Heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the St. Louis Blues were 25-26-5, eight points out of a playoff spot with an extra game played. In order to match Vancouver’s 94-point pace, the Blues would need 39 points over their final 26 games — a 123-point pace.
With two games to spare, the Blues did it. It’s one of the most incredible turnarounds I’ve witnessed in this sport.
Genuine question: What would you give the odds of that happening? Try to eliminate hindsight bias from your mind knowing that St. Louis already did it and just picture a below-.500 team pulling that off. It feels as if it should be almost impossible, and yet the Blues did it anyway. Our odds at the 4 Nations break: 1.1 percent.
That was probably too low, I’ll admit, but the team’s “real odds” couldn’t have been much higher given the hole the Blues were in and the amount of runway they had left. Whether it’s 1 percent, 5 percent or 10 percent, those odds tell a story of just how amazing the Blues have been over the last two months. How amazing they had to be just to make it this far.
Consider this: A 110-point pace, a miraculous run itself, probably wouldn’t have been enough. That would’ve left the Blues at 90 points, just three more than the Flames need over their final five games or five more than the Canucks need in their final four. It would’ve been tight, but it probably wouldn’t have been enough.
The Blues had to be perfect — and they almost were. Since the 4 Nations break, they’ve gone 18-3-2 (!), and perhaps even more impressive is that they are 13-2-1 without premier shutdown defender Colton Parayko. The Blues’ form over the last two months has been marvelous. It’s the type of run that gets you hooked on sport.
While it was difficult to see a turnaround of this substantial magnitude coming, it was a lot easier to see that the team was turning a corner under Jim Montgomery. I wrote as much with colleague Jeremy Rutherford in January, noting that the team’s underlying numbers showed a stark improvement under its new coach.
Despite a just OK 11-8-3 record at the time of writing, the Blues were starting to show they had a roster that could be competitive night in and night out — they just needed a bit more consistency. They got it, and that’s turned them into a dominant force. Since Montgomery was hired, the Blues’ xG has improved to 51.2 percent with a goals percentage of 59.3 percent, which ranks second in the NHL.
Perhaps there’s a bit of luck there, but Montgomery was also able to get the most out of the Bruins’ xG for two full seasons. From 2022 to 2024, the Bruins led the league with 60.5 percent of actual goals, 8.2 percentage points higher than their 52.3 percent xG rate. That tracks with what Montgomery has gotten out of this Blues team so far — we’ll see if it continues at that magnitude.
It’s not just the coach, though — it’s the players executing. Robert Thomas has been the leader, elevating his game to a whole new level since the 4 Nations break (and perhaps showing why he belongs on Team Canada in 2026). In 23 games, Thomas has 34 points, fueled by an absurd 27 assists. The Blues have outscored opponents 24-9 in his minutes, and his average Game Score of 1.79 is the fourth-best mark in the league. He’s been incredible — all while taking on the team’s toughest minutes.
For the season, Thomas is now pacing for 93 points and a plus-15.3 Net Rating. Those are franchise-player numbers and his leap to that level is part of what’s changed the math around St. Louis’ contention window.
Before the season, there were questions about St. Louis’ top end and whether the core was good enough to contend. Now — under Montgomery’s tutelage and after a rocking two-month run — we’re starting to get answers. Promising answers.
After a few dormant seasons as a team that looked unlikely to do much, the Blues look like they can contend again. They look like a team to fear again. They look like they’re back.
16 stats
1. Home-run offer sheets
It’s been brought up countless times, but as we near season’s end, I think St. Louis’ offer-sheet spectacle deserves some finality. The dual offer sheets to Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg were an absolute masterclass and could not have worked out better.
Before the season, I expected Holloway to be a solid middle-six contributor and was puzzled by the Oilers not matching his offer sheet in particular. As for Broberg, not matching made sense given the price tag, Edmonton’s logjam on the left side and his lack of track record. I was more skeptical about Broberg’s ability to defend given how sheltered he had been with Edmonton — though his pedigree offered intrigue.
