s, and that’s as it should be. The kicker is that he was outplaying Sorokin even before his streak. The Islanders can plan to roll with him, then turn to their Vezina finalist backup as needed. The Model does prefer Sorokin, but there isn’t a huge difference between the two given how Varlamov has improved his game lately. The Islanders have two very strong options.
The rosters
For years, the Hurricanes’ playoff previews have followed a similar script. Great depth, strong defense, a reliable system that leads to oodles of chances … and a lack of high-end scoring talent at the top of the lineup, if we’re grading on the curve of primetime Cup contenders. Call it whatever you want; a while back, we settled on “oomph.”
Last season, it looked like Carolina had addressed the problem in a meaningful way. Then injuries to Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty ruined the plan. At the deadline, they made their most obvious set of “all in” moves in years, acquiring 40-goal winger Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh and erstwhile top-six center Evgeny Kuznetsov from Washington. There’s your “oomph.”
Guentzel’s addition has changed the dynamic for Carolina. His 5.0 points per 60 since joining the team on March 6 hasn’t just led Carolina — it’s fifth in the league in that span, behind Nikita Kucherov, Connor McDavid, Artemi Panarin and Steven Stamkos. He and Sebastian Aho have meshed fantastically; in about 190 minutes together, Carolina has scored 12 goals, allowed just three and controlled more than 60 percent of the expected goals, shot attempts and high-danger chances. Seth Jarvis is the “other guy” on that line, and we’re using heavy air quotes for that characterization. He’s fully broken out in his third NHL season, scoring 33 times and bringing significant defensive value to the lineup.
One of the byproducts of Guentzel’s addition: Svechnikov has been bumped to the second line. He finished the regular season on a decent note, including with a run of six points in four games — and it was necessary. In the 12 games before that, spanning March 12 to April 4, he had three points in 12 games and the worst expected goals share on the Hurricanes (40 percent).
Ironically, the Hurricanes’ down-roster scoring has taken a bit of a hit. Teuvo Teravainen is back to his normal, productive self, with 2.5 points/60, but Martin Necas hasn’t followed up his 71-point breakout in 2022-23, putting up just 11 points in his last 23 games. Jordan Staal and Jack Drury, currently Carolina’s middle-six centers, have significant defensive value — particularly Staal, even at 35 — but neither produces offense at an ideal rate. Jesperi Kotkaniemi has seemingly regressed enough to be a healthy scratch at times down the stretch. That’s part of the reason Carolina rolled the dice on Kuznetsov, and while it was a worthwhile gamble, it hasn’t yet paid off. In his first 19 games with Carolina, he had seven points and the worst expected goal share on the team and had started to see fourth-line minutes.
Part of the reason the Hurricanes can weather volatility in their forward group — and remember, they won 17 of 21 games after the deadline — is a blue line featuring above-average (or better) players relative to every slot: Brent Burns remains a legit No. 1, and the presence of partner Jaccob Slavin mitigates any age-related dip in his game; their second pair is Brady Skjei (who led Carolina’s defense in points) and Brett Pesce; and their third pair features Dmitry Orlov, the best defenseman to hit free agency last summer. Carolina still defends its blue line more aggressively than any team in the league.
Andersen, back in a major way after missing time with a blood clot, is Carolina’s likely Game 1 starter. Since returning on March 7, he’s fourth in the league in save percentage (.951) and first in goals saved above expected (14.6). The Hurricanes have few holes and it’s why they’re currently tabbed as The Team To Beat.
On paper, not a ton has changed for the Islanders; they’re rolling out many of the same guys we’ve gotten accustomed to seeing over the years, though some of the combinations have been shuffled.
One of the biggest reasons to believe that they can pull this off: Mathew Barzal is a point-per-game player for the first time since 2017-18. Brock Nelson is an asset as the second-line center and leads the Islanders in five-on-five points. The fact he has just 43 is a problem, but he’s the player in the top six who comfortably outperforms his spot in the lineup.
Since Roy took over, Nelson, Hudson Fasching and Kyle Palmieri are the team’s top three in points/60, both overall and at five-on-five. That’s encouraging stuff from Palmieri in particular; he’d missed significant chunks of the last two seasons.
The third line is three guys you’ve heard of who are signed to long-term deals. They could be better, and they could be worse. Pierre Engvall heated up a bit down the stretch. The big change to the bottom six, of course, is that Casey Cizikas is no longer on a line with Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck. Those two are still fourth-liners, providing a bit of defensive value that’s negated (and then some) by a total lack of offense.
On defense, Noah Dobson’s development into a legit No. 1 has continued. He does tons of work on puck retrievals and exits the zone at an elite rate, which helped lead to a 60-assist season. He was second only to Roman Josi among defensemen in primary assists and top-10 at the position in points. Dobson is day to day with an upper-body injury and the road gets much harder if he’s out for any period; his likely pair with Alex Romanov earned 64 percent of the goals this season.
If the Islanders can get the vintage version of the Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock pair, their top four will be a legitimate strength in this series. The duo has been below 50 percent in both expected and actual goals percentage this season, though.
The key matchup
Sebastian Aho vs. Bo Horvat
When it comes to lopsided series, roster differences are usually plain to see. Sebastian Aho is a center any contender would be comfortable with at the top of their lineup. Bo Horvat isn’t.
That’s no slight at Horvat, who would be an elite option as the second-in-command (as Brock Nelson is on this very team). It’s just that the No. 1 center on a Cup contender is the highest possible bar to clear in hockey — and Aho does it for Carolina. He scored 89 points this year to Horvat’s 68 and earned 65 percent of the goals to Horvat’s 55.
The two are just on different levels. While they likely won’t be directly matched up against each other often (last year it was 27 percent of five-on-five minutes), how they comparatively fare will play a big role in determining which way this series goes.
That edge likely belongs to Aho who has also shown a penchant for big-game ability in past playoffs. If things go as expected here with Carolina’s star shining brighter, the Islanders will have to make up ground elsewhere.
The bottom line
If any team has the potential to do some damage now that they’re in the playoffs, it’s the Islanders. But that won’t be easy against a contender like the Hurricanes.
Carolina likes its group for a reason. With a bona fide goal scorer in the mix, the Hurricanes should be the team to beat.
References
How these projections work
How these projections performed last season
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