Before the season, Holloway’s projected Net Rating was minus-1.1, third-line caliber. Broberg’s was minus-2.6, third-pair caliber.
After the excellent breakthrough seasons they’ve had, those numbers have been upgraded. Holloway now looks like a legit first-line talent with a projected Net Rating of plus-7.2. Broberg looks like he has No. 1 defenseman potential and is up to plus-5.4. That’s an eight-goal improvement for both players, each ranking in the league’s top 10. The duo has turned into genuine core pieces, elevating St. Louis’ future trajectory by a considerable margin.
The dual offer sheets were a huge pro-scouting victory — especially on Broberg, who has proven not only that he’s a true top-four defender who can play up the lineup, but that he’s arguably even more. Since Parayko went down, Broberg has taken on the team’s tough minutes with Justin Faulk and the pair has crushed it. That audition in that role is a big eye-opener for what Broberg can be going forward, and what the Blues can be with him.
2. Oilers without McDavid and Draisaitl
We don’t get many examples of the Oilers without Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at the same time, but any results we do get are always fascinating. Edmonton has played five games this year without its star duo and has been obliterated in those games, going 1-4-0 while getting outscored 20-11. Three of those games were against bottom-feeding teams, too.
Perhaps more interesting is how the team’s other stars have looked. Any player is going to look worse without their team’s best players in front of them, and it’s more complex than simply looking at how they fare in games without them. Still, it’s an interesting data point toward how much they can drive on their own.
The good: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has a 57 percent xG rate and a largely unchanged Game Score of 0.68.
The bad: Hyman has three points as well, but his xG has dropped to 53 percent and his average Game Score is down to 0.38.
The ugly: Evan Bouchard has four points, but his xG has been barely above even and he’s been outscored 9-0 at five-on-five. His Game Score: minus-1.24. Ouch.
Granted, Bouchard has also been without main partner Mattias Ekholm for three of those games, but you’d still expect a lot more out of him — even on his own.
Kings goaltender Darcy Kuemper has been unbeatable lately. (Robert Hanashiro / Imagn Images)
3. Kuemper rounding into playoff form
One reason to believe the fourth time might be the charm for the Kings against the Oilers this season is that Los Angeles finally has someone it can really depend on between the pipes. For the year, Darcy Kuemper has saved 29.3 goals above expected, the third-best mark in the league. And he’s been especially unbeatable lately. Over the last month, Kuemper has a .951 and has saved 15.7 goals above expected in just 13 games.
4. MacKenzie Weegar, defensive engine
That Calgary is still hanging around the playoff race is a big surprise given what was expected of the Flames to start the season. Their inability to score only adds to the shock.
One reason the Flames are still here (aside from Dustin Wolf)? The stellar play of MacKenzie Weegar. He’s the only Flames defender with an xG rate above 50 percent and he leads the team with 56.5 percent of the goals. That’s a result of sturdy defensive play, where the Flames have only allowed 2.37 xGA/60 and 1.8 GA/60. It’s led to a plus-6.2 Defensive Rating, one of the league’s absolute best marks. Weegar has been a rock for the Flames.
5. Ducklings look ready to take off
Since the 4 Nations Face-Off, Anaheim’s young forward core has played some of the best hockey of their young careers. Over those 23 games, Mason McTavish has been a point-per-game player, Leo Carlsson is close, Cutter Gauthier has 18 points and even Trevor Zegras has 15 points in 20 games. All four have also outscored opponents at five-on-five with decent xG numbers, too. McTavish has been especially impressive with a team-best 54 percent rate.
If this is a sign of things to come, the Ducks could be very interesting next season. They look like they’re next up as a rebuilding team ready to take a step.
6. Stars struggling at five-on-five without Heiskanen
Since Jan. 28, Heiskanen’s last game this season, the Stars are 18-5-5 and hold one of the best records in hockey during that stretch. But not everything is as rosy as it seems under the hood.
A scintillating power play (fourth over the time frame) and strong goaltending (20 goals saved above expected between Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith) have papered over the fact the Stars have just a 47.8 percent xG rate since Heiskanen went down. That’s the league’s 25th-best mark and worrying news considering the team will be without Heiskanen for the opening round.
Eating tough minutes is a difficult and sometimes thankless job and the Stars are feeling the effects of losing their key minutes eater. Heiskanen’s absence has led to some heavy drops in numbers across the board as Thomas Harley has been forced to take on some tougher minutes and Cody Ceci has been thrust into a bigger role than he can handle.
Things have worked out well so far, but a date against the Avalanche in Round 1 will be very difficult. Matching Ceci up against Nathan MacKinnon will likely not go well.
7. Has Shesterkin been a letdown since the new contract?
Since signing an eight-year deal that pays him $11.5 million per season, Igor Shesterkin has had a tough time keeping pucks out of the net. He has just an .899 save percentage, a slightly below-average mark.
That’s not the whole story, though. In those 39 games, Shesterkin has still saved 15.4 goals above expected, which is still one of the top marks in the league. The difference in environment is worth nearly 17 goals, the second-highest mark in the league over the time frame behind only Sam Montembeault.
Essentially, the Rangers’ defense has completely hung Shesterkin out to dry. It’s no wonder he’s currently crumbling under the heavy burden the team has put on him.
8. Rangers’ power-play disaster
Since the trade deadline, the Rangers have completely crashed out of the playoff race with a 5-8-2 record. One reason for that: Their once-vaunted power play has betrayed them. Over that time frame, the Rangers are first in the league with 11.3 expected goals per 60 with the man advantage. Actual amount: 2.8 goals per 60, the second-worst mark in the league.
That’s some bad timing to have some bad luck, but it also speaks to a dire lack of execution when the team needed it most. For a team that seemed to have so much dawg in ‘em last season, their bark has had zero bite this season.
9. Maple Leafs’ five-forward power-play update
Early on in the season, I noted Toronto’s risky five-forward power play gambit wasn’t panning out due to many defensive breakdowns. Really, the group just needed some time to settle and figure things out — they’ve been lights out over the last few months.
Since the holiday break, the Leafs’ five-forward power play has scored 15.4 goals per 60 with the man advantage while allowing 1.9 against. That’s a worthy trade-off, and a sizeable improvement to where the five-forward unit was before the break: 10.4 goals per 60 and 6.9 (!) against. Things have really improved on the expected goal front, too.
After limping through multiple playoffs with a consistently anemic power play, this year’s version looks ready to finally provide the Leafs with an edge.
10. Pastrnak’s island
David Pastrnak’s Net Rating this season: plus-19.6. The next closest Bruin is Morgan Geekie at plus-8.5 — an 11.1 goal difference. That’s the largest chasm in the league. What Pastrnak has accomplished this season despite the dwindling amount of talent around him has been absurd.
11. Lohrei struggling without the puck
Aside from a stunning 7-2 win on Tuesday, the Bruins have been an absolute mess since the deadline. Trading away key players is part of it, but so is missing the team’s top two defensemen: Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm.
That’s led to a lot of ice time for Mason Lohrei and it has not gone very well. The young defender has just a 33 percent xG rate since the deadline and has been on the ice for 3.51 xGA/60, a team worst. In 15 games, he’s been outscored 22-8 at five-on-five.
The wildest part? He’s not even playing tough minutes. The offensive quality of his opponents ranks fifth among Bruins defenders since the deadline. If Lohrei wants to prove he has a long NHL future, he needs to clean things up considerably without the puck. His projected Defensive Rating of minus-6.0 grades out as the worst in the league.
12. Thompson’s lack of power-play scoring
Since 2007-08, 49 players have scored 45 goals in a season. Just one has managed the feat with fewer than 10 power-play goals: Kyle Connor in 2021-22 with eight. Tage Thompson has 44 goals this year, with just seven on the man advantage. Imagine if the Sabres could build a real power play around him?
Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson has made a strong case for the Calder Trophy. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
13. Lane Hutson: Calder lock
Folks, the Calder is a wrap. How do you vote for anyone but Lane Hutson?
The Montreal superstar continues to climb the ranks and has been an absolute beast. Since 4 Nations, Hutson has an average Game Score of 2.05 — the highest mark in the league. That surge has put Hutson’s Net Rating at plus-12.8 for the year, the 10th-best mark among all defensemen. Hutson’s play of late has put his rookie season in the same stratosphere as Cale Makar’s; he’s been that good.
But we can go a step further. Hutson didn’t start this strong; he often did too much with the puck early on and struggled mightily without it as a result. It wasn’t until December that things really clicked. Not being paired with David Savard helped, as did getting a spot on PP1 obviously, but it was also a change in his game that sealed it.
Colleague Arpon Basu put it really well:
“He realized he doesn’t need to produce an offensive chance every single time he touches the puck. All the shoulder fakes and shimmies we saw on highlights every night in October and most of November largely disappeared, only used sparingly in specific moments. He basically learned how to live another day, and that’s changed everything with him.”
Hutson is top 10 in defenseman Net Rating for the season, but he obviously looks even better since Nov. 26. That was his first game away from Savard and his first game taking over the top power play. Here are the defensemen Net Rating ranks since:
- Cale Makar: +18.4
- Zach Werenski: +16.2
- Lane Hutson: +13.6
Hutson is already a superstar.
14. Hughes not at 100 percent?
I was a bit shocked to see Quinn Hughes rank so low (11th) during the above time frame. Part of that is games missed (he’s fifth in pace), but the other part is what he’s done since returning from injury.
In 17 games since the 4 Nations break, Hughes has 15 points and 50 percent of the expected goals and has been outscored 20-10. He’s managed that despite an average opponent Offensive Rating of just 0.59 — fourth on the team and 131st among all defensemen. Essentially, he’s struggled despite playing second-pair minutes against a soft schedule. It’s led to an average Game Score of just 0.21.
Compare that to what he was doing prior to injury: he had 59 points in 47 games and 55 percent of the expected goals and outscored opponents 52-34. He had an average Game Score of 1.60 and was the best defenseman in hockey. He’s looked like a shade of that since.
Part of that is likely due to what’s happened to the team around him, including key injuries to Elias Pettersson and Filip Chytil, devastating the team’s center depth. But the bigger part might just be that whatever was ailing Hughes in February probably still is. He hasn’t been himself and that’s helped seal Vancouver’s playoff fate.
15. The Rod Langway Award
There’s no award for the best defensive defenseman, but if there were, here’s a good list based on Defensive Rating. One per team, tough minutes only. Here are the top 10.
- Vladislav Gavrikov: +11.6
- Esa Lindell: +10.3
- Ryan McDonagh: +9.7
- Brayden McNabb: +9.7
- Jonas Siegenthaler: +9.2
- Chris Tanev: +9.2
- Moritz Seider: +7.7
- Josh Morrissey: +7.4
- Gustav Forsling: +6.5
- Jaccob Slavin: +6.4
16. Home-ice advantage on the rise
In 2021-22, the first post-COVID-19 season with fans in every arena, home teams outscored opponents by 0.123 goals per game and won 53.6 percent of games. The following season, it dropped to 0.095 goals per game while winning 52.4 percent of games and then bounced back to 54.1 percent and 0.111 goals per game last season.
That’s three years in which the home team won just over 53 percent of games and outscored opponents by 0.11 goals per game. This season? Home-ice advantage is up all the way to 56.4 percent, with home teams outscoring opponents by 0.167 goals per game.
That’ll be something to watch come playoff time, where the margins have become very thin. Home ice matters a lot more than it has in recent seasons.
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Stat Cards
(Photo: Jeff Curry / Imagn Images)